A major difficulty in developing and maintaining very large knowledge bases originates from the variety of forms in which knowledge is made available to the KB builder. The objective of this research is to bring together two complementary knowledge representation schemes: term subsumption languages, which represent and reason about defining characteristics of concepts, and proximate reasoning models, which deal with uncertain knowledge and data in expert systems. Previous works in this area have primarily focused on probabilistic inheritance. In this paper, we address two other important issues regarding the integration of term subsumption-based systems and approximate reasoning models. First, we outline a general architecture that specifies the interactions between the deductive reasoner of a term subsumption system and an approximate reasoner. Second, we generalize the semantics of terminological language so that terminological knowledge can be used to make plausible inferences. The architecture, combined with the generalized semantics, forms the foundation of a synergistic tight integration of term subsumption systems and approximate reasoning models.

This paper describes the incorporation of uncertainty in diagnostic reasoning based on the set covering model of Reggia et. al. extended to what in the Artificial Intelligence dichotomy between deep and compiled (shallow, surface) knowledge based diagnosis may be viewed as the generic form at the compiled end of the spectrum. A major undercurrent in this is advocating the need for a strong underlying model and an integrated set of support tools for carrying such a model in order to deal with uncertainty.

An experiment replicated and extended recent findings on psychologically realistic ways of modeling propagation of uncertainty in rule based reasoning. Within a single production rule, the antecedent evidence can be summarized by taking the maximum of disjunctively connected antecedents and the minimum of conjunctively connected antecedents. The maximum certainty factor attached to each of the rule's conclusions can be sealed down by multiplication with this summarized antecedent certainty. Heckerman's modified certainty factor technique can be used to combine certainties for common conclusions across production rules.

The form and justification of inductive inference rules depend strongly on the representation of uncertainty. This paper examines one generic representation, namely, incomplete information. The notion can be formalized by presuming that the relevant probabilities in a decision problem are known only to the extent that they belong to a class K of probability distributions. The concept is a generalization of a frequent suggestion that uncertainty be represented by intervals or ranges on probabilities. To make the representation useful for decision making, an inductive rule can be formulated which determines, in a well-defined manner, a best approximation to the unknown probability, given the set K. In addition, the knowledge set notion entails a natural procedure for updating -- modifying the set K given new evidence. Several non-intuitive consequences of updating emphasize the differences between inference with complete and inference with incomplete information.

We start by defining an approach to non-monotonic probabilistic reasoning in terms of non-monotonic categorical (true-false) reasoning. We identify a type of non-monotonic probabilistic reasoning, akin to default inheritance, that is commonly found in practice, especially in "evidential" and "Bayesian" reasoning. We formulate this in terms of the Maximization of Conditional Independence (MCI), and identify a variety of applications for this sort of default. We propose a formalization using Pointwise Circumscription. We compare MCI to Maximum Entropy, another kind of non-monotonic principle, and conclude by raising a number of open questions

Cutset conditioning and clique-tree propagation are two popular methods for performing exact probabilistic inference in Bayesian belief networks. Cutset conditioning is based on decomposition of a subset of network nodes, whereas clique-tree propagation depends on aggregation of nodes. We describe a means to combine cutset conditioning and clique- tree propagation in an approach called aggregation after decomposition (AD). We discuss the application of the AD method in the Pathfinder system, a medical expert system that offers assistance with diagnosis in hematopathology.

We formulate Dempster Shafer Belief functions in terms of Propositional Logic using the implicit notion of provability underlying Dempster Shafer Theory. Given a set of propositional clauses, assigning weights to certain propositional literals enables the Belief functions to be explicitly computed using Network Reliability techniques. Also, the logical procedure corresponding to updating Belief functions using Dempster's Rule of Combination is shown. This analysis formalizes the implementation of Belief functions within an Assumption-based Truth Maintenance System (ATMS). We describe the extension of an ATMS-based visual recognition system, VICTORS, with this logical formulation of Dempster Shafer theory. Without Dempster Shafer theory, VICTORS computes all possible visual interpretations (i.e. all logical models) without determining the best interpretation(s). Incorporating Dempster Shafer theory enables optimal visual interpretations to be computed and a logical semantics to be maintained.

Two different approaches to dealing with probabilistic knowledge are examined -models and inductive inference. Examples of the first are: influence diagrams [1], Bayesian networks [2], log-linear models [3, 4]. Examples of the second are: games-against nature [5, 6] varieties of maximum-entropy methods [7, 8, 9], and the author's min-score induction [10]. In the modeling approach, the basic issue is manageability, with respect to data elicitation and computation. Thus, it is assumed that the pertinent set of users in some sense knows the relevant probabilities, and the problem is to format that knowledge in a way that is convenient to input and store and that allows computation of the answers to current questions in an expeditious fashion. The basic issue for the inductive approach appears at first sight to be very different. In this approach it is presumed that the relevant probabilities are only partially known, and the problem is to extend that incomplete information in a reasonable way to answer current questions. Clearly, this approach requires that some form of induction be invoked. Of course, manageability is an important additional concern. Despite their seeming differences, the two approaches have a fair amount in common, especially with respect to the structural framework they employ. Roughly speaking, this framework involves identifying clusters of variables which strongly interact, establishing marginal probability distributions on the clusters, and extending the subdistributions to a more complete distribution, usually via a product formalism. The product extension is justified on the modeling approach in terms of assumed conditional independence; in the inductive approach the product form arises from an inductive rule.

In this paper we explore representations of temporal knowledge based upon the formalism of Causal Probabilistic Networks (CPNs). Two different ?continuous-time? representations are proposed. In the first, the CPN includes variables representing ?event-occurrence times?, possibly on different time scales, and variables representing the ?state? of the system at these times. In the second, the CPN describes the influences between random variables with values in () representing dates, i.e. time-points associated with the occurrence of relevant events. However, structuring a system of inter-related dates as a network where all links commit to a single specific notion of cause and effect is in general far from trivial and leads to severe difficulties. We claim that we should recognize explicitly different kinds of relation between dates, such as ?cause?, ?inhibition?, ?competition?, etc., and propose a method whereby these relations are coherently embedded in a CPN using additional auxiliary nodes corresponding to "instrumental" variables. Also discussed, though not covered in detail, is the topic concerning how the quantitative specifications to be inserted in a temporal CPN can be learned from specific data.

We discuss the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence. We introduce a concept of monotonicity which is related to the diminution of the range between belief and plausibility. We show that the accumulation of knowledge in this framework exhibits a nonmonotonic property. We show how the belief structure can be used to represent typical or commonsense knowledge.