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 Uncertainty


A Bayesian Framework for Community Detection Integrating Content and Link

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper addresses the problem of community detection in networked data that combines link and content analysis. Most existing work combines link and content information by a generative model. There are two major shortcomings with the existing approaches. First, they assume that the probability of creating a link between two nodes is determined only by the community memberships of the nodes; however other factors (e.g. popularity) could also affect the link pattern. Second, they use generative models to model the content of individual nodes, whereas these generative models are vulnerable to the content attributes that are irrelevant to communities. We propose a Bayesian framework for combining link and content information for community detection that explicitly addresses these shortcomings. A new link model is presented that introduces a random variable to capture the node popularity when deciding the link between two nodes; a discriminative model is used to determine the community membership of a node by its content. An approximate inference algorithm is presented for efficient Bayesian inference. Our empirical study shows that the proposed framework outperforms several state-of-theart approaches in combining link and content information for community detection.


MAP Estimation of Semi-Metric MRFs via Hierarchical Graph Cuts

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider the task of obtaining the maximum a posteriori estimate of discrete pairwise random fields with arbitrary unary potentials and semimetric pairwise potentials. For this problem, we propose an accurate hierarchical move making strategy where each move is computed efficiently by solving an st-MINCUT problem. Unlike previous move making approaches, e.g. the widely used a-expansion algorithm, our method obtains the guarantees of the standard linear programming (LP) relaxation for the important special case of metric labeling. Unlike the existing LP relaxation solvers, e.g. interior-point algorithms or tree-reweighted message passing, our method is significantly faster as it uses only the efficient st-MINCUT algorithm in its design. Using both synthetic and real data experiments, we show that our technique outperforms several commonly used algorithms.


Poultry Diseases Expert System using Dempster-Shafer Theory

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Based on World Health Organization (WHO) fact sheet in the 2011, outbreaks of poultry diseases especially Avian Influenza in poultry may raise global public health concerns due to their effect on poultry populations, their potential to cause serious disease in people, and their pandemic potential. In this research, we built a Poultry Diseases Expert System using Dempster-Shafer Theory. In this Poultry Diseases Expert System We describe five symptoms which include depression, combs, wattle, bluish face region, swollen face region, narrowness of eyes, and balance disorders. The result of the research is that Poultry Diseases Expert System has been successfully identifying poultry diseases.


Bayesian clustering in decomposable graphs

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper we propose a class of prior distributions on decomposable graphs, allowing for improved modeling flexibility. While existing methods solely penalize the number of edges, the proposed work empowers practitioners to control clustering, level of separation, and other features of the graph. Emphasis is placed on a particular prior distribution which derives its motivation from the class of product partition models; the properties of this prior relative to existing priors is examined through theory and simulation. We then demonstrate the use of graphical models in the field of agriculture, showing how the proposed prior distribution alleviates the inflexibility of previous approaches in properly modeling the interactions between the yield of different crop varieties.


Hyperspectral Unmixing Overview: Geometrical, Statistical, and Sparse Regression-Based Approaches

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Imaging spectrometers measure electromagnetic energy scattered in their instantaneous field view in hundreds or thousands of spectral channels with higher spectral resolution than multispectral cameras. Imaging spectrometers are therefore often referred to as hyperspectral cameras (HSCs). Higher spectral resolution enables material identification via spectroscopic analysis, which facilitates countless applications that require identifying materials in scenarios unsuitable for classical spectroscopic analysis. Due to low spatial resolution of HSCs, microscopic material mixing, and multiple scattering, spectra measured by HSCs are mixtures of spectra of materials in a scene. Thus, accurate estimation requires unmixing. Pixels are assumed to be mixtures of a few materials, called endmembers. Unmixing involves estimating all or some of: the number of endmembers, their spectral signatures, and their abundances at each pixel. Unmixing is a challenging, ill-posed inverse problem because of model inaccuracies, observation noise, environmental conditions, endmember variability, and data set size. Researchers have devised and investigated many models searching for robust, stable, tractable, and accurate unmixing algorithms. This paper presents an overview of unmixing methods from the time of Keshava and Mustard's unmixing tutorial [1] to the present. Mixing models are first discussed. Signal-subspace, geometrical, statistical, sparsity-based, and spatial-contextual unmixing algorithms are described. Mathematical problems and potential solutions are described. Algorithm characteristics are illustrated experimentally.


