Temporal networks are ubiquitous and evolve over time by the addition, deletion, and changing of links, nodes, and attributes. Although many relational datasets contain temporal information, the majority of existing techniques in relational learning focus on static snapshots and ignore the temporal dynamics. We propose a framework for discovering temporal representations of relational data to increase the accuracy of statistical relational learning algorithms. The temporal relational representations serve as a basis for classification, ensembles, and pattern mining in evolving domains. The framework includes (1) selecting the time-varying relational components (links, attributes, nodes), (2) selecting the temporal granularity, (3) predicting the temporal influence of each time-varying relational component, and (4) choosing the weighted relational classifier. Additionally, we propose temporal ensemble methods that exploit the temporal-dimension of relational data. These ensembles outperform traditional and more sophisticated relational ensembles while avoiding the issue of learning the most optimal representation. Finally, the space of temporal-relational models are evaluated using a sample of classifiers. In all cases, the proposed temporal-relational classifiers outperform competing models that ignore the temporal information. The results demonstrate the capability and necessity of the temporal-relational representations for classification, ensembles, and for mining temporal datasets.

We consider how an agent should update her beliefs when her beliefs are represented by a set P of probability distributions, given that the agent makes decisions using the minimax criterion, perhaps the best-studied and most commonly-used criterion in the literature. We adopt a game-theoretic framework, where the agent plays against a bookie, who chooses some distribution from P. We consider two reasonable games that differ in what the bookie knows when he makes his choice. Anomalies that have been observed before, like time inconsistency, can be understood as arising because different games are being played, against bookies with different information. We characterize the important special cases in which the optimal decision rules according to the minimax criterion amount to either conditioning or simply ignoring the information. Finally, we consider the relationship between updating and calibration when uncertainty is described by sets of probabilities. Our results emphasize the key role of the rectangularity condition of Epstein and Schneider.

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to the problem of jointly modeling multiple related time series. Our approach is based on the discovery of a set of latent, shared dynamical behaviors. Using a beta process prior, the size of the set and the sharing pattern are both inferred from data. We develop efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo methods based on the Indian buffet process representation of the predictive distribution of the beta process, without relying on a truncated model. In particular, our approach uses the sum-product algorithm to efficiently compute Metropolis-Hastings acceptance probabilities, and explores new dynamical behaviors via birth and death proposals. We examine the benefits of our proposed feature-based model on several synthetic datasets, and also demonstrate promising results on unsupervised segmentation of visual motion capture data.

Recent research has shown that performance in signal processing tasks can often be significantly improved by using signal models based on sparse representations, where a signal is approximated using a small number of elements from a fixed dictionary. Unfortunately, inference in this model involves solving non-smooth optimization problems that are computationally expensive. While significant efforts have focused on developing digital algorithms specifically for this problem, these algorithms are inappropriate for many applications because of the time and power requirements necessary to solve large optimization problems. Based on recent work in computational neuroscience, we explore the potential advantages of continuous time dynamical systems for solving sparse approximation problems if they were implemented in analog VLSI. Specifically, in the simulated task of recovering synthetic and MRI data acquired via compressive sensing techniques, we show that these systems can potentially perform recovery at time scales of 10-20{\mu}s, supporting datarates of 50-100 kHz (orders of magnitude faster that digital algorithms). Furthermore, we show analytically that a wide range of sparse approximation problems can be solved in the same basic architecture, including approximate $\ell^p$ norms, modified $\ell^1$ norms, re-weighted $\ell^1$ and $\ell^2$, the block $\ell^1$ norm and classic Tikhonov regularization.

We generalise the problem of inverse reinforcement learning to multiple tasks, from multiple demonstrations. Each one may represent one expert trying to solve a different task, or as different experts trying to solve the same task. Our main contribution is to formalise the problem as statistical preference elicitation, via a number of structured priors, whose form captures our biases about the relatedness of different tasks or expert policies. In doing so, we introduce a prior on policy optimality, which is more natural to specify. We show that our framework allows us not only to learn to efficiently from multiple experts but to also effectively differentiate between the goals of each. Possible applications include analysing the intrinsic motivations of subjects in behavioural experiments and learning from multiple teachers.

