Probability Bracket Notation (PBN) is applied to systems of multiple random variables for preliminary study of static Bayesian Networks (BN) and Probabilistic Graphic Models (PGM). The famous Student BN Example is explored to show the local independences and reasoning power of a BN. Software package Elvira is used to graphically display the student BN. Our investigation shows that PBN provides a consistent and convenient alternative to manipulate many expressions related to joint, marginal and conditional probability distributions in static BN.

Probabilistic Logic Programming (PLP), exemplified by Sato and Kameya's PRISM, Poole's ICL, Raedt et al's ProbLog and Vennekens et al's LPAD, is aimed at combining statistical and logical knowledge representation and inference. A key characteristic of PLP frameworks is that they are conservative extensions to non-probabilistic logic programs which have been widely used for knowledge representation. PLP frameworks extend traditional logic programming semantics to a distribution semantics, where the semantics of a probabilistic logic program is given in terms of a distribution over possible models of the program. However, the inference techniques used in these works rely on enumerating sets of explanations for a query answer. Consequently, these languages permit very limited use of random variables with continuous distributions. In this paper, we present a symbolic inference procedure that uses constraints and represents sets of explanations without enumeration. This permits us to reason over PLPs with Gaussian or Gamma-distributed random variables (in addition to discrete-valued random variables) and linear equality constraints over reals. We develop the inference procedure in the context of PRISM; however the procedure's core ideas can be easily applied to other PLP languages as well. An interesting aspect of our inference procedure is that PRISM's query evaluation process becomes a special case in the absence of any continuous random variables in the program. The symbolic inference procedure enables us to reason over complex probabilistic models such as Kalman filters and a large subclass of Hybrid Bayesian networks that were hitherto not possible in PLP frameworks. (To appear in Theory and Practice of Logic Programming).

This paper addresses the estimation of the latent dimensionality in nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) with the \beta-divergence. The \beta-divergence is a family of cost functions that includes the squared Euclidean distance, Kullback-Leibler and Itakura-Saito divergences as special cases. Learning the model order is important as it is necessary to strike the right balance between data fidelity and overfitting. We propose a Bayesian model based on automatic relevance determination in which the columns of the dictionary matrix and the rows of the activation matrix are tied together through a common scale parameter in their prior. A family of majorization-minimization algorithms is proposed for maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation. A subset of scale parameters is driven to a small lower bound in the course of inference, with the effect of pruning the corresponding spurious components. We demonstrate the efficacy and robustness of our algorithms by performing extensive experiments on synthetic data, the swimmer dataset, a music decomposition example and a stock price prediction task.

With ever-increasing available data, predicting individuals' preferences and helping them locate the most relevant information has become a pressing need. Understanding and predicting preferences is also important from a fundamental point of view, as part of what has been called a "new" computational social science. Here, we propose a novel approach based on stochastic block models, which have been developed by sociologists as plausible models of complex networks of social interactions. Our model is in the spirit of predicting individuals' preferences based on the preferences of others but, rather than fitting a particular model, we rely on a Bayesian approach that samples over the ensemble of all possible models. We show that our approach is considerably more accurate than leading recommender algorithms, with major relative improvements between 38% and 99% over industry-level algorithms. Besides, our approach sheds light on decision-making processes by identifying groups of individuals that have consistently similar preferences, and enabling the analysis of the characteristics of those groups.

Discovering the latent structure from many observed variables is an important yet challenging learning task. Existing approaches for discovering latent structures often require the unknown number of hidden states as an input. In this paper, we propose a quartet based approach which is \emph{agnostic} to this number. The key contribution is a novel rank characterization of the tensor associated with the marginal distribution of a quartet. This characterization allows us to design a \emph{nuclear norm} based test for resolving quartet relations. We then use the quartet test as a subroutine in a divide-and-conquer algorithm for recovering the latent tree structure. Under mild conditions, the algorithm is consistent and its error probability decays exponentially with increasing sample size. We demonstrate that the proposed approach compares favorably to alternatives. In a real world stock dataset, it also discovers meaningful groupings of variables, and produces a model that fits the data better.

