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 Uncertainty


8-Valent Fuzzy Logic for Iris Recognition and Biometry

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper shows that maintaining logical consistency of an iris recognition system is a matter of finding a suitable partitioning of the input space in enrollable and unenrollable pairs by negotiating the user comfort and the safety of the biometric system. In other words, consistent enrollment is mandatory in order to preserve system consistency. A fuzzy 3-valued disambiguated model of iris recognition is proposed and analyzed in terms of completeness, consistency, user comfort and biometric safety. It is also shown here that the fuzzy 3-valued model of iris recognition is hosted by an 8-valued Boolean algebra of modulo 8 integers that represents the computational formalization in which a biometric system (a software agent) can achieve the artificial understanding of iris recognition in a logically consistent manner.


Classifying Scientific Publications Using Abstract Features

AAAI Conferences

With the exponential increase in the number of documents available online, e.g., news articles, weblogs, scientific documents, effective and efficient classification methods are required in order to deliver the appropriate information to specific users or groups. The performance of document classifiers critically depends, among other things, on the choice of the feature representation. The commonly used "bag of words" representation can result in a large number of features. Feature abstraction helps reduce a classifier input size by learning an abstraction hierarchy over the set of words. A cut through the hierarchy specifies a compressed model, where the nodes on the cut represent abstract features. In this paper, we compare feature abstraction with two other methods for dimensionality reduction, i.e., feature selection and Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). Experimental results on two data sets of scientific publications show that classifiers trained using abstract features significantly outperform those trained using features that have the highest average mutual information with the class, and those trained using the topic distribution and topic words output by LDA. Furthermore, we propose an approach to automatic identification of a cut in order to trade off the complexity of classifiers against their performance. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach.


Bridging Dichotomies in Cognitive Architectures for Virtual Humans

AAAI Conferences

Desiderata for cognitive architectures that are to support the extent of human-level intelligence required in virtual humans imply the need to bridge a range of dichotomies faced by such architectures. The focus here is first on two general approaches to building such bridges — addition and reduction — and then on a pair of general tools – graphical models and piecewise continuous functions — that exploit the second approach towards developing such an architecture. Evaluation is in terms of the architecture’s demonstrated ability and future potential for bridging the dichotomies.


Convergence Rates for Mixture-of-Experts

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In mixtures-of-experts (ME) model, where a number of submodels (experts) are combined, there have been two longstanding problems: (i) how many experts should be chosen, given the size of the training data? (ii) given the total number of parameters, is it better to use a few very complex experts, or is it better to combine many simple experts? In this paper, we try to provide some insights to these problems through a theoretic study on a ME structure where $m$ experts are mixed, with each expert being related to a polynomial regression model of order $k$. We study the convergence rate of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), in terms of how fast the Kullback-Leibler divergence of the estimated density converges to the true density, when the sample size $n$ increases. The convergence rate is found to be dependent on both $m$ and $k$, and certain choices of $m$ and $k$ are found to produce optimal convergence rates. Therefore, these results shed light on the two aforementioned important problems: on how to choose $m$, and on how $m$ and $k$ should be compromised, for achieving good convergence rates.


Applying Fuzzy ID3 Decision Tree for Software Effort Estimation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Web Effort Estimation is a process of predicting the efforts and cost in terms of money, schedule and staff for any software project system. Many estimation models have been proposed over the last three decades and it is believed that it is a must for the purpose of: Budgeting, risk analysis, project planning and control, and project improvement investment analysis. In this paper, we investigate the use of Fuzzy ID3 decision tree for software cost estimation; it is designed by integrating the principles of ID3 decision tree and the fuzzy set-theoretic concepts, enabling the model to handle uncertain and imprecise data when describing the software projects, which can improve greatly the accuracy of obtained estimates. MMRE and Pred are used as measures of prediction accuracy for this study. A series of experiments is reported using two different software projects datasets namely, Tukutuku and COCOMO'81 datasets. The results are compared with those produced by the crisp version of the ID3 decision tree.


