Probabilistic programming allows specification of probabilistic models in a declarative manner. Recently, several new software systems and languages for probabilistic programming have been developed on the basis of newly developed and improved methods for approximate inference in probabilistic models. In this contribution a probabilistic model for an idealized dark matter localization problem is described. We first derive the probabilistic model for the inference of dark matter locations and masses, and then show how this model can be implemented using BUGS and Infer.NET, two software systems for probabilistic programming. Finally, the different capabilities of both systems are discussed. The presented dark matter model includes mainly non-conjugate factors, thus, it is difficult to implement this model with Infer.NET.

The accurate prediction of time-changing covariances is an important problem in the modeling of multivariate financial data. However, some of the most popular models suffer from a) overfitting problems and multiple local optima, b) failure to capture shifts in market conditions and c) large computational costs. To address these problems we introduce a novel dynamic model for time-changing covariances. Over-fitting and local optima are avoided by following a Bayesian approach instead of computing point estimates. Changes in market conditions are captured by assuming a diffusion process in parameter values, and finally computationally efficient and scalable inference is performed using particle filters. Experiments with financial data show excellent performance of the proposed method with respect to current standard models.

Major advances in Question Answering technology were needed for IBM Watson to play Jeopardy! at championship level -- the show requires rapid-fire answers to challenging natural language questions, broad general knowledge, high precision, and accurate confidence estimates. In addition, Jeopardy! features four types of decision making carrying great strategic importance: (1) Daily Double wagering; (2) Final Jeopardy wagering; (3) selecting the next square when in control of the board; (4) deciding whether to attempt to answer, i.e., "buzz in." Using sophisticated strategies for these decisions, that properly account for the game state and future event probabilities, can significantly boost a player's overall chances to win, when compared with simple "rule of thumb" strategies. This article presents our approach to developing Watson's game-playing strategies, comprising development of a faithful simulation model, and then using learning and Monte-Carlo methods within the simulator to optimize Watson's strategic decision-making. After giving a detailed description of each of our game-strategy algorithms, we then focus in particular on validating the accuracy of the simulator's predictions, and documenting performance improvements using our methods. Quantitative performance benefits are shown with respect to both simple heuristic strategies, and actual human contestant performance in historical episodes. We further extend our analysis of human play to derive a number of valuable and counterintuitive examples illustrating how human contestants may improve their performance on the show.

In data analysis, latent variables play a central role because they help provide powerful insights into a wide variety of phenomena, ranging from biological to human sciences. The latent tree model, a particular type of probabilistic graphical models, deserves attention. Its simple structure - a tree - allows simple and efficient inference, while its latent variables capture complex relationships. In the past decade, the latent tree model has been subject to significant theoretical and methodological developments. In this review, we propose a comprehensive study of this model. First we summarize key ideas underlying the model. Second we explain how it can be efficiently learned from data. Third we illustrate its use within three types of applications: latent structure discovery, multidimensional clustering, and probabilistic inference. Finally, we conclude and give promising directions for future researches in this field.

In this paper is proposed a new heuristic approach belonging to the field of evolutionary Estimation of Distribution Algorithms (EDAs). EDAs builds a probability model and a set of solutions is sampled from the model which characterizes the distribution of such solutions. The main framework of the proposed method is an estimation of distribution algorithm, in which an adaptive Gibbs sampling is used to generate new promising solutions and, in combination with a local search strategy, it improves the individual solutions produced in each iteration. The Estimation of Distribution Algorithm with Adaptive Gibbs Sampling we are proposing in this paper is called AGEDA. We experimentally evaluate and compare this algorithm against two deterministic procedures and several stochastic methods in three well known test problems for unconstrained global optimization. It is empirically shown that our heuristic is robust in problems that involve three central aspects that mainly determine the difficulty of global optimization problems, namely high-dimensionality, multi-modality and non-smoothness.

