We propose a new method of discovering causal structures, based on the detection of local, spontaneous changes in the underlying data-generating model. We analyze the classes of structures that are equivalent relative to a stream of distributions produced by local changes, and devise algorithms that output graphical representations of these equivalence classes. We present experimental results, using simulated data, and examine the errors associated with detection of changes and recovery of structures.

The search space of Bayesian Network structures is usually defined as Acyclic Directed Graphs (DAGs) and the search is done by local transformations of DAGs. But the space of Bayesian Networks is ordered by DAG Markov model inclusion and it is natural to consider that a good search policy should take this into account. First attempt to do this (Chickering 1996) was using equivalence classes of DAGs instead of DAGs itself. This approach produces better results but it is significantly slower. We present a compromise between these two approaches. It uses DAGs to search the space in such a way that the ordering by inclusion is taken into account. This is achieved by repetitive usage of local moves within the equivalence class of DAGs. We show that this new approach produces better results than the original DAGs approach without substantial change in time complexity. We present empirical results, within the framework of heuristic search and Markov Chain Monte Carlo, provided through the Alarm dataset.

It is often stated in papers tackling the task of inferring Bayesian network structures from data that there are these two distinct approaches: (i) Apply conditional independence tests when testing for the presence or otherwise of edges; (ii) Search the model space using a scoring metric. Here I argue that for complete data and a given node ordering this division is a myth, by showing that cross entropy methods for checking conditional independence are mathematically identical to methods based upon discriminating between models by their overall goodness-of-fit logarithmic scores.

Global variational approximation methods in graphical models allow efficient approximate inference of complex posterior distributions by using a simpler model. The choice of the approximating model determines a tradeoff between the complexity of the approximation procedure and the quality of the approximation. In this paper, we consider variational approximations based on two classes of models that are richer than standard Bayesian networks, Markov networks or mixture models. As such, these classes allow to find better tradeoffs in the spectrum of approximations. The first class of models are chain graphs, which capture distributions that are partially directed. The second class of models are directed graphs (Bayesian networks) with additional latent variables. Both classes allow representation of multi-variable dependencies that cannot be easily represented within a Bayesian network.

In this work we propose a heteroscedastic generalization to RVM, a fast Bayesian framework for regression, based on some recent similar works. We use variational approximation and expectation propagation to tackle the problem. The work is still under progress and we are examining the results and comparing with the previous works.

We present a new algorithm for approximate inference in probabilistic programs, based on a stochastic gradient for variational programs. This method is efficient without restrictions on the probabilistic program; it is particularly practical for distributions which are not analytically tractable, including highly structured distributions that arise in probabilistic programs. We show how to automatically derive mean-field probabilistic programs and optimize them, and demonstrate that our perspective improves inference efficiency over other algorithms.

Role mining tackles the problem of finding a role-based access control (RBAC) configuration, given an access-control matrix assigning users to access permissions as input. Most role mining approaches work by constructing a large set of candidate roles and use a greedy selection strategy to iteratively pick a small subset such that the differences between the resulting RBAC configuration and the access control matrix are minimized. In this paper, we advocate an alternative approach that recasts role mining as an inference problem rather than a lossy compression problem. Instead of using combinatorial algorithms to minimize the number of roles needed to represent the access-control matrix, we derive probabilistic models to learn the RBAC configuration that most likely underlies the given matrix. Our models are generative in that they reflect the way that permissions are assigned to users in a given RBAC configuration. We additionally model how user-permission assignments that conflict with an RBAC configuration emerge and we investigate the influence of constraints on role hierarchies and on the number of assignments. In experiments with access-control matrices from real-world enterprises, we compare our proposed models with other role mining methods. Our results show that our probabilistic models infer roles that generalize well to new system users for a wide variety of data, while other models' generalization abilities depend on the dataset given.

In this paper Knowledge Discovery System (KDS) is proposed and implemented for the extraction of knowledge-mean stiffness of a polymer composite material in which when fibers are placed at different orientations. Cosine amplitude method is implemented for retrieving compatible polymer matrix and reinforcement fiber which is coming under predicted fiber class, from the polymer and reinforcement database respectively, based on the design requirements. Fuzzy classification rules to classify fibers into short, medium and long fiber classes are derived based on the fiber length and the computed or derive critical length of fiber. Longitudinal and Transverse module of Polymer Matrix Composite consisting of seven layers with different fiber volume fractions and different fibers orientations at 0,15,30,45,60,75 and 90 degrees are analyzed through Rule-of Mixture material design model. The analysis results are represented in different graphical steps and have been measured with statistical parameters. This data mining application implemented here has focused the mechanical problems of material design and analysis. Therefore, this system is an expert decision support system for optimizing the materials performance for designing light-weight and strong, and cost effective polymer composite materials.

Decision making is a key feature of autonomous systems. The physical context often includes other interacting autonomous systems, typically called agents. In this article, I focus on decision making in a multiagent context with partial information about the problem. I put the two frameworks, decentralized partially observable Markov decision process (Dec-POMDP) and the interactive partially observable Markov decision process (I-POMDP), in context and review the foundational algorithms for these frameworks, while briefly discussing the advances in their specializations.

A special case that has received significant attention is the Plackett-Luce model, for which fast inference methods for maximum likelihood estimators are available. This paper develops conditions on general random utility models that enable fast inference within a Bayesian framework through MC-EM, providing concave loglikelihood functions and bounded sets of global maxima solutions. Results on both real-world and simulated data provide support for the scalability of the approach and capability for model selection among general random utility models including Plackett-Luce.