In a deterministic world, a planning agent can be certain of the consequences of its planned sequence of actions. Not so, however, in dynamic, stochastic domains where Markov decision processes are commonly used. Unfortunately these suffer from the `curse of dimensionality': if the state space is a Cartesian product of many small sets (`dimensions'), planning is exponential in the number of those dimensions. Our new technique exploits the intuitive strategy of selectively ignoring various dimensions in different parts of the state space. The resulting non-uniformity has strong implications, since the approximation is no longer Markovian, requiring the use of a modified planner. We also use a spatial and temporal proximity measure, which responds to continued planning as well as movement of the agent through the state space, to dynamically adapt the abstraction as planning progresses. We present qualitative and quantitative results across a range of experimental domains showing that an agent exploiting this novel approximation method successfully finds solutions to the planning problem using much less than the full state space. We assess and analyse the features of domains which our method can exploit.

Relational data representations have become an increasingly important topic due to the recent proliferation of network datasets (e.g., social, biological, information networks) and a corresponding increase in the application of statistical relational learning (SRL) algorithms to these domains. In this article, we examine a range of representation issues for graph-based relational data. Since the choice of relational data representation--for the nodes, links, and features--can dramatically affect the capabilities of SRL algorithms, we survey approaches and opportunities for relational representation transformation designed to improve the performance of these algorithms. This leads us to introduce an intuitive taxonomy for data representation transformations in relational domains that incorporates link transformation and node transformation as symmetric representation tasks. In particular, the transformation tasks for both nodes and links include (i) predicting their existence, (ii) predicting their label or type, (iii) estimating their weight or importance, and (iv) systematically constructing their relevant features. We motivate our taxonomy through detailed examples and use it to survey and compare competing approaches for each of these tasks. We also discuss general conditions for transforming links, nodes, and features. Finally, we highlight challenges that remain to be addressed.

Given a collection of objects and an associated similarity measure, the all-pairs similarity search problem asks us to find all pairs of objects with similarity greater than a certain user-specified threshold. Locality-sensitive hashing (LSH) based methods have become a very popular approach for this problem. However, most such methods only use LSH for the first phase of similarity search - i.e. efficient indexing for candidate generation. In this paper, we present BayesLSH, a principled Bayesian algorithm for the subsequent phase of similarity search - performing candidate pruning and similarity estimation using LSH. A simpler variant, BayesLSH-Lite, which calculates similarities exactly, is also presented. BayesLSH is able to quickly prune away a large majority of the false positive candidate pairs, leading to significant speedups over baseline approaches. For BayesLSH, we also provide probabilistic guarantees on the quality of the output, both in terms of accuracy and recall. Finally, the quality of BayesLSH's output can be easily tuned and does not require any manual setting of the number of hashes to use for similarity estimation, unlike standard approaches. For two state-of-the-art candidate generation algorithms, AllPairs and LSH, BayesLSH enables significant speedups, typically in the range 2x-20x for a wide variety of datasets.

We combine Bayesian networks (BNs) and structural reliability methods (SRMs) to create a new computational framework, termed enhanced Bayesian network (eBN), for reliability and risk analysis of engineering structures and infrastructure. BNs are efficient in representing and evaluating complex probabilistic dependence structures, as present in infrastructure and structural systems, and they facilitate Bayesian updating of the model when new information becomes available. On the other hand, SRMs enable accurate assessment of probabilities of rare events represented by computationally demanding, physically-based models. By combining the two methods, the eBN framework provides a unified and powerful tool for efficiently computing probabilities of rare events in complex structural and infrastructure systems in which information evolves in time. Strategies for modeling and efficiently analyzing the eBN are described by way of several conceptual examples. The companion paper applies the eBN methodology to example structural and infrastructure systems.

