This paper proposes a new method for solving Bayesian decision problems. The method consists of representing a Bayesian decision problem as a valuation-based system and applying a fusion algorithm for solving it. The fusion algorithm is a hybrid of local computational methods for computation of marginals of joint probability distributions and the local computational methods for discrete optimization problems.

The graphoid axioms for conditional independence, originally described by Dawid [1979], are fundamental to probabilistic reasoning [Pearl, 19881. Such axioms provide a mechanism for manipulating conditional independence assertions without resorting to their numerical definition. This paper explores a representation for independence statements using multiple undirected graphs and some simple graphical transformations. The independence statements derivable in this system are equivalent to those obtainable by the graphoid axioms. Therefore, this is a purely graphical proof technique for conditional independence.

In this article we present two ways of structuring bodies of evidence, which allow us to reduce the complexity of the operations usually performed in the framework of evidence theory. The first structure just partitions the focal elements in a body of evidence by their cardinality. With this structure we are able to reduce the complexity on the calculation of the belief functions Bel, Pl, and Q. The other structure proposed here, the Hierarchical Trees, permits us to reduce the complexity of the calculation of Bel, Pl, and Q, as well as of the Dempster's rule of combination in relation to the brute-force algorithm. Both these structures do not require the generation of all the subsets of the reference domain.

We present PULCinella and its use in comparing uncertainty theories. PULCinella is a general tool for Propagating Uncertainty based on the Local Computation technique of Shafer and Shenoy. It may be specialized to different uncertainty theories: at the moment, Pulcinella can propagate probabilities, belief functions, Boolean values, and possibilities. Moreover, Pulcinella allows the user to easily define his own specializations. To illustrate Pulcinella, we analyze two examples by using each of the four theories above. In the first one, we mainly focus on intrinsic differences between theories. In the second one, we take a knowledge engineer viewpoint, and check the adequacy of each theory to a given problem.

This paper introduces conceptual relations that synthesize utilitarian and logical concepts, extending the logics of preference of Rescher. We define first, in the context of a possible worlds model, constraint-dependent measures that quantify the relative quality of alternative solutions of reasoning problems or the relative desirability of various policies in control, decision, and planning problems. We show that these measures may be interpreted as truth values in a multi valued logic and propose mechanisms for the representation of complex constraints as combinations of simpler restrictions. These extended logical operations permit also the combination and aggregation of goal-specific quality measures into global measures of utility. We identify also relations that represent differential preferences between alternative solutions and relate them to the previously defined desirability measures. Extending conventional modal logic formulations, we introduce structures for the representation of ignorance about the utility of alternative solutions. Finally, we examine relations between these concepts and similarity based semantic models of fuzzy logic.

During interactions with human consultants, people are used to providing partial and/or inaccurate information, and still be understood and assisted. We attempt to emulate this capability of human consultants; in computer consultation systems. In this paper, we present a mechanism for handling uncertainty in plan recognition during task-oriented consultations. The uncertainty arises while choosing an appropriate interpretation of a user?s statements among many possible interpretations. Our mechanism handles this uncertainty by using probability theory to assess the probabilities of the interpretations, and complements this assessment by taking into account the information content of the interpretations. The information content of an interpretation is a measure of how well defined an interpretation is in terms of the actions to be performed on the basis of the interpretation. This measure is used to guide the inference process towards interpretations with a higher information content. The information content for an interpretation depends on the specificity and the strength of the inferences in it, where the strength of an inference depends on the reliability of the information on which the inference is based. Our mechanism has been developed for use in task-oriented consultation systems. The domain that we have chosen for exploration is that of a travel agency.

A new probabilistic network construction system, DYNASTY, is proposed for diagnostic reasoning given variables whose probabilities change over time. Diagnostic reasoning is formulated as a sequential stochastic process, and is modeled using influence diagrams. Given a set O of observations, DYNASTY creates an influence diagram in order to devise the best action given O. Sensitivity analyses are conducted to determine if the best network has been created, given the uncertainty in network parameters and topology. DYNASTY uses an equivalence class approach to provide decision thresholds for the sensitivity analysis. This equivalence-class approach to diagnostic reasoning differentiates diagnoses only if the required actions are different. A set of network-topology updating algorithms are proposed for dynamically updating the network when necessary.

This paper presents a simple framework for Horn clause abduction, with probabilities associated with hypotheses. It is shown how this representation can represent any probabilistic knowledge representable in a Bayesian belief network. The main contributions are in finding a relationship between logical and probabilistic notions of evidential reasoning. This can be used as a basis for a new way to implement Bayesian Networks that allows for approximations to the value of the posterior probabilities, and also points to a way that Bayesian networks can be extended beyond a propositional language.

The EMalgorithm is a general procedure to get maximum likelihood estimates if part of the observations on the variables of a network are missing. In this paper a stochastic version of the algorithm is adapted to probabilistic neural networks describing the associative dependency of variables. These networks have a probability distribution, which is a special case of the distribution generated by probabilistic inference networks. Hence both types of networks can be combined allowing to integrate probabilistic rules as well as unspecified associations in a sound way. The resulting network may have a number of interesting features including cycles of probabilistic rules, hidden'unobservable' variables, and uncertain and contradictory evidence. IN TRODUCTION Probabilistic inference networks (Pearl 1988) have been used to model uncertain causal relations between variables, for instance in a diagnostic system.

We present a general architecture for the monitoring and diagnosis of large scale sensor-based systems with real time diagnostic constraints. This architecture is multileveled, combining a single monitoring level based on statistical methods with two model based diagnostic levels. At each level, sources of uncertainty are identified, and integrated methodologies for uncertainty management are developed. The general architecture was applied to the monitoring and diagnosis of a specific nuclear physics detector at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory that contained approximately 5000 components and produced over 500 channels of output data. The general architecture is scalable, and work is ongoing to apply it to detector systems one and two orders of magnitude more complex.