Standard maximum likelihood estimation cannot be applied to discrete energy-based models in the general case because the computation of exact model probabilities is intractable. Recent research has seen the proposal of several new estimators designed specifically to overcome this intractability, but virtually nothing is known about their theoretical properties. In this paper, we present a generalized estimator that unifies many of the classical and recently proposed estimators. We use results from the standard asymptotic theory for M-estimators to derive a generic expression for the asymptotic covariance matrix of our generalized estimator. We apply these results to study the relative statistical efficiency of classical pseudolikelihood and the recently-proposed ratio matching estimator.

We show that the Bregman divergence provides a rich framework to estimate unnormalized statistical models for continuous or discrete random variables, that is, models which do not integrate or sum to one, respectively. We prove that recent estimation methods such as noise-contrastive estimation, ratio matching, and score matching belong to the proposed framework, and explain their interconnection based on supervised learning. Further, we discuss the role of boosting in unsupervised learning.

Given a set of experiments in which varying subsets of observed variables are subject to intervention, we consider the problem of identifiability of causal models exhibiting latent confounding. While identifiability is trivial when each experiment intervenes on a large number of variables, the situation is more complicated when only one or a few variables are subject to intervention per experiment. For linear causal models with latent variables Hyttinen et al. (2010) gave precise conditions for when such data are sufficient to identify the full model. While their result cannot be extended to discrete-valued variables with arbitrary cause-effect relationships, we show that a similar result can be obtained for the class of causal models whose conditional probability distributions are restricted to a `noisy-OR' parameterization. We further show that identification is preserved under an extension of the model that allows for negative influences, and present learning algorithms that we test for accuracy, scalability and robustness.

We present a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method for estimating posterior probabilities of structural features in Bayesian networks. The method draws samples from the posterior distribution of partial orders on the nodes; for each sampled partial order, the conditional probabilities of interest are computed exactly. We give both analytical and empirical results that suggest the superiority of the new method compared to previous methods, which sample either directed acyclic graphs or linear orders on the nodes.

We study learning in a noisy bisection model: specifically, Bayesian algorithms to learn a target value V given access only to noisy realizations of whether V is less than or greater than a threshold theta. At step t = 0, 1, 2, ..., the learner sets threshold theta t and observes a noisy realization of sign(V - theta t). After T steps, the goal is to output an estimate V^ which is within an eta-tolerance of V . This problem has been studied, predominantly in environments with a fixed error probability q < 1/2 for the noisy realization of sign(V - theta t). In practice, it is often the case that q can approach 1/2, especially as theta -> V, and there is little known when this happens. We give a pseudo-Bayesian algorithm which provably converges to V. When the true prior matches our algorithm's Gaussian prior, we show near-optimal expected performance. Our methods extend to the general multiple-threshold setting where the observation noisily indicates which of k >= 2 regions V belongs to.

Bayes-optimal behavior, while well-defined, is often difficult to achieve. Recent advances in the use of Monte-Carlo tree search (MCTS) have shown that it is possible to act near-optimally in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with very large or infinite state spaces. Bayes-optimal behavior in an unknown MDP is equivalent to optimal behavior in the known belief-space MDP, although the size of this belief-space MDP grows exponentially with the amount of history retained, and is potentially infinite. We show how an agent can use one particular MCTS algorithm, Forward Search Sparse Sampling (FSSS), in an efficient way to act nearly Bayes-optimally for all but a polynomial number of steps, assuming that FSSS can be used to act efficiently in any possible underlying MDP.

Markov control algorithms that perform smooth, non-greedy updates of the policy have been shown to be very general and versatile, with policy gradient and Expectation Maximisation algorithms being particularly popular. For these algorithms, marginal inference of the reward weighted trajectory distribution is required to perform policy updates. We discuss a new exact inference algorithm for these marginals in the finite horizon case that is more efficient than the standard approach based on classical forward-backward recursions. We also provide a principled extension to infinite horizon Markov Decision Problems that explicitly accounts for an infinite horizon. This extension provides a novel algorithm for both policy gradients and Expectation Maximisation in infinite horizon problems.

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are widely used in modeling decision making problems in stochastic environments. However, precise specification of the reward functions in MDPs is often very difficult. Recent approaches have focused on computing an optimal policy based on the minimax regret criterion for obtaining a robust policy under uncertainty in the reward function. One of the core tasks in computing the minimax regret policy is to obtain the set of all policies that can be optimal for some candidate reward function. In this paper, we propose an efficient algorithm that exploits the geometric properties of the reward function associated with the policies. We also present an approximate version of the method for further speed up. We experimentally demonstrate that our algorithm improves the performance by orders of magnitude.

The First-Order Variable Elimination (FOVE) algorithm allows exact inference to be applied directly to probabilistic relational models, and has proven to be vastly superior to the application of standard inference methods on a grounded propositional model. Still, FOVE operators can be applied under restricted conditions, often forcing one to resort to propositional inference. This paper aims to extend the applicability of FOVE by providing two new model conversion operators: the first and the primary is joint formula conversion and the second is just-different counting conversion. These new operations allow efficient inference methods to be applied directly on relational models, where no existing efficient method could be applied hitherto. In addition, aided by these capabilities, we show how to adapt FOVE to provide exact solutions to Maximum Expected Utility (MEU) queries over relational models for decision under uncertainty. Experimental evaluations show our algorithms to provide significant speedup over the alternatives.

In this paper, we develop a qualitative theory of influence diagrams that can be used to model and solve sequential decision making tasks when only qualitative (or imprecise) information is available. Our approach is based on an order-of-magnitude approximation of both probabilities and utilities and allows for specifying partially ordered preferences via sets of utility values. We also propose a dedicated variable elimination algorithm that can be applied for solving order-of-magnitude influence diagrams.