Recently, Petrik et al. demonstrated that L1Regularized Approximate Linear Programming (RALP) could produce value functions and policies which compared favorably to established linear value function approximation techniques like LSPI. RALP's success primarily stems from the ability to solve the feature selection and value function approximation steps simultaneously. RALP's performance guarantees become looser if sampled next states are used. For very noisy domains, RALP requires an accurate model rather than samples, which can be unrealistic in some practical scenarios. In this paper, we demonstrate this weakness, and then introduce Locally Smoothed L1-Regularized Approximate Linear Programming (LS-RALP). We demonstrate that LS-RALP mitigates inaccuracies stemming from noise even without an accurate model. We show that, given some smoothness assumptions, as the number of samples increases, error from noise approaches zero, and provide experimental examples of LS-RALP's success on common reinforcement learning benchmark problems.

EDML is a recently proposed algorithm for learning MAP parameters in Bayesian networks. In this paper, we present a number of new advances and insights on the EDML algorithm. First, we provide the multivalued extension of EDML, originally proposed for Bayesian networks over binary variables. Next, we identify a simplified characterization of EDML that further implies a simple fixed-point algorithm for the convex optimization problem that underlies it. This characterization further reveals a connection between EDML and EM: a fixed point of EDML is a fixed point of EM, and vice versa. We thus identify also a new characterization of EM fixed points, but in the semantics of EDML. Finally, we propose a hybrid EDML/EM algorithm that takes advantage of the improved empirical convergence behavior of EDML, while maintaining the monotonic improvement property of EM.

Active Learning (AL) is increasingly important in a broad range of applications. Two main AL principles to obtain accurate classification with few labeled data are refinement of the current decision boundary and exploration of poorly sampled regions. In this paper we derive a novel AL scheme that balances these two principles in a natural way. In contrast to many AL strategies, which are based on an estimated class conditional probability ^p(y|x), a key component of our approach is to view this quantity as a random variable, hence explicitly considering the uncertainty in its estimated value. Our main contribution is a novel mathematical framework for uncertainty-based AL, and a corresponding AL scheme, where the uncertainty in ^p(y|x) is modeled by a second-order distribution. On the practical side, we show how to approximate such second-order distributions for kernel density classification. Finally, we find that over a large number of UCI, USPS and Caltech4 datasets, our AL scheme achieves significantly better learning curves than popular AL methods such as uncertainty sampling and error reduction sampling, when all use the same kernel density classifier.

Latent variable models are used to estimate variables of interest quantities which are observable only up to some measurement error. In many studies, such variables are known but not precisely quantifiable (such as "job satisfaction" in social sciences and marketing, "analytical ability" in educational testing, or "inflation" in economics). This leads to the development of measurement instruments to record noisy indirect evidence for such unobserved variables such as surveys, tests and price indexes. In such problems, there are postulated latent variables and a given measurement model. At the same time, other unantecipated latent variables can add further unmeasured confounding to the observed variables. The problem is how to deal with unantecipated latents variables. In this paper, we provide a method loosely inspired by canonical correlation that makes use of background information concerning the "known" latent variables. Given a partially specified structure, it provides a structure learning approach to detect "unknown unknowns," the confounding effect of potentially infinitely many other latent variables. This is done without explicitly modeling such extra latent factors. Because of the special structure of the problem, we are able to exploit a new variation of composite likelihood fitting to efficiently learn this structure. Validation is provided with experiments in synthetic data and the analysis of a large survey done with a sample of over 100,000 staff members of the National Health Service of the United Kingdom.

The recent proliferation of richly structured probabilistic models raises the question of how to automatically determine an appropriate model for a dataset. We investigate this question for a space of matrix decomposition models which can express a variety of widely used models from unsupervised learning. To enable model selection, we organize these models into a context-free grammar which generates a wide variety of structures through the compositional application of a few simple rules. We use our grammar to generically and efficiently infer latent components and estimate predictive likelihood for nearly 2500 structures using a small toolbox of reusable algorithms. Using a greedy search over our grammar, we automatically choose the decomposition structure from raw data by evaluating only a small fraction of all models. The proposed method typically finds the correct structure for synthetic data and backs off gracefully to simpler models under heavy noise. It learns sensible structures for datasets as diverse as image patches, motion capture, 20 Questions, and U.S. Senate votes, all using exactly the same code.

In this work, we propose the kernel Pitman-Yor process (KPYP) for nonparametric clustering of data with general spatial or temporal interdependencies. The KPYP is constructed by first introducing an infinite sequence of random locations. Then, based on the stick-breaking construction of the Pitman-Yor process, we define a predictor-dependent random probability measure by considering that the discount hyperparameters of the Beta-distributed random weights (stick variables) of the process are not uniform among the weights, but controlled by a kernel function expressing the proximity between the location assigned to each weight and the given predictors.

NICTA is Australia's Information and Communications Technology (ICT) Centre of Excellence. It is the largest organization in Australia dedicated to ICT research. While it has close links with local universities, it is in fact an independent but not-for-profit company in the business of doing research, commercializing that research and training PhD students to do that research. Much of the work taking place at NICTA involves various topics in artificial intelligence. In this article, we survey some of the AI work being undertaken at NICTA.

This paper proposes a technique for the unsupervised detection and tracking of arbitrary objects in videos. It is intended to reduce the need for detection and localization methods tailored to specific object types and serve as a general framework applicable to videos with varied objects, backgrounds, and image qualities. The technique uses a dependent Dirichlet process mixture (DDPM) known as the Generalized Polya Urn (GPUDDPM) to model image pixel data that can be easily and efficiently extracted from the regions in a video that represent objects. This paper describes a specific implementation of the model using spatial and color pixel data extracted via frame differencing and gives two algorithms for performing inference in the model to accomplish detection and tracking. This technique is demonstrated on multiple synthetic and benchmark video datasets that illustrate its ability to, without modification, detect and track objects with diverse physical characteristics moving over non-uniform backgrounds and through occlusion.

The problem of optimal planning under uncertainty in collaborative multi-agent domains is known to be deeply intractable but still demands a solution. This thesis will explore principled approximation methods that yield tractable approaches to planning for AI assistants, which allow them to understand the intentions of humans and help them achieve their goals. AI assistants are ubiquitous in video games, mak- ing them attractive domains for applying these planning techniques. However, games are also challenging domains, typically having very large state spaces and long planning horizons. The approaches in this thesis will leverage recent advances in Monte-Carlo search, approximation of stochastic dynamics by deterministic dynamics, and hierarchical action representation, to handle domains that are too complex for existing state of the art planners. These planning techniques will be demonstrated across a range of video game domains.

In this paper, we survey techniques used in intelligent tutoring systems (ITSs) to model student knowledge. The three techniques that we review in detail are knowledge tracing, performance factor analysis, and matrix factorization. We also briefly cover other techniques that have been used. This review is meant to be a repository of knowledge for those who want to integrate these techniques into serious games. It is also meant to increase awareness and interest as to the techniques available that can be integrated into serious games.