This paper studies the partial estimation of Gaussian graphical models from high-dimensional empirical observations. We derive a convex formulation for this problem using $\ell_1$-regularized maximum-likelihood estimation, which can be solved via a block coordinate descent algorithm. Statistical estimation performance can be established for our method. The proposed approach has competitive empirical performance compared to existing methods, as demonstrated by various experiments on synthetic and real datasets.

Covering-based rough set theory is a useful tool to deal with inexact, uncertain or vague knowledge in information systems. Geometric lattice has widely used in diverse fields, especially search algorithm design which plays important role in covering reductions. In this paper, we construct four geometric lattice structures of covering-based rough sets through matroids, and compare their relationships. First, a geometric lattice structure of covering-based rough sets is established through the transversal matroid induced by the covering, and its characteristics including atoms, modular elements and modular pairs are studied. We also construct a one-to-one correspondence between this type of geometric lattices and transversal matroids in the context of covering-based rough sets. Second, sufficient and necessary conditions for three types of covering upper approximation operators to be closure operators of matroids are presented. We exhibit three types of matroids through closure axioms, and then obtain three geometric lattice structures of covering-based rough sets. Third, these four geometric lattice structures are compared. Some core concepts such as reducible elements in covering-based rough sets are investigated with geometric lattices. In a word, this work points out an interesting view, namely geometric lattice, to study covering-based rough sets.

This paper assumes the hypothesis that human learning is perception based, and consequently, the learning process and perceptions should not be represented and investigated independently or modeled in different simulation spaces. In order to keep the analogy between the artificial and human learning, the former is assumed here as being based on the artificial perception. Hence, instead of choosing to apply or develop a Computational Theory of (human) Perceptions, we choose to mirror the human perceptions in a numeric (computational) space as artificial perceptions and to analyze the interdependence between artificial learning and artificial perception in the same numeric space, using one of the simplest tools of Artificial Intelligence and Soft Computing, namely the perceptrons. As practical applications, we choose to work around two examples: Optical Character Recognition and Iris Recognition. In both cases a simple Turing test shows that artificial perceptions of the difference between two characters and between two irides are fuzzy, whereas the corresponding human perceptions are, in fact, crisp.

In binary-transaction data-mining, traditional frequent itemset mining often produces results which are not straightforward to interpret. To overcome this problem, probability models are often used to produce more compact and conclusive results, albeit with some loss of accuracy. Bayesian statistics have been widely used in the development of probability models in machine learning in recent years and these methods have many advantages, including their abilities to avoid overfitting. In this paper, we develop two Bayesian mixture models with the Dirichlet distribution prior and the Dirichlet process (DP) prior to improve the previous non-Bayesian mixture model developed for transaction dataset mining. We implement the inference of both mixture models using two methods: a collapsed Gibbs sampling scheme and a variational approximation algorithm. Experiments in several benchmark problems have shown that both mixture models achieve better performance than a non-Bayesian mixture model. The variational algorithm is the faster of the two approaches while the Gibbs sampling method achieves a more accurate results. The Dirichlet process mixture model can automatically grow to a proper complexity for a better approximation. Once the model is built, it can be very fast to query and run analysis on (typically 10 times faster than Eclat, as we will show in the experiment section). However, these approaches also show that mixture models underestimate the probabilities of frequent itemsets. Consequently, these models have a higher sensitivity but a lower specificity.

We develop a model of issue-specific voting behavior. This model can be used to explore lawmakers' personal voting patterns of voting by issue area, providing an exploratory window into how the language of the law is correlated with political support. We derive approximate posterior inference algorithms based on variational methods. Across 12 years of legislative data, we demonstrate both improvement in heldout prediction performance and the model's utility in interpreting an inherently multi-dimensional space.