Variational methods have been previously explored as a tractable approximation to Bayesian inference for neural networks. However the approaches proposed so far have only been applicable to a few simple network architectures. This paper introduces an easy-to-implement stochastic variational method (or equivalently, minimum description length loss function) that can be applied to most neural networks. Along the way it revisits several common regularisers from a variational perspective. It also provides a simple pruning heuristic that can both drastically reduce the number of network weights and lead to improved generalisation. Experimental results are provided for a hierarchical multidimensional recurrent neural network applied to the TIMIT speech corpus.

Synaptic plasticity underlies learning and is thus central for development, memory, and recovery from injury. However, it is often difficult to detect changes in synaptic strength in vivo, since intracellular recordings are experimentally challenging. Here we present two methods aimed at inferring changes in the coupling between pairs of neurons from extracellularly recorded spike trains. First, using a generalized bilinear model with Poisson output we estimate time-varying coupling assuming that all changes are spike-timing-dependent. This approach allows model-based estimation of STDP modification functions from pairs of spike trains. Then, using recursive point-process adaptive filtering methods we estimate more general variation in coupling strength over time. Using simulations of neurons undergoing spike-timing dependent modification, we show that the true modification function can be recovered. Using multi-electrode data from motor cortex we then illustrate the use of this technique on in vivo data.

We introduce the Piecewise-Constant Conditional Intensity Model, a model for learning temporal dependencies in event streams. We describe a closed-form Bayesian approach to learning these models, and describe an importance sampling algorithm for forecasting future events using these models, using a proposal distribution based on Poisson superposition. We then use synthetic data, supercomputer event logs, and web search query logs to illustrate that our learning algorithm can efficiently learn nonlinear temporal dependencies, and that our importance sampling algorithm can effectively forecast future events.

Approximate inference is an important technique for dealing with large, intractable graphical models based on the exponential family of distributions. We extend the idea of approximate inference to the t-exponential family by defining a new t-divergence. This divergence measure is obtained via convex duality between the log-partition function of the t-exponential family and a new t-entropy. We illustrate our approach on the Bayes Point Machine with a Student's t-prior.

Recently, Mahoney and Orecchia demonstrated that popular diffusion-based procedures to compute a quick approximation to the first nontrivial eigenvector of a data graph Laplacian exactly solve certain regularized Semi-Definite Programs (SDPs). In this paper, we extend that result by providing a statistical interpretation of their approximation procedure. Our interpretation will be analogous to the manner in which l2-regularized or l1-regularized l2 regression (often called Ridge regression and Lasso regression, respectively) can be interpreted in terms of a Gaussian prior or a Laplace prior, respectively, on the coefficient vector of the regression problem. Our framework will imply that the solutions to the Mahoney-Orecchia regularized SDP can be interpreted as regularized estimates of the pseudoinverse of the graph Laplacian. Conversely, it will imply that the solution to this regularized estimation problem can be computed very quickly by running, e.g., the fast diffusion-based PageRank procedure for computing an approximation to the first nontrivial eigenvector of the graph Laplacian. Empirical results are also provided to illustrate the manner in which approximate eigenvector computation implicitly performs statistical regularization, relative to running the corresponding exact algorithm.

We consider the computational complexity of probabilistic inference in Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). First, we study the problem of finding the maximum a posteriori (MAP) assignment of topics to words, where the document's topic distribution is integrated out. We show that, when the effective number of topics per document is small, exact inference takes polynomial time. In contrast, we show that, when a document has a large number of topics, finding the MAP assignment of topics to words in LDA is NP-hard. Next, we consider the problem of finding the MAP topic distribution for a document, where the topic-word assignments are integrated out. We show that this problem is also NP-hard. Finally, we briefly discuss the problem of sampling from the posterior, showing that this is NP-hard in one restricted setting, but leaving open the general question.

We consider the problem of learning rules from natural language text sources. These sources, such as news articles and web texts, are created by a writer to communicate information to a reader, where the writer and reader share substantial domain knowledge. Consequently, the texts tend to be concise and mention the minimum information necessary for the reader to draw the correct conclusions. We study the problem of learning domain knowledge from such concise texts, which is an instance of the general problem of learning in the presence of missing data. However, unlike standard approaches to missing data, in this setting we know that facts are more likely to be missing from the text in cases where the reader can infer them from the facts that are mentioned combined with the domain knowledge. Hence, we can explicitly model this "missingness" process and invert it via probabilistic inference to learn the underlying domain knowledge. This paper introduces a mention model that models the probability of facts being mentioned in the text based on what other facts have already been mentioned and domain knowledge in the form of Horn clause rules. Learning must simultaneously search the space of rules and learn the parameters of the mention model. We accomplish this via an application of Expectation Maximization within a Markov Logic framework. An experimental evaluation on synthetic and natural text data shows that the method can learn accurate rules and apply them to new texts to make correct inferences. Experiments also show that the method out-performs the standard EM approach that assumes mentions are missing at random.

State-of-the-art statistical methods in neuroscience have enabled us to fit mathematical models to experimental data and subsequently to infer the dynamics of hidden parameters underlying the observable phenomena. Here, we develop a Bayesian method for inferring the time-varying mean and variance of the synaptic input, along with the dynamics of each ion channel from a single voltage trace of a neuron. An estimation problem may be formulated on the basis of the state-space model with prior distributions that penalize large fluctuations in these parameters. After optimizing the hyperparameters by maximizing the marginal likelihood, the state-space model provides the time-varying parameters of the input signals and the ion channel states. The proposed method is tested not only on the simulated data from the Hodgkin-Huxley type models but also on experimental data obtained from a cortical slice in vitro.

Extensive evidence suggests that items are not encoded independently in visual short-term memory (VSTM). However, previous research has not quantitatively considered how the encoding of an item influences the encoding of other items. Here, we model the dependencies among VSTM representations using a multivariate Gaussian distribution with a stimulus-dependent mean and covariance matrix. We report the results of an experiment designed to determine the specific form of the stimulus-dependence of the mean and the covariance matrix. We find that the magnitude of the covariance between the representations of two items is a monotonically decreasing function of the difference between the items' feature values, similar to a Gaussian process with a distance-dependent, stationary kernel function. We further show that this type of covariance function can be explained as a natural consequence of encoding multiple stimuli in a population of neurons with correlated responses.

Renewal processes are generalizations of the Poisson process on the real line, whose intervals are drawn i.i.d. from some distribution. Modulated renewal processes allow these distributions to vary with time, allowing the introduction nonstationarity. In this work, we take a nonparametric Bayesian approach, modeling this nonstationarity with a Gaussian process. Our approach is based on the idea of uniformization, allowing us to draw exact samples from an otherwise intractable distribution. We develop a novel and efficient MCMC sampler for posterior inference. In our experiments, we test these on a number of synthetic and real datasets.