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 Uncertainty


A Neural-Symbolic Cognitive Agent for Online Learning and Reasoning

AAAI Conferences

In real-world applications, the effective integration of learning and reasoning in a cognitive agent model is a difficult task. However, such integration may lead to a better understanding, use and construction of more realistic models. Unfortunately, existing models are either oversimplified or require much processing time, which is unsuitable for online learning and reasoning. Currently, controlled environments like training simulators do not effectively integrate learning and reasoning. In particular, higher-order concepts and cognitive abilities have many unknown temporal relations with the data, making it impossible to represent such relationships by hand. We introduce a novel cognitive agent model and architecture for online learning and reasoning that seeks to effectively represent, learn and reason in complex training environments. The agent architecture of the model combines neural learning with symbolic knowledge representation. It is capable of learning new hypotheses from observed data, and infer new beliefs based on these hypotheses. Furthermore, it deals with uncertainty and errors in the data using a Bayesian inference model. The validation of the model on real-time simulations and the results presented here indicate the promise of the approach when performing online learning and reasoning in real-world scenarios, with possible applications in a range of areas.


Explaining Genetic Knock-Out Effects Using Cost-Based Abduction

AAAI Conferences

Cost-Based Abduction (CBA) is an AI model for reasoning under uncertainty. In CBA, evidence to be explained is treated as a goal which is true and must be proven. Each proof of the goal is viewed as a feasible explanation and has a cost equal to the sum of the costs of all hypotheses that are assumed to complete the proof. The aim is to find the Least Cost Proof. This paper uses CBA to develop a novel method for modeling Genetic Regulatory Networks (GRN) and explaining genetic knock-out effects. Constructing GRN using multiple data sources is a fundamental problem in computational biology. We show that CBA is a powerful formalism for modeling GRN that can easily and effectively integrate multiple sources of biological data. In this paper, we use three different biological data sources: Protein-DNA, Protein–Protein and gene knock-out data. Using this data, we first create an un-annotated graph; CBA then annotates the graph by assigning a sign and a direction to each edge. Our biological results are promising; however, this manuscript focuses on the mathematical modeling of the application. The advantages of CBA and its relation to Bayesian inference are also presented.


Pattern Field Classification with Style Normalized Transformation

AAAI Conferences

Field classification is an extension of the traditional classification framework, by breaking the i.i.d. assumption. In field classification, patterns occur as groups (fields) of homogeneous styles. By utilizing style consistency, classifying groups of patterns is often more accurate than classifying single patterns. In this paper, we extend the Bayes decision theory, and develop the Field Bayesian Model (FBM) to deal with field classification. Specifically, we propose to learn a Style Normalized Transformation (SNT) for each field. Via the SNTs, the data of different fields are transformed to a uniform style space (i.i.d. space). The proposed model is a general and systematic framework, under which many probabilistic models can be easily extended for field classification. To transfer the model to unseen styles, we propose a transductive model called Transfer Bayesian Rule (TBR) based on self-training. We conducted extensive experiments on face, speech and a large-scale handwriting dataset, and got significant error rate reduction compared to the state-of-the-art methods.


Learning to Rank Under Multiple Annotators

AAAI Conferences

Learning to rank has received great attention in recent years as it plays a crucial role in information retrieval. The existing concept of learning to rank assumes that each training sample is associated with an instance and a reliable label. However, in practice, this assumption does not necessarily hold true. This study focuses on the learning to rank when each training instance is labeled by multiple annotators that may be unreliable. In such a scenario, no accurate labels can be obtained. This study proposes two learning approaches. One is to simply estimate the ground truth first and then to learn a ranking model with it. The second approach is a maximum likelihood learning approach which estimates the ground truth and learns the ranking model iteratively. The two approaches have been tested on both synthetic and real-world data. The results reveal that the maximum likelihood approach outperforms the first approach significantly and is comparable of achieving results with the learning model considering reliable labels. Further more, both the approaches have been applied for ranking the Web visual clutter.


