This study proposes a framework of Uncertainty-based Group Decision Support System (UGDSS). It provides a platform for multiple criteria decision analysis in six aspects including (1) decision environment, (2) decision problem, (3) decision group, (4) decision conflict, (5) decision schemes and (6) group negotiation. Based on multiple artificial intelligent technologies, this framework provides reliable support for the comprehensive manipulation of applications and advanced decision approaches through the design of an integrated multi-agents architecture.

Inductive learning is based on inferring a general rule from a finite data set and using it to label new data. In transduction one attempts to solve the problem of using a labeled training set to label a set of unlabeled points, which are given to the learner prior to learning. Although transduction seems at the outset to be an easier task than induction, there have not been many provably useful algorithms for transduction. Moreover, the precise relation between induction and transduction has not yet been determined. The main theoretical developments related to transduction were presented by Vapnik more than twenty years ago. One of Vapnik's basic results is a rather tight error bound for transductive classification based on an exact computation of the hypergeometric tail. While tight, this bound is given implicitly via a computational routine. Our first contribution is a somewhat looser but explicit characterization of a slightly extended PAC-Bayesian version of Vapnik's transductive bound. This characterization is obtained using concentration inequalities for the tail of sums of random variables obtained by sampling without replacement. We then derive error bounds for compression schemes such as (transductive) support vector machines and for transduction algorithms based on clustering. The main observation used for deriving these new error bounds and algorithms is that the unlabeled test points, which in the transductive setting are known in advance, can be used in order to construct useful data dependent prior distributions over the hypothesis space.

This paper presents a new classifier combination technique based on the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence. The Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is a powerful method for combining measures of evidence from different classifiers. However, since each of the available methods that estimates the evidence of classifiers has its own limitations, we propose here a new implementation which adapts to training data so that the overall mean square error is minimized. The proposed technique is shown to outperform most available classifier combination methods when tested on three different classification problems.

Information about user preferences plays a key role in automated decision making. In many domains it is desirable to assess such preferences in a qualitative rather than quantitative way. In this paper, we propose a qualitative graphical representation of preferences that reflects conditional dependence and independence of preference statements under a ceteris paribus (all else being equal) interpretation. Such a representation is often compact and arguably quite natural in many circumstances. We provide a formal semantics for this model, and describe how the structure of the network can be exploited in several inference tasks, such as determining whether one outcome dominates (is preferred to) another, ordering a set outcomes according to the preference relation, and constructing the best outcome subject to available evidence.

We state the problem of inverse reinforcement learning in terms of preference elicitation, resulting in a principled (Bayesian) statistical formulation. This generalises previous work on Bayesian inverse reinforcement learning and allows us to obtain a posterior distribution on the agent's preferences, policy and optionally, the obtained reward sequence, from observations. We examine the relation of the resulting approach to other statistical methods for inverse reinforcement learning via analysis and experimental results. We show that preferences can be determined accurately, even if the observed agent's policy is sub-optimal with respect to its own preferences. In that case, significantly improved policies with respect to the agent's preferences are obtained, compared to both other methods and to the performance of the demonstrated policy.

The aim of this chapter is twofold. In the first part we will provide a brief overview of the mathematical and statistical foundations of graphical models, along with their fundamental properties, estimation and basic inference procedures. In particular we will develop Markov networks (also known as Markov random fields) and Bayesian networks, which comprise most past and current literature on graphical models. In the second part we will review some applications of graphical models in systems biology.

We discuss the problem in which an autonomous vehicle must classify an object based on multiple views. We focus on the active classification setting, where the vehicle controls which views to select to best perform the classification. The problem is formulated as an extension to Bayesian active learning, and we show connections to recent theoretical guarantees in this area. We formally analyze the benefit of acting adaptively as new information becomes available. The analysis leads to a probabilistic algorithm for determining the best views to observe based on information theoretic costs. We validate our approach in two ways, both related to underwater inspection: 3D polyhedra recognition in synthetic depth maps and ship hull inspection with imaging sonar. These tasks encompass both the planning and recognition aspects of the active classification problem. The results demonstrate that actively planning for informative views can reduce the number of necessary views by up to 80% when compared to passive methods.

The purpose of the New York Workshop on Computer, Earth and Space Sciences is to bring together the New York area's finest Astronomers, Statisticians, Computer Scientists, Space and Earth Scientists to explore potential synergies between their respective fields. The 2011 edition (CESS2011) was a great success, and we would like to thank all of the presenters and participants for attending. This year was also special as it included authors from the upcoming book titled "Advances in Machine Learning and Data Mining for Astronomy". Over two days, the latest advanced techniques used to analyze the vast amounts of information now available for the understanding of our universe and our planet were presented. These proceedings attempt to provide a small window into what the current state of research is in this vast interdisciplinary field and we'd like to thank the speakers who spent the time to contribute to this volume.

In this paper we consider sparse and identifiable linear latent variable (factor) and linear Bayesian network models for parsimonious analysis of multivariate data. We propose a computationally efficient method for joint parameter and model inference, and model comparison. It consists of a fully Bayesian hierarchy for sparse models using slab and spike priors (two-component delta-function and continuous mixtures), non-Gaussian latent factors and a stochastic search over the ordering of the variables. The framework, which we call SLIM (Sparse Linear Identifiable Multivariate modeling), is validated and bench-marked on artificial and real biological data sets. SLIM is closest in spirit to LiNGAM (Shimizu et al., 2006), but differs substantially in inference, Bayesian network structure learning and model comparison. Experimentally, SLIM performs equally well or better than LiNGAM with comparable computational complexity. We attribute this mainly to the stochastic search strategy used, and to parsimony (sparsity and identifiability), which is an explicit part of the model. We propose two extensions to the basic i.i.d. linear framework: non-linear dependence on observed variables, called SNIM (Sparse Non-linear Identifiable Multivariate modeling) and allowing for correlations between latent variables, called CSLIM (Correlated SLIM), for the temporal and/or spatial data. The source code and scripts are available from http://cogsys.imm.dtu.dk/slim/.

We present a probabilistic generative model for timing deviations in expressive music performance. The structure of the proposed model is equivalent to a switching state space model. The switch variables correspond to discrete note locations as in a musical score. The continuous hidden variables denote the tempo. We formulate two well known music recognition problems, namely tempo tracking and automatic transcription (rhythm quantization) as filtering and maximum a posteriori (MAP) state estimation tasks. Exact computation of posterior features such as the MAP state is intractable in this model class, so we introduce Monte Carlo methods for integration and optimization. We compare Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods (such as Gibbs sampling, simulated annealing and iterative improvement) and sequential Monte Carlo methods (particle filters). Our simulation results suggest better results with sequential methods. The methods can be applied in both online and batch scenarios such as tempo tracking and transcription and are thus potentially useful in a number of music applications such as adaptive automatic accompaniment, score typesetting and music information retrieval.