In recent years, a rich variety of shrinkage priors have been proposed that have great promise in addressing massive regression problems. In general, these new priors can be expressed as scale mixtures of normals, but have more complex forms and better properties than traditional Cauchy and double exponential priors. We first propose a new class of normal scale mixtures through a novel generalized beta distribution that encompasses many interesting priors as special cases. This encompassing framework should prove useful in comparing competing priors, considering properties and revealing close connections. We then develop a class of variational Bayes approximations through the new hierarchy presented that will scale more efficiently to the types of truly massive data sets that are now encountered routinely.

Approximate inference is an important technique for dealing with large, intractable graphical models based on the exponential family of distributions. We extend the idea of approximate inference to the t-exponential family by defining a new t-divergence. This divergence measure is obtained via convex duality between the log-partition function of the t-exponential family and a new t-entropy. We illustrate our approach on the Bayes Point Machine with a Student's t-prior.

We consider the computational complexity of probabilistic inference in Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). First, we study the problem of finding the maximum a posteriori (MAP) assignment of topics to words, where the document's topic distribution is integrated out. We show that, when the effective number of topics per document is small, exact inference takes polynomial time. In contrast, we show that, when a document has a large number of topics, finding the MAP assignment of topics to words in LDA is NP-hard. Next, we consider the problem of finding the MAP topic distribution for a document, where the topic-word assignments are integrated out. We show that this problem is also NP-hard. Finally, we briefly discuss the problem of sampling from the posterior, showing that this is NP-hard in one restricted setting, but leaving open the general question.

Fitted value iteration (FVI) with ordinary least squares regression is known to diverge. We present a new method, "Expansion-Constrained Ordinary Least Squares" (ECOLS), that produces a linear approximation but also guarantees convergence when used with FVI. To ensure convergence, we constrain the least squares regression operator to be a non-expansion in the infinity-norm. We show that the space of function approximators that satisfy this constraint is more rich than the space of "averagers," we prove a minimax property of the ECOLS residual error, and we give an efficient algorithm for computing the coefficients of ECOLS based on constraint generation. We illustrate the algorithmic convergence of FVI with ECOLS in a suite of experiments, and discuss its properties.

An increasing number of experimental studies indicate that perception encodes a posterior probability distribution over possible causes of sensory stimuli, which is used to act close to optimally in the environment. One outstanding difficulty with this hypothesis is that the exact posterior will in general be too complex to be represented directly, and thus neurons will have to represent an approximation of this distribution. Two influential proposals of efficient posterior representation by neural populations are: 1) neural activity represents samples of the underlying distribution, or 2) they represent a parametric representation of a variational approximation of the posterior. We show that these approaches can be combined for an inference scheme that retains the advantages of both: it is able to represent multiple modes and arbitrary correlations, a feature of sampling methods, and it reduces the represented space to regions of high probability mass, a strength of variational approximations. Neurally, the combined method can be interpreted as a feed-forward preselection of the relevant state space, followed by a neural dynamics implementation of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to approximate the posterior over the relevant states. We demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of this approach on a sparse coding model. In numerical experiments on artificial data and image patches, we compare the performance of the algorithms to that of exact EM, variational state space selection alone, MCMC alone, and the combined select and sample approach. The select and sample approach integrates the advantages of the sampling and variational approximations, and forms a robust, neurally plausible, and very efficient model of processing and learning in cortical networks. For sparse coding we show applications easily exceeding a thousand observed and a thousand hidden dimensions.

Latent variable models are frequently used to identify structure in dichotomous network data, in part because they give rise to a Bernoulli product likelihood that is both well understood and consistent with the notion of exchangeable random graphs. In this article we propose conservative confidence sets that hold with respect to these underlying Bernoulli parameters as a function of any given partition of network nodes, enabling us to assess estimates of \emph{residual} network structure, that is, structure that cannot be explained by known covariates and thus cannot be easily verified by manual inspection. We demonstrate the proposed methodology by analyzing student friendship networks from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health that include race, gender, and school year as covariates. We employ a stochastic expectation-maximization algorithm to fit a logistic regression model that includes these explanatory variables as well as a latent stochastic blockmodel component and additional node-specific effects. Although maximum-likelihood estimates do not appear consistent in this context, we are able to evaluate confidence sets as a function of different blockmodel partitions, which enables us to qualitatively assess the significance of estimated residual network structure relative to a baseline, which models covariates but lacks block structure.

Simultaneous recordings of many neurons embedded within a recurrently-connected cortical network may provide concurrent views into the dynamical processes of that network, and thus its computational function. In principle, these dynamics might be identified by purely unsupervised, statistical means. Here, we show that a Hidden Switching Linear Dynamical Systems (HSLDS) model---in which multiple linear dynamical laws approximate a nonlinear and potentially non-stationary dynamical process---is able to distinguish different dynamical regimes within single-trial motor cortical activity associated with the preparation and initiation of hand movements. The regimes are identified without reference to behavioural or experimental epochs, but nonetheless transitions between them correlate strongly with external events whose timing may vary from trial to trial. The HSLDS model also performs better than recent comparable models in predicting the firing rate of an isolated neuron based on the firing rates of others, suggesting that it captures more of the "shared variance" of the data. Thus, the method is able to trace the dynamical processes underlying the coordinated evolution of network activity in a way that appears to reflect its computational role.

The difficulty in inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) arises in choosing the best reward function since there are typically an infinite number of reward functions that yield the given behaviour data as optimal. Using a Bayesian framework, we address this challenge by using the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation for the reward function, and show that most of the previous IRL algorithms can be modeled into our framework. We also present a gradient method for the MAP estimation based on the (sub)differentiability of the posterior distribution. We show the effectiveness of our approach by comparing the performance of the proposed method to those of the previous algorithms.

How do people determine which elements of a set are most representative of that set? We extend an existing Bayesian measure of representativeness, which indicates the representativeness of a sample from a distribution, to define a measure of the representativeness of an item to a set. We show that this measure is formally related to a machine learning method known as Bayesian Sets. Building on this connection, we derive an analytic expression for the representativeness of objects described by a sparse vector of binary features. We then apply this measure to a large database of images, using it to determine which images are the most representative members of different sets. Comparing the resulting predictions to human judgments of representativeness provides a test of this measure with naturalistic stimuli, and illustrates how databases that are more commonly used in computer vision and machine learning can be used to evaluate psychological theories.

We present an asymptotic analysis of Viterbi Training (VT) and contrast it with a more conventional Maximum Likelihood (ML) approach to parameter estimation in Hidden Markov Models. While ML estimator works by (locally) maximizing the likelihood of the observed data, VT seeks to maximize the probability of the most likely hidden state sequence. We develop an analytical framework based on a generating function formalism and illustrate it on an exactly solvable model of HMM with one unambiguous symbol. For this particular model the ML objective function is continuously degenerate. VT objective, in contrast, is shown to have only finite degeneracy. Furthermore, VT converges faster and results in sparser (simpler) models, thus realizing an automatic Occam's razor for HMM learning. For more general scenario VT can be worse compared to ML but still capable of correctly recovering most of the parameters.