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 Uncertainty


A Human-Centric Approach to Group-Based Context-Awareness

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The emerging need for qualitative approaches in context-aware information processing calls for proper modeling of context information and efficient handling of its inherent uncertainty resulted from human interpretation and usage. Many of the current approaches to context-awareness either lack a solid theoretical basis for modeling or ignore important requirements such as modularity, high-order uncertainty management and group-based context-awareness. Therefore, their real-world application and extendability remains limited. In this paper, we present f-Context as a service-based context-awareness framework, based on language-action perspective (LAP) theory for modeling. Then we identify some of the complex, informational parts of context which contain high-order uncertainties due to differences between members of the group in defining them. An agent-based perceptual computer architecture is proposed for implementing f-Context that uses computing with words (CWW) for handling uncertainty. The feasibility of f-Context is analyzed using a realistic scenario involving a group of mobile users. We believe that the proposed approach can open the door to future research on context-awareness by offering a theoretical foundation based on human communication, and a service-based layered architecture which exploits CWW for context-aware, group-based and platform-independent access to information systems.


A Monte-Carlo AIXI Approximation

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

This paper introduces a principled approach for the design of a scalable general reinforcement learning agent. Our approach is based on a direct approximation of AIXI, a Bayesian optimality notion for general reinforcement learning agents. Previously, it has been unclear whether the theory of AIXI could motivate the design of practical algorithms. We answer this hitherto open question in the affirmative, by providing the first computationally feasible approximation to the AIXI agent. To develop our approximation, we introduce a new Monte-Carlo Tree Search algorithm along with an agent-specific extension to the Context Tree Weighting algorithm. Empirically, we present a set of encouraging results on a variety of stochastic and partially observable domains. We conclude by proposing a number of directions for future research.


Inference of global clusters from locally distributed data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider the problem of analyzing the heterogeneity of clustering distributions for multiple groups of observed data, each of which is indexed by a covariate value, and inferring global clusters arising from observations aggregated over the covariate domain. We propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric method reposing on the formalism of spatial modeling and a nested hierarchy of Dirichlet processes. We provide an analysis of the model properties, relating and contrasting the notions of local and global clusters. We also provide an efficient inference algorithm, and demonstrate the utility of our method in several data examples, including the problem of object tracking and a global clustering analysis of functional data where the functional identity information is not available.


Minimum mean square distance estimation of a subspace

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider the problem of subspace estimation in a Bayesian setting. Since we are operating in the Grassmann manifold, the usual approach which consists of minimizing the mean square error (MSE) between the true subspace $U$ and its estimate $\hat{U}$ may not be adequate as the MSE is not the natural metric in the Grassmann manifold. As an alternative, we propose to carry out subspace estimation by minimizing the mean square distance (MSD) between $U$ and its estimate, where the considered distance is a natural metric in the Grassmann manifold, viz. the distance between the projection matrices. We show that the resulting estimator is no longer the posterior mean of $U$ but entails computing the principal eigenvectors of the posterior mean of $U U^{T}$. Derivation of the MMSD estimator is carried out in a few illustrative examples including a linear Gaussian model for the data and a Bingham or von Mises Fisher prior distribution for $U$. In all scenarios, posterior distributions are derived and the MMSD estimator is obtained either analytically or implemented via a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method. The method is shown to provide accurate estimates even when the number of samples is lower than the dimension of $U$. An application to hyperspectral imagery is finally investigated.


Extended Active Learning Method

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Active Learning Method (ALM) is a soft computing method which is used for modeling and control, based on fuzzy logic. Although ALM has shown that it acts well in dynamic environments, its operators cannot support it very well in complex situations due to losing data. Thus ALM can find better membership functions if more appropriate operators be chosen for it. This paper substituted two new operators instead of ALM original ones; which consequently renewed finding membership functions in a way superior to conventional ALM. This new method is called Extended Active Learning Method (EALM).


Global seismic monitoring as probabilistic inference

Neural Information Processing Systems

The International Monitoring System (IMS) is a global network of sensors whose purpose is to identify potential violations of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), primarily through detection and localization of seismic events. We report on the first stage of a project to improve on the current automated software system with a Bayesian inference system that computes the most likely global event history given the record of local sensor data. The new system, VISA (Vertically Integrated Seismological Analysis), is based on empirically calibrated, generative models of event occurrence, signal propagation, and signal detection. VISA exhibits significantly improved precision and recall compared to the current operational system and is able to detect events that are missed even by the human analysts who post-process the IMS output.


Group Sparse Coding with a Laplacian Scale Mixture Prior

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose a class of sparse coding models that utilizes a Laplacian Scale Mixture (LSM) prior to model dependencies among coefficients. Each coefficient is modeled as a Laplacian distribution with a variable scale parameter, with a Gamma distribution prior over the scale parameter. We show that, due to the conjugacy of the Gamma prior, it is possible to derive efficient inference procedures for both the coefficients and the scale parameter. When the scale parameters of a group of coefficients are combined into a single variable, it is possible to describe the dependencies that occur due to common amplitude fluctuations among coefficients, which have been shown to constitute a large fraction of the redundancy in natural images. We show that, as a consequence of this group sparse coding, the resulting inference of the coefficients follows a divisive normalization rule, and that this may be efficiently implemented a network architecture similar to that which has been proposed to occur in primary visual cortex. We also demonstrate improvements in image coding and compressive sensing recovery using the LSM model.


Construction of Dependent Dirichlet Processes based on Poisson Processes

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a novel method for constructing dependent Dirichlet processes. The approach exploits the intrinsic relationship between Dirichlet and Poisson processes in order to create a Markov chain of Dirichlet processes suitable for use as a prior over evolving mixture models. The method allows for the creation, removal, and location variation of component models over time while maintaining the property that the random measures are marginally DP distributed. Additionally, we derive a Gibbs sampling algorithm for model inference and test it on both synthetic and real data. Empirical results demonstrate that the approach is effective in estimating dynamically varying mixture models.


Construction of Dependent Dirichlet Processes based on Poisson Processes

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a novel method for constructing dependent Dirichlet processes. The approach exploits the intrinsic relationship between Dirichlet and Poisson processes in order to create a Markov chain of Dirichlet processes suitable for use as a prior over evolving mixture models. The method allows for the creation, removal, and location variation of component models over time while maintaining the property that the random measures are marginally DP distributed. Additionally, we derive a Gibbs sampling algorithm for model inference and test it on both synthetic and real data. Empirical results demonstrate that the approach is effective in estimating dynamically varying mixture models.


An Approximate Inference Approach to Temporal Optimization in Optimal Control

Neural Information Processing Systems

Algorithms based on iterative local approximations present a practical approach to optimal control in robotic systems. However, they generally require the temporal parameters (for e.g. the movement duration or the time point of reaching an intermediate goal) to be specified \textit{a priori}. Here, we present a methodology that is capable of jointly optimising the temporal parameters in addition to the control command profiles. The presented approach is based on a Bayesian canonical time formulation of the optimal control problem, with the temporal mapping from canonical to real time parametrised by an additional control variable. An approximate EM algorithm is derived that efficiently optimises both the movement duration and control commands offering, for the first time, a practical approach to tackling generic via point problems in a systematic way under the optimal control framework. The proposed approach is evaluated on simulations of a redundant robotic plant.