Defeasible argumentation frameworks have evolved to become a sound setting to formalize commonsense, qualitative reasoning from incomplete and potentially inconsistent knowledge. Defeasible Logic Programming (DeLP) is a defeasible argumentation formalism based on an extension of logic programming. Although DeLP has been successfully integrated in a number of different real-world applications, DeLP cannot deal with explicit uncertainty, nor with vague knowledge, as defeasibility is directly encoded in the object language. This paper introduces P-DeLP, a new logic programming language that extends original DeLP capabilities for qualitative reasoning by incorporating the treatment of possibilistic uncertainty and fuzzy knowledge. Such features will be formalized on the basis of PGL, a possibilistic logic based on Gödel fuzzy logic.

Early, reliable detection of disease outbreaks is a critical problem today. This paper reports an investigation of the use of causal Bayesian networks to model spatio-temporal patterns of a non-contagious disease (respiratory anthrax infection) in a population of people. The number of parameters in such a network can become enormous, if not carefully managed. Also, inference needs to be performed in real time as population data stream in. We describe techniques we have applied to address both the modeling and inference challenges. A key contribution of this paper is the explication of assumptions and techniques that are sufficient to allow the scaling of Bayesian network modeling and inference to millions of nodes for real-time surveillance applications. The results reported here provide a proof-of-concept that Bayesian networks can serve as the foundation of a system that effectively performs Bayesian biosurveillance of disease outbreaks.

This paper investigates a representation language with flexibility inspired by probabilistic logic and compactness inspired by relational Bayesian networks. The goal is to handle propositional and first-order constructs together with precise, imprecise, indeterminate and qualitative probabilistic assessments. The paper shows how this can be achieved through the theory of credal networks. New exact and approximate inference algorithms based on multilinear programming and iterated/loopy propagation of interval probabilities are presented; their superior performance, compared to existing ones, is shown empirically.

The representation of independence relations generally builds upon the well-known semigraphoid axioms of independence. Recently, a representation has been proposed that captures a set of dominant statements of an independence relation from which any other statement can be generated by means of the axioms; the cardinality of this set is taken to indicate the complexity of the relation. Building upon the idea of dominance, we introduce the concept of stability to provide for a more compact representation of independence. We give an associated algorithm for establishing such a representation. We show that, with our concept of stability, many independence relations are found to be of lower complexity than with existing representations.

The paper introduces mixed networks, a new framework for expressing and reasoning with probabilistic and deterministic information. The framework combines belief networks with constraint networks, defining the semantics and graphical representation. We also introduce the AND/OR search space for graphical models, and develop a new linear space search algorithm. This provides the basis for understanding the benefits of processing the constraint information separately, resulting in the pruning of the search space. When the constraint part is tractable or has a small number of solutions, using the mixed representation can be exponentially more effective than using pure belief networks which model constraints as conditional probability tables.

Sparse linear (or generalized linear) models combine a standard likelihood function with a sparse prior on the unknown coefficients. These priors can conveniently be expressed as a maximization over zero-mean Gaussians with different variance hyperparameters. Standard MAP estimation (Type I) involves maximizing over both the hyperparameters and coefficients, while an empirical Bayesian alternative (Type II) first marginalizes the coefficients and then maximizes over the hyperparameters, leading to a tractable posterior approximation. The underlying cost functions can be related via a dual-space framework from Wipf et al. (2011), which allows both the Type I or Type II objectives to be expressed in either coefficient or hyperparmeter space. This perspective is useful because some analyses or extensions are more conducive to development in one space or the other. Herein we consider the estimation of a trade-off parameter balancing sparsity and data fit. As this parameter is effectively a variance, natural estimators exist by assessing the problem in hyperparameter (variance) space, transitioning natural ideas from Type II to solve what is much less intuitive for Type I. In contrast, for analyses of update rules and sparsity properties of local and global solutions, as well as extensions to more general likelihood models, we can leverage coefficient-space techniques developed for Type I and apply them to Type II. For example, this allows us to prove that Type II-inspired techniques can be successful recovering sparse coefficients when unfavorable restricted isometry properties (RIP) lead to failure of popular L1 reconstructions. It also facilitates the analysis of Type II when non-Gaussian likelihood models lead to intractable integrations.

In many applications that require matrix solutions of minimal rank, the underlying cost function is non-convex leading to an intractable, NP-hard optimization problem. Consequently, the convex nuclear norm is frequently used as a surrogate penalty term for matrix rank. The problem is that in many practical scenarios there is no longer any guarantee that we can correctly estimate generative low-rank matrices of interest, theoretical special cases notwithstanding. Consequently, this paper proposes an alternative empirical Bayesian procedure build upon a variational approximation that, unlike the nuclear norm, retains the same globally minimizing point estimate as the rank function under many useful constraints. However, locally minimizing solutions are largely smoothed away via marginalization, allowing the algorithm to succeed when standard convex relaxations completely fail. While the proposed methodology is generally applicable to a wide range of low-rank applications, we focus our attention on the robust principal component analysis problem (RPCA), which involves estimating an unknown low-rank matrix with unknown sparse corruptions. Theoretical and empirical evidence are presented to show that our method is potentially superior to related MAP-based approaches, for which the convex principle component pursuit (PCP) algorithm (Candes et al., 2011) can be viewed as a special case.

This article describes different models based on Bayesian networks RB modeling expertise in the diagnosis of brain tumors. Indeed, they are well adapted to the representation of the uncertainty in the process of diagnosis of these tumors. In our work, we first tested several structures derived from the Bayesian network reasoning performed by doctors on the one hand and structures generated automatically on the other. This step aims to find the best structure that increases diagnostic accuracy. The machine learning algorithms relate MWST-EM algorithms, SEM and SEM + T. To estimate the parameters of the Bayesian network from a database incomplete, we have proposed an extension of the EM algorithm by adding a priori knowledge in the form of the thresholds calculated by the first phase of the algorithm RBE . The very encouraging results obtained are discussed at the end of the paper

Prediction markets are used in real life to predict outcomes of interest such as presidential elections. This paper presents a mathematical theory of artificial prediction markets for supervised learning of conditional probability estimators. The artificial prediction market is a novel method for fusing the prediction information of features or trained classifiers, where the fusion result is the contract price on the possible outcomes. The market can be trained online by updating the participants' budgets using training examples. Inspired by the real prediction markets, the equations that govern the market are derived from simple and reasonable assumptions. Efficient numerical algorithms are presented for solving these equations. The obtained artificial prediction market is shown to be a maximum likelihood estimator. It generalizes linear aggregation, existent in boosting and random forest, as well as logistic regression and some kernel methods. Furthermore, the market mechanism allows the aggregation of specialized classifiers that participate only on specific instances. Experimental comparisons show that the artificial prediction markets often outperform random forest and implicit online learning on synthetic data and real UCI datasets. Moreover, an extensive evaluation for pelvic and abdominal lymph node detection in CT data shows that the prediction market improves adaboost's detection rate from 79.6% to 81.2% at 3 false positives/volume.

We propose a hierarchy for approximate inference based on the Dobrushin, Lanford, Ruelle (DLR) equations. This hierarchy includes existing algorithms, such as belief propagation, and also motivates novel algorithms such as factorized neighbors (FN) algorithms and variants of mean field (MF) algorithms. In particular, we show that extrema of the Bethe free energy correspond to approximate solutions of the DLR equations. In addition, we demonstrate a close connection between these approximate algorithms and Gibbs sampling. Finally, we compare and contrast various of the algorithms in the DLR hierarchy on spin-glass problems. The experiments show that algorithms higher up in the hierarchy give more accurate results when they converge but tend to be less stable.