We propose a new approach to the theoretical analysis of Loopy Belief Propagation (LBP) and the Bethe free energy (BFE) by establishing a formula to connect LBP and BFE with a graph zeta function. The proposed approach is applicable to a wide class of models including multinomial and Gaussian types. The connection derives a number of new theoretical results on LBP and BFE. This paper focuses two of such topics. One is the analysis of the region where the Hessian of the Bethe free energy is positive definite, which derives the non-convexity of BFE for graphs with multiple cycles, and a condition of convexity on a restricted set. This analysis also gives a new condition for the uniqueness of the LBP fixed point. The other result is to clarify the relation between the local stability of a fixed point of LBP and local minima of the BFE, which implies, for example, that a locally stable fixed point of the Gaussian LBP is a local minimum of the Gaussian Bethe free energy.

Deciding how to act in partially observable environments remains an active area of research. Identifying good sequences of decisions is particularly challenging when good control performance requires planning multiple steps into the future in domains with many states. Towards addressing this challenge, we present an online, forward-search algorithm called the Posterior Belief Distribution (PBD). PBD leverages a novel method for calculating the posterior distribution over beliefs that result after a sequence of actions is taken, given the set of observation sequences that could be received during this process. This method allows us to efficiently evaluate the expected reward of a sequence of primitive actions, which we refer to as macro-actions. We present a formal analysis of our approach, and examine its performance on two very large simulation experiments: scientific exploration and a target monitoring domain. We also demonstrate our algorithm being used to control a real robotic helicopter in a target monitoring experiment, which suggests that our approach has practical potential for planning in real-world, large partially observable domains where a multi-step lookahead is required to achieve good performance.

Bankruptcy prediction is very important for all the organization since it affects the economy and rise many social problems with high costs. There are large number of techniques have been developed to predict the bankruptcy, which helps the decision makers such as investors and financial analysts. One of the bankruptcy prediction models is the hybrid model using Fuzzy C-means clustering and MARS, which uses static ratios taken from the bank financial statements for prediction, which has its own theoretical advantages. The performance of existing bankruptcy model can be improved by selecting the best features dynamically depend on the nature of the firm. This dynamic selection can be accomplished by Genetic Algorithm and it improves the performance of prediction model..

In our recent paper we have established close relationships between state reduction of a fuzzy recognizer and resolution of a particular system of fuzzy relation equations. In that paper we have also studied reductions by means of those solutions which are fuzzy equivalences. In this paper we will see that in some cases better reductions can be obtained using the solutions of this system that are fuzzy quasi-orders. Generally, fuzzy quasi-orders and fuzzy equivalences are equally good in the state reduction, but we show that right and left invariant fuzzy quasi-orders give better reductions than right and left invariant fuzzy equivalences. We also show that alternate reductions by means of fuzzy quasi-orders give better results than alternate reductions by means of fuzzy equivalences. Furthermore we study a more general type of fuzzy quasi-orders, weakly right and left invariant ones, and we show that they are closely related to determinization of fuzzy recognizers. We also demonstrate some applications of weakly left invariant fuzzy quasi-orders in conflict analysis of fuzzy discrete event systems.

An algorithm running in O(1.1995n) is presented for counting models for exact satisfiability formulae(#XSAT). This is faster than the previously best algorithm which runs in O(1.2190n). In order to improve the efficiency of the algorithm, a new principle, i.e. the common literals principle, is addressed to simplify formulae. This allows us to eliminate more common literals. In addition, we firstly inject the resolution principles into solving #XSAT problem, and therefore this further improves the efficiency of the algorithm.

We present a novel variant of decision making based on the mathematical theory of separable Hilbert spaces. This mathematical structure captures the effect of superposition of composite prospects, including many incorporated intentions, which allows us to describe a variety of interesting fallacies and anomalies that have been reported to particularize the decision making of real human beings. The theory characterizes entangled decision making, non-commutativity of subsequent decisions, and intention interference. We demonstrate how the violation of the Savage's sure-thing principle, known as the disjunction effect, can be explained quantitatively as a result of the interference of intentions, when making decisions under uncertainty. The disjunction effects, observed in experiments, are accurately predicted using a theorem on interference alternation that we derive, which connects aversion-to-uncertainty to the appearance of negative interference terms suppressing the probability of actions. The conjunction fallacy is also explained by the presence of the interference terms. A series of experiments are analysed and shown to be in excellent agreement with a priori evaluation of interference effects. The conjunction fallacy is also shown to be a sufficient condition for the disjunction effect and novel experiments testing the combined interplay between the two effects are suggested.

A plausible definition of "reasoning" could be "algebraically manipulating previously acquired knowledge in order to answer a new question". This definition covers first-order logical inference or probabilistic inference. It also includes much simpler manipulations commonly used to build large learning systems. For instance, we can build an optical character recognition system by first training a character segmenter, an isolated character recognizer, and a language model, using appropriate labeled training sets. Adequately concatenating these modules and fine tuning the resulting system can be viewed as an algebraic operation in a space of models. The resulting model answers a new question, that is, converting the image of a text page into a computer readable text. This observation suggests a conceptual continuity between algebraically rich inference systems, such as logical or probabilistic inference, and simple manipulations, such as the mere concatenation of trainable learning systems. Therefore, instead of trying to bridge the gap between machine learning systems and sophisticated "all-purpose" inference mechanisms, we can instead algebraically enrich the set of manipulations applicable to training systems, and build reasoning capabilities from the ground up.

Although there is a rich literature on methods for allowing the variance in a univariate regression model to vary with predictors, time and other factors, relatively little has been done in the multivariate case. Our focus is on developing a class of nonparametric covariance regression models, which allow an unknown p x p covariance matrix to change flexibly with predictors. The proposed modeling framework induces a prior on a collection of covariance matrices indexed by predictors through priors for predictor-dependent loadings matrices in a factor model. In particular, the predictor-dependent loadings are characterized as a sparse combination of a collection of unknown dictionary functions (e.g, Gaussian process random functions). The induced covariance is then a regularized quadratic function of these dictionary elements. Our proposed framework leads to a highly-flexible, but computationally tractable formulation with simple conjugate posterior updates that can readily handle missing data. Theoretical properties are discussed and the methods are illustrated through simulations studies and an application to the Google Flu Trends data.

Active Learning Method (ALM) is a soft computing method used for modeling and control based on fuzzy logic. All operators defined for fuzzy sets must serve as either fuzzy S-norm or fuzzy T-norm. Despite being a powerful modeling method, ALM does not possess operators which serve as S-norms and T-norms which deprive it of a profound analytical expression/form. This paper introduces two new operators based on morphology which satisfy the following conditions: First, they serve as fuzzy S-norm and T-norm. Second, they satisfy Demorgans law, so they complement each other perfectly. These operators are investigated via three viewpoints: Mathematics, Geometry and fuzzy logic.

Although some information-theoretic measures of uncertainty or granularity have been proposed in rough set theory, these measures are only dependent on the underlying partition and the cardinality of the universe, independent of the lower and upper approximations. It seems somewhat unreasonable since the basic idea of rough set theory aims at describing vague concepts by the lower and upper approximations. In this paper, we thus define new information-theoretic entropy and co-entropy functions associated to the partition and the approximations to measure the uncertainty and granularity of an approximation space. After introducing the novel notions of entropy and co-entropy, we then examine their properties. In particular, we discuss the relationship of co-entropies between different universes. The theoretical development is accompanied by illustrative numerical examples.