Reasoning with Very Expressive Fuzzy Description Logics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

It is widely recognized today that the management of imprecision and vagueness will yield more intelligent and realistic knowledge-based applications. Description Logics (DLs) are a family of knowledge representation languages that have gained considerable attention the last decade, mainly due to their decidability and the existence of empirically high performance of reasoning algorithms. In this paper, we extend the well known fuzzy ALC DL to the fuzzy SHIN DL, which extends the fuzzy ALC DL with transitive role axioms (S), inverse roles (I), role hierarchies (H) and number restrictions (N). We illustrate why transitive role axioms are difficult to handle in the presence of fuzzy interpretations and how to handle them properly. Then we extend these results by adding role hierarchies and finally number restrictions. The main contributions of the paper are the decidability proof of the fuzzy DL languages fuzzy-SI and fuzzy-SHIN, as well as decision procedures for the knowledge base satisfiability problem of the fuzzy-SI and fuzzy-SHIN.


First Order Decision Diagrams for Relational MDPs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Markov decision processes capture sequential decision making under uncertainty, where an agent must choose actions so as to optimize long term reward. The paper studies efficient reasoning mechanisms for Relational Markov Decision Processes (RMDP) where world states have an internal relational structure that can be naturally described in terms of objects and relations among them. Two contributions are presented. First, the paper develops First Order Decision Diagrams (FODD), a new compact representation for functions over relational structures, together with a set of operators to combine FODDs, and novel reduction techniques to keep the representation small. Second, the paper shows how FODDs can be used to develop solutions for RMDPs, where reasoning is performed at the abstract level and the resulting optimal policy is independent of domain size (number of objects) or instantiation. In particular, a variant of the value iteration algorithm is developed by using special operations over FODDs, and the algorithm is shown to converge to the optimal policy.


Efficient Marginal Likelihood Computation for Gaussian Process Regression

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In a Bayesian learning setting, the posterior distribution of a predictive model arises from a trade-off between its prior distribution and the conditional likelihood of observed data. Such distribution functions usually rely on additional hyperparameters which need to be tuned in order to achieve optimum predictive performance; this operation can be efficiently performed in an Empirical Bayes fashion by maximizing the posterior marginal likelihood of the observed data. Since the score function of this optimization problem is in general characterized by the presence of local optima, it is necessary to resort to global optimization strategies, which require a large number of function evaluations. Given that the evaluation is usually computationally intensive and badly scaled with respect to the dataset size, the maximum number of observations that can be treated simultaneously is quite limited. In this paper, we consider the case of hyperparameter tuning in Gaussian process regression. A straightforward implementation of the posterior log-likelihood for this model requires O(N^3) operations for every iteration of the optimization procedure, where N is the number of examples in the input dataset. We derive a novel set of identities that allow, after an initial overhead of O(N^3), the evaluation of the score function, as well as the Jacobian and Hessian matrices, in O(N) operations. We prove how the proposed identities, that follow from the eigendecomposition of the kernel matrix, yield a reduction of several orders of magnitude in the computation time for the hyperparameter optimization problem. Notably, the proposed solution provides computational advantages even with respect to state of the art approximations that rely on sparse kernel matrices.


Ordinal Risk-Group Classification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Most classification methods provide either a prediction of class membership or an assessment of class membership probability. In the case of two-group classification the predicted probability can be described as "risk" of belonging to a "special" class . When the required output is a set of ordinal-risk groups, a discretization of the continuous risk prediction is achieved by two common methods: by constructing a set of models that describe the conditional risk function at specific points (quantile regression) or by dividing the output of an "optimal" classification model into adjacent intervals that correspond to the desired risk groups. By defining a new error measure for the distribution of risk onto intervals we are able to identify lower bounds on the accuracy of these methods, showing sub-optimality both in their distribution of risk and in the efficiency of their resulting partition into intervals. By adding a new form of constraint to the existing maximum likelihood optimization framework and by introducing a penalty function to avoid degenerate solutions, we show how existing methods can be augmented to solve the ordinal risk-group classification problem. We implement our method for logistic regression (LR) and show a numeric example.


Inducing Probabilistic Programs by Bayesian Program Merging

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This report outlines an approach to learning generative models from data. We express models as probabilistic programs, which allows us to capture abstract patterns within the examples. By choosing our language for programs to be an extension of the algebraic data type of the examples, we can begin with a program that generates all and only the examples. We then introduce greater abstraction, and hence generalization, incrementally to the extent that it improves the posterior probability of the examples given the program. Motivated by previous approaches to model merging and program induction, we search for such explanatory abstractions using program transformations. We consider two types of transformation: Abstraction merges common subexpressions within a program into new functions (a form of anti-unification). Deargumentation simplifies functions by reducing the number of arguments. We demonstrate that this approach finds key patterns in the domain of nested lists, including parameterized sub-functions and stochastic recursion.