Computational social science, as with all complex adaptive systems sciences, involves a great amount of uncertainty on several fronts, including intrinsic arbitrariness such as that due to path dependence, disagreement on social theory and how to capture it in software, input data of different credibility that does not exactly match the requirements of software because it was gathered for another purpose, and inexactly matching translations between models that were designed for different purposes than the study at hand. This paper presents a method of formally tracking that uncertainty, keeping the data input parameters proportionate with logical and probabilistic constraints, and capturing proportionate dynamics of the output ordered by the decision points of policy change, for the purpose of risk-based analysis. Once ordered this way, the data can be compared to other data similarly expressed, whether that data is from simulation excursions or from the real world, for objective comparison and distance scoring at the level of dynamic patterns as opposed to single outcome validation. This method enables wargame adjudicators to be run out with data gleaned from the wargame, enables data to be repurposed for both training and testing set, and facilitates objective validation scoring through soft matching. Artificial intelligence tools used in the method include probabilistic ontologies with crisp and Bayesian inference, game trees that are multiplayer non-zero sum and decision point based rather than turn-based, and Markov processes to represent the dynamic data and align the models for objective comparison.

The theoretically elegant yet broadly functional capability of graphical models shows intriguing potential to span in a uniform manner perception, cognition and action; and thus to ultimately yield simpler yet more powerful integrated architectures for intelligent robots and other comparable systems. This position paper explores this potential, with initial support from an effort underway to develop a graphical architecture that is based on factor graphs (with piecewise continuous functions).

We propose a general scheme for quality-controlled labeling of large-scale data using multiple labels from the crowd and a “few” ground truth labels from an expert of the field. Expert-labeled instances are used to assign weights to the expertise of each crowd labeler and to the difficulty of each instance. Ground truth labels for all instances are then approximated through those weights and the crowd labels. We argue that injecting a little expertise in the labeling process, will significantly improve the accuracy of the labeling task. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that our methodology is efficient and effective as it gives better quality labels than majority voting and other state-of-the-art methods even in the presence of a large proportion of low-quality labelers in the crowd.

The concept of trust in web services describes the degree of belief that a client or a group of clients have over services functioning satisfactorily and providing the expected results. As services are usually invoked in composition with other services, judging on their trustworthiness gets more complicated, yet computing their trustworthy becomes a desired goal. Existing work only take the trust of each individual service into account, regardless of the context of the composition. They also do not use the data gained from other clients for selecting the most trustful composition and preparing for possible service failures. In our work we first introduce the concept of Combination Reputation, which reflects the commonness and popularity of invoaction of a pair or group of services among other clients. By interpreting the trust and reputation values as subjective probability, we define the Component Trust of the services in the composition, which reflects the degree of belief the client has over components of services performing satisfactorily. We model the web service composition as a Bayesian network and integrate the above trust values into the network and show how to compute the global trust of the composition.

There are an increasing number of applications of security games. One of the key challenges for this field going forward is to address the problem of model uncertainty and the robustness of the game-theoretic solutions. Most existing methods for dealing with payoff uncertainty are Bayesian methods which are NP-hard and have difficulty scaling to very large problems. In this work we consider an alternative approach based on interval uncertainty. For a variant of security games with interval uncertainty we introduce a polynomial-time approximation algorithm that can compute very accurate solutions within a given error bound.

We propose a solution to the image deconvolution problem where the convolution kernel or point spread function (PSF) is assumed to be only partially known. Small perturbations generated from the model are exploited to produce a few principal components explaining the PSF uncertainty in a high dimensional space. Unlike recent developments on blind deconvolution of natural images, we assume the image is sparse in the pixel basis, a natural sparsity arising in magnetic resonance force microscopy (MRFM). Our approach adopts a Bayesian Metropolis-within-Gibbs sampling framework. The performance of our Bayesian semi-blind algorithm for sparse images is superior to previously proposed semi-blind algorithms such as the alternating minimization (AM) algorithm and blind algorithms developed for natural images. We illustrate our myopic algorithm on real MRFM tobacco virus data.