Graphical models use graphs to compactly capture stochastic dependencies amongst a collection of random variables. Inference over graphical models corresponds to finding marginal probability distributions given joint probability distributions. In general, this is computationally intractable, which has led to a quest for finding efficient approximate inference algorithms. We propose a framework for generalized inference over graphical models that can be used as a wrapper for improving the estimates of approximate inference algorithms. Instead of applying an inference algorithm to the original graph, we apply the inference algorithm to a block-graph, defined as a graph in which the nodes are non-overlapping clusters of nodes from the original graph. This results in marginal estimates of a cluster of nodes, which we further marginalize to get the marginal estimates of each node. Our proposed block-graph construction algorithm is simple, efficient, and motivated by the observation that approximate inference is more accurate on graphs with longer cycles. We present extensive numerical simulations that illustrate our block-graph framework with a variety of inference algorithms (e.g., those in the libDAI software package). These simulations show the improvements provided by our framework.

Gaussian processes (GP) are attractive building blocks for many probabilistic models. Their drawbacks, however, are the rapidly increasing inference time and memory requirement alongside increasing data. The problem can be alleviated with compactly supported (CS) covariance functions, which produce sparse covariance matrices that are fast in computations and cheap to store. CS functions have previously been used in GP regression but here the focus is in a classification problem. This brings new challenges since the posterior inference has to be done approximately. We utilize the expectation propagation algorithm and show how its standard implementation has to be modified to obtain computational benefits from the sparse covariance matrices. We study four CS covariance functions and show that they may lead to substantial speed up in the inference time compared to globally supported functions.

We propose a new method for estimating the intrinsic dimension of a dataset by applying the principle of regularized maximum likelihood to the distances between close neighbors. We propose a regularization scheme which is motivated by divergence minimization principles. We derive the estimator by a Poisson process approximation, argue about its convergence properties and apply it to a number of simulated and real datasets. We also show it has the best overall performance compared with two other intrinsic dimension estimators.

Multi-task learning is a learning paradigm which seeks to improve the generalization performance of a learning task with the help of some other related tasks. In this paper, we propose a regularization formulation for learning the relationships between tasks in multi-task learning. This formulation can be viewed as a novel generalization of the regularization framework for single-task learning. Besides modeling positive task correlation, our method, called multi-task relationship learning (MTRL), can also describe negative task correlation and identify outlier tasks based on the same underlying principle. Under this regularization framework, the objective function of MTRL is convex. For efficiency, we use an alternating method to learn the optimal model parameters for each task as well as the relationships between tasks. We study MTRL in the symmetric multi-task learning setting and then generalize it to the asymmetric setting as well. We also study the relationships between MTRL and some existing multi-task learning methods. Experiments conducted on a toy problem as well as several benchmark data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of MTRL.

Recent reports have described that the equivalent sample size (ESS) in a Dirichlet prior plays an important role in learning Bayesian networks. This paper provides an asymptotic analysis of the marginal likelihood score for a Bayesian network. Results show that the ratio of the ESS and sample size determine the penalty of adding arcs in learning Bayesian networks. The number of arcs increases monotonically as the ESS increases; the number of arcs monotonically decreases as the ESS decreases. Furthermore, the marginal likelihood score provides a unified expression of various score metrics by changing prior knowledge.

We study the problem of learning Bayesian network structures from data. We develop an algorithm for finding the k-best Bayesian network structures. We propose to compute the posterior probabilities of hypotheses of interest by Bayesian model averaging over the k-best Bayesian networks. We present empirical results on structural discovery over several real and synthetic data sets and show that the method outperforms the model selection method and the state of-the-art MCMC methods.

Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) methods are drawing great interest after yielding breakthrough results in computer Go. This paper proposes a Bayesian approach to MCTS that is inspired by distributionfree approaches such as UCT [13], yet significantly differs in important respects. The Bayesian framework allows potentially much more accurate (Bayes-optimal) estimation of node values and node uncertainties from a limited number of simulation trials. We further propose propagating inference in the tree via fast analytic Gaussian approximation methods: this can make the overhead of Bayesian inference manageable in domains such as Go, while preserving high accuracy of expected-value estimates. We find substantial empirical outperformance of UCT in an idealized bandit-tree test environment, where we can obtain valuable insights by comparing with known ground truth. Additionally we rigorously prove on-policy and off-policy convergence of the proposed methods.

Relational learning can be used to augment one data source with other correlated sources of information, to improve predictive accuracy. We frame a large class of relational learning problems as matrix factorization problems, and propose a hierarchical Bayesian model. Training our Bayesian model using random-walk Metropolis-Hastings is impractically slow, and so we develop a block Metropolis-Hastings sampler which uses the gradient and Hessian of the likelihood to dynamically tune the proposal. We demonstrate that a predictive model of brain response to stimuli can be improved by augmenting it with side information about the stimuli.

We present a probabilistic model of events in continuous time in which each event triggers a Poisson process of successor events. The ensemble of observed events is thereby modeled as a superposition of Poisson processes. Efficient inference is feasible under this model with an EM algorithm. Moreover, the EM algorithm can be implemented as a distributed algorithm, permitting the model to be applied to very large datasets. We apply these techniques to the modeling of Twitter messages and the revision history of Wikipedia.

We speed up marginal inference by ignoring factors that do not significantly contribute to overall accuracy. In order to pick a suitable subset of factors to ignore, we propose three schemes: minimizing the number of model factors under a bound on the KL divergence between pruned and full models; minimizing the KL divergence under a bound on factor count; and minimizing the weighted sum of KL divergence and factor count. All three problems are solved using an approximation of the KL divergence than can be calculated in terms of marginals computed on a simple seed graph. Applied to synthetic image denoising and to three different types of NLP parsing models, this technique performs marginal inference up to 11 times faster than loopy BP, with graph sizes reduced up to 98%--at comparable error in marginals and parsing accuracy. We also show that minimizing the weighted sum of divergence and size is substantially faster than minimizing either of the other objectives based on the approximation to divergence presented here.