We develop a probabilistic model of legislative data that uses the text of the bills to uncover lawmakers' positions on specific political issues. Our model can be used to explore how a lawmaker's voting patterns deviate from what is expected and how that deviation depends on what is being voted on. We derive approximate posterior inference algorithms based on variational methods. Across 12 years of legislative data, we demonstrate both improvement in heldout predictive performance and the model's utility in interpreting an inherently multi-dimensional space.

Statistical learning and sequential prediction are two different but related formalisms to study the quality of predictions. Mapping out their relations and transferring ideas is an active area of investigation. We provide another piece of the puzzle by showing that an important concept in sequential prediction, the mixability of a loss, has a natural counterpart in the statistical setting, which we call stochastic mixability. Just as ordinary mixability characterizes fast rates for the worst-case regret in sequential prediction, stochastic mixability characterizes fast rates in statistical learning. We show that, in the special case of log-loss, stochastic mixability reduces to a well-known (but usually unnamed) martingale condition, which is used in existing convergence theorems for minimum description length and Bayesian inference. In the case of 0/1-loss, it reduces to the margin condition of Mammen and Tsybakov, and in the case that the model under consideration contains all possible predictors, it is equivalent to ordinary mixability.

A fundamental problem in the analysis of structured relational data like graphs, networks, databases, and matrices is to extract a summary of the common structure underlyingrelations between individual entities. Relational data are typically encoded in the form of arrays; invariance to the ordering of rows and columns corresponds to exchangeable arrays. Results in probability theory due to Aldous, Hoover and Kallenberg show that exchangeable arrays can be represented in terms of a random measurable function which constitutes the natural model parameter in a Bayesian model. We obtain a flexible yet simple Bayesian nonparametric model by placing a Gaussian process prior on the parameter function. Efficient inference utilises elliptical slice sampling combined with a random sparse approximation to the Gaussian process. We demonstrate applications of the model to network data and clarify its relation to models in the literature, several of which emerge as special cases.

In this paper, we argue for representing networks as a bag of {\it triangular motifs}, particularly for important network problems that current model-based approaches handle poorly due to computational bottlenecks incurred by using edge representations. Such approaches require both 1-edges and 0-edges (missing edges) to be provided as input, and as a consequence, approximate inference algorithms for these models usually require $\Omega(N^2)$ time per iteration, precluding their application to larger real-world networks. In contrast, triangular modeling requires less computation, while providing equivalent or better inference quality. A triangular motif is a vertex triple containing 2 or 3 edges, and the number of such motifs is $\Theta(\sum_{i}D_{i}^{2})$ (where $D_i$ is the degree of vertex $i$), which is much smaller than $N^2$ for low-maximum-degree networks. Using this representation, we develop a novel mixed-membership network model and approximate inference algorithm suitable for large networks with low max-degree. For networks with high maximum degree, the triangular motifs can be naturally subsampled in a {\it node-centric} fashion, allowing for much faster inference at a small cost in accuracy. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach, when compared to that of an edge-based model, has faster runtime and improved accuracy for mixed-membership community detection. We conclude with a large-scale demonstration on an $N\approx 280,000$-node network, which is infeasible for network models with $\Omega(N^2)$ inference cost.

We develop convergent minimization algorithms for Bethe variational approximations which explicitly constrain marginal estimates to families of valid distributions. While existing message passing algorithms define fixed point iterations corresponding to stationary points of the Bethe free energy, their greedy dynamics do not distinguish between local minima and maxima, and can fail to converge. For continuous estimation problems, this instability is linked to the creation of invalid marginal estimates, such as Gaussians with negative variance. Conversely, our approach leverages multiplier methods with well-understood convergence properties, and uses bound projection methods to ensure that marginal approximations are valid at all iterations. We derive general algorithms for discrete and Gaussian pairwise Markov random fields, showing improvements over standard loopy belief propagation. We also apply our method to a hybrid model with both discrete and continuous variables, showing improvements over expectation propagation.

An effective strategy to exploit the supervising side information for discovering predictive topic representations is to impose discriminative constraints induced by such information on the posterior distributions under a topic model. This strategy has been adopted by a number of supervised topic models, such as MedLDA, which employs max-margin posterior constraints. However, unlike the likelihood-based supervised topic models, of which posterior inference can be carried out using the Bayes' rule, the max-margin posterior constraints have made Monte Carlo methods infeasible or at least not directly applicable, thereby limited the choice of inference algorithms to be based on variational approximation with strict mean field assumptions. In this paper, we develop two efficient Monte Carlo methods under much weaker assumptions for max-margin supervised topic models based on an importance sampler and a collapsed Gibbs sampler, respectively, in a convex dual formulation. We report thorough experimental results that compare our approach favorably against existing alternatives in both accuracy and efficiency.

This paper shows how sparse, high-dimensional probability distributions could be represented by neurons with exponential compression. The representation is a novel application of compressive sensing to sparse probability distributions rather than to the usual sparse signals. The compressive measurements correspond to expected values of nonlinear functions of the probabilistically distributed variables. When these expected values are estimated by sampling, the quality of the compressed representation is limited only by the quality of sampling. Since the compression preserves the geometric structure of the space of sparse probability distributions, probabilistic computation can be performed in the compressed domain. Interestingly, functions satisfying the requirements of compressive sensing can be implemented as simple perceptrons. If we use perceptrons as a simple model of feedforward computation by neurons, these results show that the mean activity of a relatively small number of neurons can accurately represent a high-dimensional joint distribution implicitly, even without accounting for any noise correlations. This comprises a novel hypothesis for how neurons could encode probabilities in the brain.

Discrete mixtures are used routinely in broad sweeping applications ranging from unsupervised settings to fully supervised multi-task learning. Indeed, finite mixtures and infinite mixtures, relying on Dirichlet processes and modifications, have become a standard tool. One important issue that arises in using discrete mixtures is low separation in the components; in particular, different components can be introduced that are very similar and hence redundant. Such redundancy leads to too many clusters that are too similar, degrading performance in unsupervised learning and leading to computational problems and an unnecessarily complex model in supervised settings. Redundancy can arise in the absence of a penalty on components placed close together even when a Bayesian approach is used to learn the number of components. To solve this problem, we propose a novel prior that generates components from a repulsive process, automatically penalizing redundant components. We characterize this repulsive prior theoretically and propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm for posterior computation. The methods are illustrated using synthetic examples and an iris data set.

Reinforcement learning (RL) methods based on direct policy search (DPS) have been actively discussed to achieve an efficient approach to complicated Markov decision processes (MDPs). Although they have brought much progress in practical applications of RL, there still remains an unsolved problem in DPS related to model selection for the policy. In this paper, we propose a novel DPS method, {\it weighted likelihood policy search (WLPS)}, where a policy is efficiently learned through the weighted likelihood estimation. WLPS naturally connects DPS to the statistical inference problem and thus various sophisticated techniques in statistics can be applied to DPS problems directly. Hence, by following the idea of the {\it information criterion}, we develop a new measurement for model comparison in DPS based on the weighted log-likelihood.

We develop a novel Bayesian nonparametric model for random bipartite graphs. The model is based on the theory of completely random measures and is able to handle a potentially infinite number of nodes. We show that the model has appealing properties and in particular it may exhibit a power-law behavior. We derive a posterior characterization, an Indian Buffet-like generative process for network growth, and a simple and efficient Gibbs sampler for posterior simulation. Our model is shown to be well fitted to several real-world social networks.