Bayesian Policy Search with Policy Priors

AAAI Conferences

We consider the problem of learning to act in partially observable, continuous-state-and-action worlds where we have abstract prior knowledge about the structure of the optimal policy in the form of a distribution over policies. Using ideas from planning-as-inference reductions and Bayesian unsupervised learning, we cast Markov Chain Monte Carlo as a stochastic, hill-climbing policy search algorithm. Importantly, this algorithm's search bias is directly tied to the prior and its MCMC proposal kernels, which means we can draw on the full Bayesian toolbox to express the search bias, including nonparametric priors and structured, recursive processes like grammars over action sequences. Furthermore, we can reason about uncertainty in the search bias itself by constructing a hierarchical prior and reasoning about latent variables that determine the abstract structure of the policy. This yields an adaptive search algorithm---our algorithm learns to learn a structured policy efficiently. We show how inference over the latent variables in these policy priors enables intra- and intertask transfer of abstract knowledge. We demonstrate the flexibility of this approach by learning meta search biases, by constructing a nonparametric finite state controller to model memory, by discovering motor primitives using a simple grammar over primitive actions, and by combining all three.


A General MCMC Method for Bayesian Inference in Logic-Based Probabilistic Modeling

AAAI Conferences

We propose a general MCMC method for Bayesian inference in logic-based probabilistic modeling. It covers a broad class of generative models including Bayesian networks and PCFGs. The idea is to generalize an MCMC method for PCFGs to the one for a Turing-complete probabilistic modeling language PRISM in the context of statistical abduction where parse trees are replaced with explanations. We describe how to estimate the marginal probability of data from MCMC samples and how to perform Bayesian Viterbi inference using an example of Naive Bayes model augmented with a hidden variable.


Biclustering-Driven Ensemble of Bayesian Belief Network Classifiers for Underdetermined Problems

AAAI Conferences

In this paper, we present BENCH (BiclusteringdrivenENsemble of Classifiers), an algorithm toconstruct an ensemble of classifiers through concurrentfeature and data point selection guided byunsupervised knowledge obtained from biclustering.BENCH is designed for underdeterminedproblems. In our experiments, we use Bayesian BeliefNetwork (BBN) classifiers as base classifiers inthe ensemble; however, BENCH can be applied toother classification models as well. We show thatBENCH is able to increase prediction accuracy ofa single classifier and traditional ensemble of classifiersby up to 15% on three microarray datasetsusing various weighting schemes for combining individualpredictions in the ensemble.


Agent-Oriented Incremental Team and Activity Recognition

AAAI Conferences

Monitoring team activity is beneficial when human teams cooperate in the enactment of a joint plan. Monitoring allows teams to maintain awareness of each other's progress within the plan and it enables anticipation of information needs. Humans find this difficult, particularly in time-stressed and uncertain environments. In this paper we introduce a probabilistic model, based on Conditional Random Fields, to automatically recognise the composition of teams and the team activities in relation to a plan. The team composition and activities are recognised incrementally by interpreting a stream of spatio-temporal observations.


Probit Classifiers with a Generalized Gaussian Scale Mixture Prior

AAAI Conferences

Most of the existing probit classifiers are based on sparsity-oriented modeling. However, we show that sparsity is not always desirable in practice, and only an appropriate degree of sparsity is profitable. In this work, we propose a flexible probabilistic model using a generalized Gaussian scale mixture prior that can promote an appropriate degree of sparsity for its model parameters, and yield either sparse or non-sparse estimates according to the intrinsic sparsity of features in a dataset. Model learning is carried out by an efficient modified maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate. We also show relationships of the proposed model to existing probit classifiers as well as iteratively re-weighted l1 and l2 minimizations. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed method has better or comparable performances in feature selection for linear classifiers as well as in kernel-based classification.


Multi-Label Classification Using Conditional Dependency Networks

AAAI Conferences

In this paper, we tackle the challenges of multi-label classification by developing a general conditional dependency network model. The proposed model is a cyclic directed graphical model, which provides an intuitive representation for the dependencies among multiple label variables, and a well integrated framework for efficient model training using binary classifiers and label predictions using Gibbs sampling inference. Our experiments show the proposed conditional model can effectively exploit the label dependency to improve multi-label classification performance.