A Privacy-Aware Bayesian Approach for Combining Classifier and Cluster Ensembles

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper introduces a privacy-aware Bayesian approach that combines ensembles of classifiers and clusterers to perform semi-supervised and transductive learning. We consider scenarios where instances and their classification/clustering results are distributed across different data sites and have sharing restrictions. As a special case, the privacy aware computation of the model when instances of the target data are distributed across different data sites, is also discussed. Experimental results show that the proposed approach can provide good classification accuracies while adhering to the data/model sharing constraints.


The Discrete Infinite Logistic Normal Distribution

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We present the discrete infinite logistic normal distribution (DILN), a Bayesian nonparametric prior for mixed membership models. DILN is a generalization of the hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) that models correlation structure between the weights of the atoms at the group level. We derive a representation of DILN as a normalized collection of gamma-distributed random variables, and study its statistical properties. We consider applications to topic modeling and derive a variational inference algorithm for approximate posterior inference. We study the empirical performance of the DILN topic model on four corpora, comparing performance with the HDP and the correlated topic model (CTM). To deal with large-scale data sets, we also develop an online inference algorithm for DILN and compare with online HDP and online LDA on the Nature magazine, which contains approximately 350,000 articles.


Avian Influenza (H5N1) Warning System using Dempster-Shafer Theory and Web Mapping

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Based on Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza (H5N1) Reported to World Health Organization (WHO) in the 2011 from 15 countries, Indonesia has the largest number death because Avian Influenza which 146 deaths. In this research, the researcher built a Web Mapping and Dempster-Shafer theory as early warning system of avian influenza. Early warning is the provision of timely and effective information, through identified institutions, that allows individuals exposed to a hazard to take action to avoid or reduce their risk and prepare for effective response. In this paper as example we use five symptoms as major symptoms which include depression, combs, wattle, bluish face region, swollen face region, narrowness of eyes, and balance disorders. Research location is in the Lampung Province, South Sumatera. The researcher reason to choose Lampung Province in South Sumatera on the basis that has a high poultry population. Geographically, Lampung province is located at 103040' to 105050' East Longitude and 6045' - 3045' South latitude, confined with: South Sumatera and Bengkulu on North Side, Sunda Strait on the Side, Java Sea on the East Side, Indonesia Ocean on the West Side. Our approach uses Dempster Shafer theory to combine beliefs in certain hypotheses under conditions of uncertainty and ignorance, and allows quantitative measurement of the belief and plausibility in our identification result. Web Mapping is also used for displaying maps on a screen to visualize the result of the identification process. The result reveal that avian influenza warning system has successfully identified the existence of avian influenza and the maps can be displayed as the visualization.


Avian Influenza (H5N1) Expert System using Dempster-Shafer Theory

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Based on Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza (H5N1) Reported to World Health Organization (WHO) in the 2011 from 15 countries, Indonesia has the largest number death because Avian Influenza which 146 deaths. In this research, the researcher built an Avian Influenza (H5N1) Expert System for identifying avian influenza disease and displaying the result of identification process. In this paper, we describe five symptoms as major symptoms which include depression, combs, wattle, bluish face region, swollen face region, narrowness of eyes, and balance disorders. We use chicken as research object. Research location is in the Lampung Province, South Sumatera. The researcher reason to choose Lampung Province in South Sumatera on the basis that has a high poultry population. Dempster-Shafer theory to quantify the degree of belief as inference engine in expert system, our approach uses Dempster-Shafer theory to combine beliefs under conditions of uncertainty and ignorance, and allows quantitative measurement of the belief and plausibility in our identification result. The result reveal that Avian Influenza (H5N1) Expert System has successfully identified the existence of avian influenza and displaying the result of identification process.


EP-GIG Priors and Applications in Bayesian Sparse Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper we propose a novel framework for the construction of sparsity-inducing priors. In particular, we define such priors as a mixture of exponential power distributions with a generalized inverse Gaussian density (EP-GIG). EP-GIG is a variant of generalized hyperbolic distributions, and the special cases include Gaussian scale mixtures and Laplace scale mixtures. Furthermore, Laplace scale mixtures can subserve a Bayesian framework for sparse learning with nonconvex penalization. The densities of EP-GIG can be explicitly expressed. Moreover, the corresponding posterior distribution also follows a generalized inverse Gaussian distribution. These properties lead us to EM algorithms for Bayesian sparse learning. We show that these algorithms bear an interesting resemblance to iteratively re-weighted $\ell_2$ or $\ell_1$ methods. In addition, we present two extensions for grouped variable selection and logistic regression.