Kalman Filtering is a computational tool with widespread applications in robotics, financial and weather forecasting, environmental engineering and defense. Given observation and state transition models, the Kalman Filter (KF) recursively estimates the state variables of a dynamic system. However, the KF requires a cubic time matrix inversion operation at every timestep which prevents its application in domains with large numbers of state variables. We propose Relational Gaussian Models to represent and model dynamic systems with large numbers of variables efficiently. Furthermore, we devise an exact lifted Kalman Filtering algorithm which takes only linear time in the number of random variables at every timestep. We prove that our algorithm takes linear time in the number of state variables even when individual observations apply to each variable. To our knowledge, this is the first lifted (linear time) algorithm for filtering with continuous dynamic relational models.

In this paper, we tackle the challenges of multi-label classification by developing a general conditional dependency network model. The proposed model is a cyclic directed graphical model, which provides an intuitive representation for the dependencies among multiple label variables, and a well integrated framework for efficient model training using binary classifiers and label predictions using Gibbs sampling inference. Our experiments show the proposed conditional model can effectively exploit the label dependency to improve multi-label classification performance.

Despite the importance of academic advising to student This paper describes work related to stochastic modeling and success, academic advising services are often found to decision-theoretic (DT) planning methods applicable to the be inconsistent, and are often not treated as a high priority real-world domain of academic advising.

The growing number of statistical topic models led to the need to better evaluate their output. Traditional evaluation means estimate the model’s fitness to unseen data. It has recently been proven than the output of human judgment can greatly differ from these measures. Thus the need for methods that better emulate human judgment is stringent. In this paper we present a system that computes the usefulness of individual topics from a given model on the basis of information drawn from a given ontology, in this case WordNet. The notion of utility is regarded as the ability to attribute a concept to each topic and separate words related to the topic from the unrelated ones based on that concept. In multiple experiments we prove the correlation between the automatic evaluation method and the answers received from human evaluators, for various corpora and difficulty levels. By changing the evaluation focus from a statistical one to a conceptual one we were able to detect which topics are conceptually meaningful and rank them accordingly.

Learning to rank has received great attention in recent years as it plays a crucial role in information retrieval. The existing concept of learning to rank assumes that each training sample is associated with an instance and a reliable label. However, in practice, this assumption does not necessarily hold true. This study focuses on the learning to rank when each training instance is labeled by multiple annotators that may be unreliable. In such a scenario, no accurate labels can be obtained. This study proposes two learning approaches. One is to simply estimate the ground truth first and then to learn a ranking model with it. The second approach is a maximum likelihood learning approach which estimates the ground truth and learns the ranking model iteratively. The two approaches have been tested on both synthetic and real-world data. The results reveal that the maximum likelihood approach outperforms the first approach significantly and is comparable of achieving results with the learning model considering reliable labels. Further more, both the approaches have been applied for ranking the Web visual clutter.

Monitoring team activity is beneficial when human teams cooperate in the enactment of a joint plan. Monitoring allows teams to maintain awareness of each other's progress within the plan and it enables anticipation of information needs. Humans find this difficult, particularly in time-stressed and uncertain environments. In this paper we introduce a probabilistic model, based on Conditional Random Fields, to automatically recognise the composition of teams and the team activities in relation to a plan. The team composition and activities are recognised incrementally by interpreting a stream of spatio-temporal observations.

Topic models have a wide range of applications, including modeling of text documents, images, user preferences, product rankings, and many others. However, learning optimal models may be difficult, especially for large problems. The reason is that inference techniques such as Gibbs sampling often converge to suboptimal models due to the abundance of local minima in large datasets. In this paper, we propose a general method of improving the performance of topic models. The method, called 'grouping transform', works by introducing auxiliary variables which represent assignments of the original model tokens to groups. Using these auxiliary variables, it becomes possible to resample an entire group of tokens at a time. This allows the sampler to make larger state space moves. As a result, better models are learned and performance is improved. The proposed ideas are illustrated on several topic models and several text and image datasets. We show that the grouping transform significantly improves performance over standard models.

Robots must perform tasks efficiently and reliably while acting underuncertainty. One way to achieve efficiency is to give the robot common-sense knowledge about the structure of the world. Reliable robot behaviour can be achieved by modelling the uncertaintyin the world probabilistically. We present a robot system that combines these two approaches and demonstrate the improvements in efficiency and reliability that result. Our first contribution is a probabilistic relational model integrating common-sense knowledge about the world in general, with observations of a particular environment. Our second contribution is a continual planning system which is able to plan in the large problems posed by that model, by automatically switching between decision-theoretic and classical procedures. We evaluate our system on object search tasks in two different real-world indoor environments. By reasoning about the trade-offs between possible courses of action with different informational effects, and exploiting the cues and general structures of those environments, our robot is able to consistently demonstrate efficient and reliable goal-directed behaviour.

This paper addresses one of the key components of the mining process: the geological prediction of natural resources from spatially distributed measurements. We present a novel approach combining undirected graphical models with ensemble classifiers to provide 3D geological models from multiple sensors installed in an autonomous drill rig. Drill sensor measurements used for drilling automation, known as measurement-while-drilling (MWD) data, have the potential to provide an estimate of the geological properties of the rocks being drilled. The proposed method maps MWD parameters to rock types while considering spatial relationships, i.e., associating measurements obtained from neighboring regions. We use a conditional random field with local information provided by boosted decision trees to jointly reason about the rock categories of neighboring measurements. To validate the approach, MWD data was collected from a drill rig operating at an iron ore mine. Graphical models of the 3D structure present in real data sets possess a high number of nodes, edges and cycles, making them intractable for exact inference. We provide a comparison of three approximate inference methods to calculate the most probable distribution of class labels. The empirical results demonstrate the benefits of spatial modeling through graphical models to improve classification performance.

In real-world applications, the effective integration of learning and reasoning in a cognitive agent model is a difficult task. However, such integration may lead to a better understanding, use and construction of more realistic models. Unfortunately, existing models are either oversimplified or require much processing time, which is unsuitable for online learning and reasoning. Currently, controlled environments like training simulators do not effectively integrate learning and reasoning. In particular, higher-order concepts and cognitive abilities have many unknown temporal relations with the data, making it impossible to represent such relationships by hand. We introduce a novel cognitive agent model and architecture for online learning and reasoning that seeks to effectively represent, learn and reason in complex training environments. The agent architecture of the model combines neural learning with symbolic knowledge representation. It is capable of learning new hypotheses from observed data, and infer new beliefs based on these hypotheses. Furthermore, it deals with uncertainty and errors in the data using a Bayesian inference model. The validation of the model on real-time simulations and the results presented here indicate the promise of the approach when performing online learning and reasoning in real-world scenarios, with possible applications in a range of areas.