Jeffrey's rule of conditioning has been proposed in order to revise a probability measure by another probability function. We generalize it within the framework of the models based on belief functions. We show that several forms of Jeffrey's conditionings can be defined that correspond to the geometrical rule of conditioning and to Dempster's rule of conditioning, respectively.

Shafer's theory of belief and the Bayesian theory of probability are two alternative and mutually inconsistent approaches toward modelling uncertainty in artificial intelligence. To help reduce the conflict between these two approaches, this paper reexamines expected utility theory-from which Bayesian probability theory is derived. Expected utility theory requires the decision maker to assign a utility to each decision conditioned on every possible event that might occur. But frequently the decision maker cannot foresee all the events that might occur, i.e., one of the possible events is the occurrence of an unforeseen event. So once we acknowledge the existence of unforeseen events, we need to develop some way of assigning utilities to decisions conditioned on unforeseen events. The commonsensical solution to this problem is to assign similar utilities to events which are similar. Implementing this commonsensical solution is equivalent to replacing Bayesian subjective probabilities over the space of foreseen and unforeseen events by random set theory probabilities over the space of foreseen events. This leads to an expected utility principle in which normalized variants of Shafer's commonalities play the role of subjective probabilities. Hence allowing for unforeseen events in decision analysis causes Bayesian probability theory to become much more similar to Shaferian theory.

We have developed a general Bayesian algorithm for determining the coordinates of points in a three-dimensional space. The algorithm takes as input a set of probabilistic constraints on the coordinates of the points, and an a priori distribution for each point location. The output is a maximum-likelihood estimate of the location of each point. We use the extended, iterated Kalman filter, and add a search heuristic for optimizing its solution under nonlinear conditions. This heuristic is based on the same principle as the simulated annealing heuristic for other optimization problems. Our method uses any probabilistic constraints that can be expressed as a function of the point coordinates (for example, distance, angles, dihedral angles, and planarity). It assumes that all constraints have Gaussian noise. In this paper, we describe the algorithm and show its performance on a set of synthetic data to illustrate its convergence properties, and its applicability to domains such ng molecular structure determination.

We present a semantics for adding uncertainty to conditional logics for default reasoning and belief revision. We are able to treat conditional sentences as statements of conditional probability, and express rules for revision such as "If A were believed, then B would be believed to degree p." This method of revision extends conditionalization by allowing meaningful revision by sentences whose probability is zero. This is achieved through the use of counterfactual probabilities. Thus, our system accounts for the best properties of qualitative methods of update (in particular, the AGM theory of revision) and probabilistic methods. We also show how our system can be viewed as a unification of probability theory and possibility theory, highlighting their orthogonality and providing a means for expressing the probability of a possibility. We also demonstrate the connection to Lewis's method of imaging.

This paper discusses how conflicts (as used by the consistency-based diagnosis community) can be adapted to be used in a search-based algorithm for computing prior and posterior probabilities in discrete Bayesian Networks. This is an "anytime" algorithm, that at any stage can estimate the probabilities and give an error bound. Whereas the most popular Bayesian net algorithms exploit the structure of the network for efficiency, we exploit probability distributions for efficiency; this algorithm is most suited to the case with extreme probabilities. This paper presents a solution to the inefficiencies found in naive algorithms, and shows how the tools of the consistency-based diagnosis community (namely conflicts) can be used effectively to improve the efficiency. Empirical results with networks having tens of thousands of nodes are presented.

PAGODA (Probabilistic Autonomous Goal-Directed Agent) is a model for autonomous learning in probabilistic domains [desJardins, 1992] that incorporates innovative techniques for using the agent's existing knowledge to guide and constrain the learning process and for representing, reasoning with, and learning probabilistic knowledge. This paper describes the probabilistic representation and inference mechanism used in PAGODA. PAGODA forms theories about the effects of its actions and the world state on the environment over time. These theories are represented as conditional probability distributions. A restriction is imposed on the structure of the theories that allows the inference mechanism to find a unique predicted distribution for any action and world state description. These restricted theories are called uniquely predictive theories. The inference mechanism, Probability Combination using Independence (PCI), uses minimal independence assumptions to combine the probabilities in a theory to make probabilistic predictions.

This paper addresses the tradeoffs which need to be considered in reasoning using probabilistic network representations, such as Influence Diagrams (IDs). In particular, we examine the tradeoffs entailed in using Temporal Influence Diagrams (TIDs) which adequately capture the temporal evolution of a dynamic system without prohibitive data and computational requirements. Three approaches for TID construction which make different tradeoffs are examined: (1) tailoring the network at each time interval to the data available (rather then just copying the original Bayes Network for all time intervals); (2) modeling the evolution of a parsimonious subset of variables (rather than all variables); and (3) model selection approaches, which seek to minimize some measure of the predictive accuracy of the model without introducing too many parameters, which might cause "overfitting" of the model. Methods of evaluating the accuracy/efficiency of the tradeoffs are proposed.

In order to find a causal explanation for data presented in the form of covariance and concentration matrices it is necessary to decide if the graph formed by such associations is a projection of a directed acyclic graph (dag). We show that the general problem of deciding whether such a dag exists is NP-complete.

Intercausal reasoning is a common inference pattern involving probabilistic dependence of causes of an observed common effect. The sign of this dependence is captured by a qualitative property called product synergy. The current definition of product synergy is insufficient for intercausal reasoning where there are additional uninstantiated causes of the common effect. We propose a new definition of product synergy and prove its adequacy for intercausal reasoning with direct and indirect evidence for the common effect. The new definition is based on a new property matrix half positive semi-definiteness, a weakened form of matrix positive semi-definiteness.

Argumentation is the process of constructing arguments about propositions, and the assignment of statements of confidence to those propositions based on the nature and relative strength of their supporting arguments. The process is modelled as a labelled deductive system, in which propositions are doubly labelled with the grounds on which they are based and a representation of the confidence attached to the argument. Argument construction is captured by a generalized argument consequence relation based on the ^,--fragment of minimal logic. Arguments can be aggregated by a variety of numeric and symbolic flattening functions. This approach appears to shed light on the common logical structure of a variety of quantitative, qualitative and defeasible uncertainty calculi.