Uncertainty
Context Sensitive Topic Models for Author Influence in Document Networks
Kataria, Saurabh (The Pennsylvania State University) | Mitra, Prasenjit (The Pennsylvania State University) | Caragea, Cornelia (The Pennsylvania State University) | Giles, C. Lee (The Pennsylvania State University)
In a document network such as a citation network of scientific documents, web-logs etc., the content produced by authors exhibit their interest in certain topics. In addition some authors influence other authors' interests. In this work, we propose to model the influence of cited authors along with the interests of citing authors. Morover , we hypothesize that citations present in documents, the context surrounding the citation mention provides extra topical information about the cited authors. However, associating terms in the context to the cited authors remains an open problem. We propose novel document generation schemes that incorporate the context while simultaneously modeling the interests of citing authors and influence of the cited authors. Our experiments show significant improvements over baseline models for various evaluation criteria such as link prediction between document and cited author, and quantitatively explaining unseen text.
Bayesian Chain Classifiers for Multidimensional Classification
Zaragoza, Julio Cesar (INAOE) | Sucar, Enrique (INAOE) | Morales, Eduardo (INAOE) | Bielza, Concha (Universidad Politécnica Madrid) | Larrañaga, Pedro (Universidad Politécnica Madrid)
In multidimensional classification the goal is to assign an instance to a set of different classes. This task is normally addressed either by defining a compound class variable with all the possible combinations of classes (label power-set methods, LPMs) or by building independent classifiers for each class (binary-relevance methods, BRMs). However, LPMs do not scale well and BRMs ignore the dependency relations between classes. We introduce a method for chaining binary Bayesian classifiers that combines the strengths of classifier chains and Bayesian networks for multidimensional classification. The method consists of two phases. In the first phase, a Bayesian network (BN) that represents the dependency relations between the class variables is learned from data. In the second phase, several chain classifiers are built, such that the order of the class variables in the chain is consistent with the class BN. At the end we combine the results of the different generated orders. Our method considers the dependencies between class variables and takes advantage of the conditional independence relations to build simplified models. We perform experiments with a chain of naive Bayes classifiers on different benchmark multidimensional datasets and show that our approach outperforms other state-of-the-art methods.
Resolute Choice in Sequential Decision Problems with Multiple Priors
Fargier, Hélène (CNRS) | Jeantet, Gildas (UPMC) | Spanjaard, Olivier (UPMC)
This paper is devoted to sequential decision making under uncertainty, in the multi-prior framework of Gilboa and Schmeidler [1989]. In this setting, a set of probability measures (priors) is defined instead of a single one, and the decision maker selects a strategy that maximizes the minimum possible value of expected utility over this set of priors. We are interested here in the resolute choice approach, where one initially commits to a complete strategy and never deviates from it later. Given a decision tree representation with multiple priors, we study the problem of determining an optimal strategy from the root according to min expected utility. We prove the intractability of evaluating a strategy in the general case. We then identify different properties of a decision tree that enable to design dedicated resolution procedures. Finally, experimental results are presented that evaluate these procedures.
Motor Simulation via Coupled Internal Models Using Sequential Monte Carlo
Dindo, Haris (University of Palermo) | Zambuto, Daniele (University of Palermo) | Pezzulo, Giovanni (Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche - CNR)
We describe a generative Bayesian model for action understanding in which inverse-forward internal model pairs are considered "hypotheses" of plausible action goals that are explored in parallel via an approximate inference mechanism based on sequential Monte Carlo methods. The reenactment of internal model pairs can be considered a form of motor simulation, which supports both perceptual prediction and action understanding at the goal level. However, this procedure is generally considered to be computationally inefficient. We present a model that dynamically reallocates computational resources to more accurate internal models depending on both the available prior information and the prediction error of the inverse-forward models, and which leads to successful action recognition. We present experimental results that test the robustness and efficiency of our model in real-world scenarios.
Inference with Multinomial Data: Why to Weaken the Prior Strength
Campos, Cassio Polpo de (Dalle Molle Institute for Artificial Intelligence) | Benavoli, Alessio (Dalle Molle Institute for Artificial Intelligence)
This paper considers inference from multinomial data and addresses the problem of choosing the strength of the Dirichlet prior under a mean-squared error criterion. We compare the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) and the most commonly used Bayesian estimators obtained by assuming a prior Dirichlet distribution with non-informative prior parameters, that is, the parameters of the Dirichlet are equal and altogether sum up to the so called strength of the prior. Under this criterion, MLE becomes more preferable than the Bayesian estimators at the increase of the number of categories k of the multinomial, because non-informative Bayesian estimators induce a region where they are dominant that quickly shrinks with the increase of k. This can be avoided if the strength of the prior is not kept constant but decreased with the number of categories. We argue that the strength should decrease at least k times faster than usual estimators do.
