Early, reliable detection of disease outbreaks is a critical problem today. This paper reports an investigation of the use of causal Bayesian networks to model spatio-temporal patterns of a non-contagious disease (respiratory anthrax infection) in a population of people. The number of parameters in such a network can become enormous, if not carefully managed. Also, inference needs to be performed in real time as population data stream in. We describe techniques we have applied to address both the modeling and inference challenges. A key contribution of this paper is the explication of assumptions and techniques that are sufficient to allow the scaling of Bayesian network modeling and inference to millions of nodes for real-time surveillance applications. The results reported here provide a proof-of-concept that Bayesian networks can serve as the foundation of a system that effectively performs Bayesian biosurveillance of disease outbreaks.

A key prerequisite to optimal reasoning under uncertainty in intelligent systems is to start with good class probability estimates. This paper improves on the current best probability estimation trees (Bagged-PETs) and also presents a new ensemble-based algorithm (MOB-ESP). Comparisons are made using several benchmark datasets and multiple metrics. These experiments show that MOB-ESP outputs significantly more accurate class probabilities than either the baseline BPETs algorithm or the enhanced version presented here (EB-PETs). These results are based on metrics closely associated with the average accuracy of the predictions. MOB-ESP also provides much better probability rankings than B-PETs. The paper further suggests how these estimation techniques can be applied in concert with a broader category of classifiers.

Probabilistic inference problems arise naturally in distributed systems such as sensor networks and teams of mobile robots. Inference algorithms that use message passing are a natural fit for distributed systems, but they must be robust to the failure situations that arise in real-world settings, such as unreliable communication and node failures. Unfortunately, the popular sum-product algorithm can yield very poor estimates in these settings because the nodes' beliefs before convergence can be arbitrarily different from the correct posteriors. In this paper, we present a new message passing algorithm for probabilistic inference which provides several crucial guarantees that the standard sum-product algorithm does not. Not only does it converge to the correct posteriors, but it is also guaranteed to yield a principled approximation at any point before convergence. In addition, the computational complexity of the message passing updates depends only upon the model, and is dependent of the network topology of the distributed system. We demonstrate the approach with detailed experimental results on a distributed sensor calibration task using data from an actual sensor network deployment.

Maximum a Posteriori assignment (MAP) is the problem of finding the most probable instantiation of a set of variables given the partial evidence on the other variables in a Bayesian network. MAP has been shown to be a NP-hard problem [22], even for constrained networks, such as polytrees [18]. Hence, previous approaches often fail to yield any results for MAP problems in large complex Bayesian networks. To address this problem, we propose AnnealedMAP algorithm, a simulated annealing-based MAP algorithm. The AnnealedMAP algorithm simulates a non-homogeneous Markov chain whose invariant function is a probability density that concentrates itself on the modes of the target density. We tested this algorithm on several real Bayesian networks. The results show that, while maintaining good quality of the MAP solutions, the AnnealedMAP algorithm is also able to solve many problems that are beyond the reach of previous approaches.

We introduce a probabilistic formalism subsuming Markov random fields of bounded tree width and probabilistic context free grammars. Our models are based on a representation of Boolean formulas that we call case-factor diagrams (CFDs). CFDs are similar to binary decision diagrams (BDDs) but are concise for circuits of bounded tree width (unlike BDDs) and can concisely represent the set of parse trees over a given string undera given context free grammar (also unlike BDDs). A probabilistic model consists of aCFD defining a feasible set of Boolean assignments and a weight (or cost) for each individual Boolean variable. We give an insideoutside algorithm for simultaneously computing the marginal of each Boolean variable, and a Viterbi algorithm for finding the mininum cost variable assignment. Both algorithms run in time proportional to the size of the CFD.

Previous work on sensitivity analysis in Bayesian networks has focused on single parameters, where the goal is to understand the sensitivity of queries to single parameter changes, and to identify single parameter changes that would enforce a certain query constraint. In this paper, we expand the work to multiple parameters which may be in the CPT of a single variable, or the CPTs of multiple variables. Not only do we identify the solution space of multiple parameter changes that would be needed to enforce a query constraint, but we also show how to find the optimal solution, that is, the one which disturbs the current probability distribution the least (with respect to a specific measure of disturbance). We characterize the computational complexity of our new techniques and discuss their applications to developing and debugging Bayesian networks, and to the problem of reasoning about the value (reliability) of new information.

For many real-life Bayesian networks, common knowledge dictates that the output established for the main variable of interest increases with higher values for the observable variables. We define two concepts of monotonicity to capture this type of knowledge. We say that a network is isotone in distribution if the probability distribution computed for the output variable given specific observations is stochastically dominated by any such distribution given higher-ordered observations; a network is isotone in mode if a probability distribution given higher observations has a higher mode. We show that establishing whether a network exhibits any of these properties of monotonicity is coNPPP-complete in general, and remains coNP-complete for polytrees. We present an approximate algorithm for deciding whether a network is monotone in distribution and illustrate its application to a real-life network in oncology.

Defeasible argumentation frameworks have evolved to become a sound setting to formalize commonsense, qualitative reasoning from incomplete and potentially inconsistent knowledge. Defeasible Logic Programming (DeLP) is a defeasible argumentation formalism based on an extension of logic programming. Although DeLP has been successfully integrated in a number of different real-world applications, DeLP cannot deal with explicit uncertainty, nor with vague knowledge, as defeasibility is directly encoded in the object language. This paper introduces P-DeLP, a new logic programming language that extends original DeLP capabilities for qualitative reasoning by incorporating the treatment of possibilistic uncertainty and fuzzy knowledge. Such features will be formalized on the basis of PGL, a possibilistic logic based on Godel fuzzy logic.

The paper introduces mixed networks, a new framework for expressing and reasoning with probabilistic and deterministic information. The framework combines belief networks with constraint networks, defining the semantics and graphical representation. We also introduce the AND/OR search space for graphical models, and develop a new linear space search algorithm. This provides the basis for understanding the benefits of processing the constraint information separately, resulting in the pruning of the search space. When the constraint part is tractable or has a small number of solutions, using the mixed representation can be exponentially more effective than using pure belief networks which odel constraints as conditional probability tables.

Generalized belief propagation (GBP) has proven to be a promising technique for approximate inference tasks in AI and machine learning. However, the choice of a good set of clusters to be used in GBP has remained more of an art then a science until this day. This paper proposes a sequential approach to adding new clusters of nodes and their interactions (i.e. "regions") to the approximation. We first review and analyze the recently introduced region graphs and find that three kinds of operations ("split", "merge" and "death") leave the free energy and (under some conditions) the fixed points of GBP invariant. This leads to the notion of "weakly irreducible" regions as the natural candidates to be added to the approximation. Computational complexity of the GBP algorithm is controlled by restricting attention to regions with small "region-width". Combining the above with an efficient (i.e. local in the graph) measure to predict the improved accuracy of GBP leads to the sequential "region pursuit" algorithm for adding new regions bottom-up to the region graph. Experiments show that this algorithm can indeed perform close to optimally.