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 Uncertainty


The Nonparametric Metadata Dependent Relational Model

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce the nonparametric metadata dependent relational (NMDR) model, a Bayesian nonparametric stochastic block model for network data. The NMDR allows the entities associated with each node to have mixed membership in an unbounded collection of latent communities. Learned regression models allow these memberships to depend on, and be predicted from, arbitrary node metadata. We develop efficient MCMC algorithms for learning NMDR models from partially observed node relationships. Retrospective MCMC methods allow our sampler to work directly with the infinite stick-breaking representation of the NMDR, avoiding the need for finite truncations. Our results demonstrate recovery of useful latent communities from real-world social and ecological networks, and the usefulness of metadata in link prediction tasks.


Ranking by Dependence - A Fair Criteria

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Estimating the dependences between random variables, and ranking them accordingly, is a prevalent problem in machine learning. Pursuing frequentist and information-theoretic approaches, we first show that the p-value and the mutual information can fail even in simplistic situations. We then propose two conditions for regularizing an estimator of dependence, which leads to a simple yet effective new measure. We discuss its advantages and compare it to well-established model-selection criteria. Apart from that, we derive a simple constraint for regularizing parameter estimates in a graphical model. This results in an analytical approximation for the optimal value of the equivalent sample size, which agrees very well with the more involved Bayesian approach in our experiments.


Convergence of the EM Algorithm for Gaussian Mixtures with Unbalanced Mixing Coefficients

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The speed of convergence of the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm for Gaussian mixture model fitting is known to be dependent on the amount of overlap among the mixture components. In this paper, we study the impact of mixing coefficients on the convergence of EM. We show that when the mixture components exhibit some overlap, the convergence of EM becomes slower as the dynamic range among the mixing coefficients increases. We propose a deterministic anti-annealing algorithm, that significantly improves the speed of convergence of EM for such mixtures with unbalanced mixing coefficients. The proposed algorithm is compared against other standard optimization techniques like BFGS, Conjugate Gradient, and the traditional EM algorithm. Finally, we propose a similar deterministic anti-annealing based algorithm for the Dirichlet process mixture model and demonstrate its advantages over the conventional variational Bayesian approach.


Learning Object Arrangements in 3D Scenes using Human Context

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider the problem of learning object arrangements in a 3D scene. The key idea here is to learn how objects relate to human poses based on their affordances, ease of use and reachability. In contrast to modeling object-object relationships, modeling human-object relationships scales linearly in the number of objects. We design appropriate density functions based on 3D spatial features to capture this. We learn the distribution of human poses in a scene using a variant of the Dirichlet process mixture model that allows sharing of the density function parameters across the same object types. Then we can reason about arrangements of the objects in the room based on these meaningful human poses. In our extensive experiments on 20 different rooms with a total of 47 objects, our algorithm predicted correct placements with an average error of 1.6 meters from ground truth. In arranging five real scenes, it received a score of 4.3/5 compared to 3.7 for the best baseline method.


A Topic Model for Melodic Sequences

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We examine the problem of learning a probabilistic model for melody directly from musical sequences belonging to the same genre. This is a challenging task as one needs to capture not only the rich temporal structure evident in music, but also the complex statistical dependencies among different music components. To address this problem we introduce the Variable-gram Topic Model, which couples the latent topic formalism with a systematic model for contextual information. We evaluate the model on next-step prediction. Additionally, we present a novel way of model evaluation, where we directly compare model samples with data sequences using the Maximum Mean Discrepancy of string kernels, to assess how close is the model distribution to the data distribution. We show that the model has the highest performance under both evaluation measures when compared to LDA, the Topic Bigram and related non-topic models.


On the Partition Function and Random Maximum A-Posteriori Perturbations

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper we relate the partition function to the max-statistics of random variables. In particular, we provide a novel framework for approximating and bounding the partition function using MAP inference on randomly perturbed models. As a result, we can use efficient MAP solvers such as graph-cuts to evaluate the corresponding partition function. We show that our method excels in the typical "high signal - high coupling" regime that results in ragged energy landscapes difficult for alternative approaches.


Modeling Temporal Dependencies in High-Dimensional Sequences: Application to Polyphonic Music Generation and Transcription

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We investigate the problem of modeling symbolic sequences of polyphonic music in a completely general piano-roll representation. We introduce a probabilistic model based on distribution estimators conditioned on a recurrent neural network that is able to discover temporal dependencies in high-dimensional sequences. Our approach outperforms many traditional models of polyphonic music on a variety of realistic datasets. We show how our musical language model can serve as a symbolic prior to improve the accuracy of polyphonic transcription.


Bayesian Random Fields: The Bethe-Laplace Approximation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

While learning the maximum likelihood value of parameters of an undirected graphical model is hard, modelling the posterior distribution over parameters given data is harder. Yet, undirected models are ubiquitous in computer vision and text modelling (e.g. conditional random fields). But where Bayesian approaches for directed models have been very successful, a proper Bayesian treatment of undirected models in still in its infant stages. We propose a new method for approximating the posterior of the parameters given data based on the Laplace approximation. This approximation requires the computation of the covariance matrix over features which we compute using the linear response approximation based in turn on loopy belief propagation. We develop the theory for conditional and 'unconditional' random fields with or without hidden variables. In the conditional setting we introduce a new variant of bagging suitable for structured domains. Here we run the loopy max-product algorithm on a 'super-graph' composed of graphs for individual models sampled from the posterior and connected by constraints. Experiments on real world data validate the proposed methods.


Faster Gaussian Summation: Theory and Experiment

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We provide faster algorithms for the problem of Gaussian summation, which occurs in many machine learning methods. We develop two new extensions - an O(Dp) Taylor expansion for the Gaussian kernel with rigorous error bounds and a new error control scheme integrating any arbitrary approximation method - within the best discretealgorithmic framework using adaptive hierarchical data structures. We rigorously evaluate these techniques empirically in the context of optimal bandwidth selection in kernel density estimation, revealing the strengths and weaknesses of current state-of-the-art approaches for the first time. Our results demonstrate that the new error control scheme yields improved performance, whereas the series expansion approach is only effective in low dimensions (five or less).


Bayesian Efficient Multiple Kernel Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Multiple kernel learning algorithms are proposed to combine kernels in order to obtain a better similarity measure or to integrate feature representations coming from different data sources. Most of the previous research on such methods is focused on the computational efficiency issue. However, it is still not feasible to combine many kernels using existing Bayesian approaches due to their high time complexity. We propose a fully conjugate Bayesian formulation and derive a deterministic variational approximation, which allows us to combine hundreds or thousands of kernels very efficiently. We briefly explain how the proposed method can be extended for multiclass learning and semi-supervised learning. Experiments with large numbers of kernels on benchmark data sets show that our inference method is quite fast, requiring less than a minute. On one bioinformatics and three image recognition data sets, our method outperforms previously reported results with better generalization performance.