Uncertainty
Implicit encoding of prior probabilities in optimal neural populations
Ganguli, Deep, Simoncelli, Eero P.
Optimal coding provides a guiding principle for understanding the representation of sensory variables in neural populations. Here we consider the influence of a prior probability distribution over sensory variables on the optimal allocation of cells and spikes in a neural population. We model the spikes of each cell as samples from an independent Poisson process with rate governed by an associated tuning curve. For this response model, we approximate the Fisher information in terms of the density and amplitude of the tuning curves, under the assumption that tuning width varies inversely with cell density. We consider a family of objective functions based on the expected value, over the sensory prior, of a functional of the Fisher information. This family includes lower bounds on mutual information and perceptual discriminability as special cases. In all cases, we find a closed form expression for the optimum, in which the density and gain of the cells in the population are power law functions of the stimulus prior. This also implies a power law relationship between the prior and perceptual discriminability. We show preliminary evidence that the theory successfully predicts the relationship between empirically measured stimulus priors, physiologically measured neural response properties (cell density, tuning widths, and firing rates), and psychophysically measured discrimination thresholds.
A Bayesian Framework for Figure-Ground Interpretation
Froyen, Vicky, Feldman, Jacob, Singh, Manish
Figure/ground assignment, in which the visual image is divided into nearer (figural) andfarther (ground) surfaces, is an essential step in visual processing, but its underlying computational mechanisms are poorly understood. Figural assignment (often referred to as border ownership) can vary along a contour, suggesting a spatially distributed process whereby local and global cues are combined to yield local estimates of border ownership. In this paper we model figure/ground estimation ina Bayesian belief network, attempting to capture the propagation of border ownership across the image as local cues (contour curvature and T-junctions) interact withmore global cues to yield a figure/ground assignment. Our network includes as a nonlocal factor skeletal (medial axis) structure, under the hypothesis that medial structure "draws" border ownership so that borders are owned by the skeletal hypothesis that best explains them. We also briefly present a psychophysical experimentin which we measured local border ownership along a contour at various distances from an inducing cue (a T-junction).
Large Margin Learning of Upstream Scene Understanding Models
Zhu, Jun, Li, Li-jia, Fei-fei, Li, Xing, Eric P.
Upstream supervised topic models have been widely used for complicated scene understanding. However, existing maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) schemes can make the prediction model learning independent of latent topic discovery and result in an imbalanced prediction rule for scene classification. This paper presents a joint max-margin and max-likelihood learning method for upstream scene understanding models, in which latent topic discovery and prediction model estimation are closely coupled and well-balanced. The optimization problem is efficiently solved with a variational EM procedure, which iteratively solves an online loss-augmented SVM. We demonstrate the advantages of the large-margin approach on both an 8-category sports dataset and the 67-class MIT indoor scene dataset for scene categorization.
Probabilistic Multi-Task Feature Selection
Zhang, Yu, Yeung, Dit-Yan, Xu, Qian
Recently, some variants of the $l_1$ norm, particularly matrix norms such as the $l_{1,2}$ and $l_{1,\infty}$ norms, have been widely used in multi-task learning, compressed sensing and other related areas to enforce sparsity via joint regularization. In this paper, we unify the $l_{1,2}$ and $l_{1,\infty}$ norms by considering a family of $l_{1,q}$ norms for $1 < q\le\infty$ and study the problem of determining the most appropriate sparsity enforcing norm to use in the context of multi-task feature selection. Using the generalized normal distribution, we provide a probabilistic interpretation of the general multi-task feature selection problem using the $l_{1,q}$ norm. Based on this probabilistic interpretation, we develop a probabilistic model using the noninformative Jeffreys prior. We also extend the model to learn and exploit more general types of pairwise relationships between tasks. For both versions of the model, we devise expectation-maximization~(EM) algorithms to learn all model parameters, including $q$, automatically. Experiments have been conducted on two cancer classification applications using microarray gene expression data.
Learning Multiple Tasks with a Sparse Matrix-Normal Penalty
In this paper, we propose a matrix-variate normal penalty with sparse inverse covariances to couple multiple tasks. Learning multiple (parametric) models can be viewed as estimating a matrix of parameters, where rows and columns of the matrix correspond to tasks and features, respectively. Following the matrix-variate normal density, we design a penalty that decomposes the full covariance of matrix elements into the Kronecker product of row covariance and column covariance, which characterizes both task relatedness and feature representation. Several recently proposed methods are variants of the special cases of this formulation. To address the overfitting issue and select meaningful task and feature structures, we include sparse covariance selection into our matrix-normal regularization via L-1 penalties on task and feature inverse covariances. We empirically study the proposed method and compare with related models in two real-world problems: detecting landmines in multiple fields and recognizing faces between different subjects. Experimental results show that the proposed framework provides an effective and flexible way to model various different structures of multiple tasks.