The task of keyhole (unobtrusive) plan recognition is central to adaptive game AI. "Tech trees" or "build trees" are the core of real-time strategy (RTS) game strategic (long term) planning. This paper presents a generic and simple Bayesian model for RTS build tree prediction from noisy observations, which parameters are learned from replays (game logs). This unsupervised machine learning approach involves minimal work for the game developers as it leverage players' data (com- mon in RTS). We applied it to StarCraft1 and showed that it yields high quality and robust predictions, that can feed an adaptive AI.

When faced with the problem of learning a model of a high-dimensional environment, a common approach is to limit the model to make only a restricted set of predictions, thereby simplifying the learning problem. These partial models may be directly useful for making decisions or may be combined together to form a more complete, structured model. However, in partially observable (non-Markov) environments, standard model-learning methods learn generative models, i.e. models that provide a probability distribution over all possible futures (such as POMDPs). It is not straightforward to restrict such models to make only certain predictions, and doing so does not always simplify the learning problem. In this paper we present prediction profile models: non-generative partial models for partially observable systems that make only a given set of predictions, and are therefore far simpler than generative models in some cases. We formalize the problem of learning a prediction profile model as a transformation of the original model-learning problem, and show empirically that one can learn prediction profile models that make a small set of important predictions even in systems that are too complex for standard generative models.

In the Bayesian approach to sequential decision making, exact calculation of the (subjective) utility is intractable. This extends to most special cases of interest, such as reinforcement learning problems. While utility bounds are known to exist for this problem, so far none of them were particularly tight. In this paper, we show how to efficiently calculate a lower bound, which corresponds to the utility of a near-optimal memoryless policy for the decision problem, which is generally different from both the Bayes-optimal policy and the policy which is optimal for the expected MDP under the current belief. We then show how these can be applied to obtain robust exploration policies in a Bayesian reinforcement learning setting.

Machine learning approaches to multi-label document classification have to date largely relied on discriminative modeling techniques such as support vector machines. A drawback of these approaches is that performance rapidly drops off as the total number of labels and the number of labels per document increase. This problem is amplified when the label frequencies exhibit the type of highly skewed distributions that are often observed in real-world datasets. In this paper we investigate a class of generative statistical topic models for multi-label documents that associate individual word tokens with different labels. We investigate the advantages of this approach relative to discriminative models, particularly with respect to classification problems involving large numbers of relatively rare labels. We compare the performance of generative and discriminative approaches on document labeling tasks ranging from datasets with several thousand labels to datasets with tens of labels. The experimental results indicate that probabilistic generative models can achieve competitive multi-label classification performance compared to discriminative methods, and have advantages for datasets with many labels and skewed label frequencies.

A major inference task in Bayesian networks is explaining why some variables are observed in their particular states using a set of target variables. Existing methods for solving this problem often generate explanations that are either too simple (underspecified) or too complex (overspecified). In this paper, we introduce a method called Most Relevant Explanation (MRE) which finds a partial instantiation of the target variables that maximizes the generalized Bayes factor (GBF) as the best explanation for the given evidence. Our study shows that GBF has several theoretical properties that enable MRE to automatically identify the most relevant target variables in forming its explanation. In particular, conditional Bayes factor (CBF), defined as the GBF of a new explanation conditioned on an existing explanation, provides a soft measure on the degree of relevance of the variables in the new explanation in explaining the evidence given the existing explanation. As a result, MRE is able to automatically prune less relevant variables from its explanation. We also show that CBF is able to capture well the explaining-away phenomenon that is often represented in Bayesian networks. Moreover, we define two dominance relations between the candidate solutions and use the relations to generalize MRE to find a set of top explanations that is both diverse and representative. Case studies on several benchmark diagnostic Bayesian networks show that MRE is often able to find explanatory hypotheses that are not only precise but also concise.