Lifted Relational Kalman Filtering
Choi, Jaesik (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) | Guzman-Rivera, Abner (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) | Amir, Eyal (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)
Kalman Filtering is a computational tool with widespread applications in robotics, financial and weather forecasting, environmental engineering and defense. Given observation and state transition models, the Kalman Filter (KF) recursively estimates the state variables of a dynamic system. However, the KF requires a cubic time matrix inversion operation at every timestep which prevents its application in domains with large numbers of state variables. We propose Relational Gaussian Models to represent and model dynamic systems with large numbers of variables efficiently. Furthermore, we devise an exact lifted Kalman Filtering algorithm which takes only linear time in the number of random variables at every timestep. We prove that our algorithm takes linear time in the number of state variables even when individual observations apply to each variable. To our knowledge, this is the first lifted (linear time) algorithm for filtering with continuous dynamic relational models.
User-Dependent Aspect Model for Collaborative Activity Recognition
Zheng, Vincent W. (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology) | Yang, Qiang (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)
Activity recognition aims to discover one or more users’ actions and goals based on sensor readings. In the real world, a single user’s data are often insufficient for training an activity recognition model due to the data sparsity problem. This is especially true when we are interested in obtaining a personalized model. In this paper, we study how to collaboratively use different users’ sensor data to train a model that can provide personalized activity recognition for each user. We propose a user-dependent aspect model for this collaborative activity recognition task. Our model introduces user aspect variables to capture the user grouping information, so that a target user can also benefit from her similar users in the same group to train the recognition model. In this way, we can greatly reduce the need for much valuable and expensive labeled data required in training the recognition model for each user. Our model is also capable of incorporating time information and handling new user in activity recognition. We evaluate our model on a real-world WiFi data set obtained from an indoor environment, and show that the proposed model can outperform several state-of-art baseline algorithms.
Affect Sensing in Metaphorical Phenomena and Dramatic Interaction Context
Zhang, Li (Teesside University)
Metaphorical interpretation and affect detection using context profiles from open-ended text input are challenging in affective language processing field. In this paper, we explore recognition of a few typical affective metaphorical phenomena and context-based affect sensing using the modeling of speakers’ improvisational mood and other participants’ emotional influence to the speaking character under the improvisation of loose scenarios. The overall updated affect detection module is embedded in an AI agent. The new developments have enabled the AI agent to perform generally better in affect sensing tasks. The work emphasizes the conference themes on affective dialogue processing, human-agent interaction and intelligent user interfaces.
Unsupervised Lexicon Acquisition for HPSG-Based Relation Extraction
Rozenfeld, Benjamin (Digital Trowel) | Feldman, Ronen (Hebrew University of Jerusalem)
The paper describes a method of relation extraction, which is based on parsing the input text using a combination of a generic HPSG-based grammar and a highly focused domain- and relation-specific lexicon. We also show a method of unsupervised acquisition of such a lexicon from a large unlabeled corpus. Together, the methods introduce a novel approach to the “Open IE” task, which is superior in accuracy and in quality of relation identification to the existing approaches.
Improving Topic Evaluation Using Conceptual Knowledge
Musat, Claudiu Cristian ("Politehnica") | Velcin, Julien (University of Bucharest) | Trausan-Matu, Stefan (Université) | Rizoiu, Marian-Andrei (Lumière)
The growing number of statistical topic models led to the need to better evaluate their output. Traditional evaluation means estimate the model’s fitness to unseen data. It has recently been proven than the output of human judgment can greatly differ from these measures. Thus the need for methods that better emulate human judgment is stringent. In this paper we present a system that computes the usefulness of individual topics from a given model on the basis of information drawn from a given ontology, in this case WordNet. The notion of utility is regarded as the ability to attribute a concept to each topic and separate words related to the topic from the unrelated ones based on that concept. In multiple experiments we prove the correlation between the automatic evaluation method and the answers received from human evaluators, for various corpora and difficulty levels. By changing the evaluation focus from a statistical one to a conceptual one we were able to detect which topics are conceptually meaningful and rank them accordingly.