Probabilistic Inference and Differential Privacy
Williams, Oliver, Mcsherry, Frank
We identify and investigate a strong connection between probabilistic inference and differential privacy, the latter being a recent privacy definition that permits only indirect observation of data through noisy measurement. Previous research on differential privacy has focused on designing measurement processes whose output is likely to be useful on its own. We consider the potential of applying probabilistic inference to the measurements and measurement process to derive posterior distributions over the data sets and model parameters thereof. We find that probabilistic inference can improve accuracy, integrate multiple observations, measure uncertainty, and even provide posterior distributions over quantities that were not directly measured.
The Multidimensional Wisdom of Crowds
Welinder, Peter, Branson, Steve, Perona, Pietro, Belongie, Serge J.
Distributing labeling tasks among hundreds or thousands of annotators is an increasingly importantmethod for annotating large datasets. We present a method for estimating the underlying value (e.g. the class) of each image from (noisy) annotations providedby multiple annotators. Our method is based on a model of the image formation and annotation process. Each image has different characteristics that are represented in an abstract Euclidean space. Each annotator is modeled as a multidimensional entity with variables representing competence, expertise and bias. This allows the model to discover and represent groups of annotators that have different sets of skills and knowledge, as well as groups of images that differ qualitatively. We find that our model predicts ground truth labels on both synthetic andreal data more accurately than state of the art methods. Experiments also show that our model, starting from a set of binary labels, may discover rich information, such as different "schools of thought" amongst the annotators, and can group together images belonging to separate categories.
Sidestepping Intractable Inference with Structured Ensemble Cascades
Weiss, David, Sapp, Benjamin, Taskar, Ben
For many structured prediction problems, complex models often require adopting approximate inference techniques such as variational methods or sampling, which generally provide no satisfactory accuracy guarantees. In this work, we propose sidestepping intractable inference altogether by learning ensembles of tractable sub-models as part of a structured prediction cascade. We focus in particular on problems with high-treewidth and large state-spaces, which occur in many computer vision tasks. Unlike other variational methods, our ensembles do not enforce agreement between sub-models, but filter the space of possible outputs by simply adding and thresholding the max-marginals of each constituent model. Our framework jointly estimates parameters for all models in the ensemble for each level of the cascade by minimizing a novel, convex loss function, yet requires only a linear increase in computation over learning or inference in a single tractable sub-model. We provide a generalization bound on the filtering loss of the ensemble as a theoretical justification of our approach, and we evaluate our method on both synthetic data and the task of estimating articulated human pose from challenging videos. We find that our approach significantly outperforms loopy belief propagation on the synthetic data and a state-of-the-art model on the pose estimation/tracking problem.
Joint Analysis of Time-Evolving Binary Matrices and Associated Documents
Wang, Eric, Liu, Dehong, Silva, Jorge, Carin, Lawrence, Dunson, David B.
We consider problems for which one has incomplete binary matrices that evolve with time (e.g., the votes of legislators on particular legislation, with each year characterized by a different such matrix). An objective of such analysis is to infer structure and inter-relationships underlying the matrices, here defined by latent features associated with each axis of the matrix. In addition, it is assumed that documents are available for the entities associated with at least one of the matrix axes. By jointly analyzing the matrices and documents, one may be used to inform the other within the analysis, and the model offers the opportunity to predict matrix values (e.g., votes) based only on an associated document (e.g., legislation). The research presented here merges two areas of machine-learning that have previously been investigated separately: incomplete-matrix analysis and topic modeling. The analysis is performed from a Bayesian perspective, with efficient inference constituted via Gibbs sampling. The framework is demonstrated by considering all voting data and available documents (legislation) during the 220-year lifetime of the United States Senate and House of Representatives.
Optimal Bayesian Recommendation Sets and Myopically Optimal Choice Query Sets
Viappiani, Paolo, Boutilier, Craig
Bayesian approaches to utility elicitation typically adopt (myopic) expected value of information (EVOI)as a natural criterion for selecting queries. However, EVOI-optimization is usually computationally prohibitive. In this paper, we examine EVOI optimization using choice queries, queries in which a user is ask to select her most preferred product from a set. We show that, under very general assumptions, the optimal choice query w.r.t. EVOI coincides with the optimal recommendation set, that is, a set maximizing the expected utility ofthe user selection. Since recommendation set optimization is a simpler, submodular problem, this can greatly reduce the complexity of both exact and approximate (greedy) computation of optimal choice queries. We also examine the case where user responses to choice queries are error-prone (using both constant and mixed multinomial logit noise models) and provide worst-case guarantees. Finally we present a local search technique for query optimization that works extremely well with large outcome spaces.