We propose a reinforcement learning solution to the \emph{soccer dribbling task}, a scenario in which a soccer agent has to go from the beginning to the end of a region keeping possession of the ball, as an adversary attempts to gain possession. While the adversary uses a stationary policy, the dribbler learns the best action to take at each decision point. After defining meaningful variables to represent the state space, and high-level macro-actions to incorporate domain knowledge, we describe our application of the reinforcement learning algorithm \emph{Sarsa} with CMAC for function approximation. Our experiments show that, after the training period, the dribbler is able to accomplish its task against a strong adversary around 58% of the time.

We generalize the stochastic block model to the important case in which edges are annotated with weights drawn from an exponential family distribution. This generalization introduces several technical difficulties for model estimation, which we solve using a Bayesian approach. We introduce a variational algorithm that efficiently approximates the model's posterior distribution for dense graphs. In specific numerical experiments on edge-weighted networks, this weighted stochastic block model outperforms the common approach of first applying a single threshold to all weights and then applying the classic stochastic block model, which can obscure latent block structure in networks. This model will enable the recovery of latent structure in a broader range of network data than was previously possible.

It is widely recognized that incorporating latent or hidden variables is a crucial aspect of modeling. Latent variables can provide a succinct representation of the observed data through dimensionality reduction; the possibly many observed variables are summarized by fewer hidden effects. Further, they are central to predicting causal relationships and interpreting the hidden effects as unobservable concepts. For instance in sociology, human behavior is affected by abstract notions such as social attitudes, beliefs, goals and plans. As another example, medical knowledge is organized into casual hierarchies of invading organisms, physical disorders, pathological states and symptoms, and only the symptoms are observed. In addition to incorporating latent variables, it is also important to model the complex dependencies among the variables. A popular class of models for incorporating such dependencies are the Bayesian networks, also known as belief networks. They incorporate a set of causal and conditional independence relationships through directed acyclic graphs (DAG) [49]. They have widespread applicability in artificial intelligence [19, 25, 41, 42], in the social sciences [13, 18, 40, 50, 51, 64], and as structural equation models in economics [12, 18, 33, 51, 60, 65].

Hugo Larochelle D epartment d'Informatique Universit e de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke (QC), Canada, J1K 2R1 hugo.larochelle@usherbrooke.ca March 22, 2018 Abstract Topic modeling based on latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) has been a framework of choice to perform scene recognition and annotation. Recently, a new type of topic model called the Document Neural Autoregressive Distribution Estimator (DocNADE) was proposed and demonstrated state-of-the-art performance for document modeling. In this work, we show how to successfully apply and extend this model to the context of visual scene modeling. Specifically, we propose SupDocNADE, a supervised extension of DocNADE, that increases the discriminative power of the hidden topic features by incorporating label information into the training objective of the model. We also describe how to leverage information about the spatial position of the visual words and how to embed additional image annotations, so as to simultaneously perform image classification and annotation. We test our model on the Scene15, LabelMe and UIUC-Sports datasets and show that it compares favorably to other topic models such as the supervised variant of LDA. 1 Introduction Image classification and annotation are two important tasks in computer vision. In image classification, one tries to describe the image globally with a single descriptive label (such as coast, outdoor, inside city, etc.), while annotation focuses on tagging the local content within the image (such as whether it contains "sky", a "car ", a "tree ", etc.). Since these two problems are related, it is natural to attempt to solve them jointly. For example, an image labeled asstreet is more likely to be annotated with " car ", "pedestrian " or "building" than with "beach " or "see water ".

Collective classification has been intensively studied due to its impact in many important applications, such as web mining, bioinformatics and citation analysis. Collective classification approaches exploit the dependencies of a group of linked objects whose class labels are correlated and need to be predicted simultaneously. In this paper, we focus on studying the collective classification problem in heterogeneous networks, which involves multiple types of data objects interconnected by multiple types of links. Intuitively, two objects are correlated if they are linked by many paths in the network. However, most existing approaches measure the dependencies among objects through directly links or indirect links without considering the different semantic meanings behind different paths. In this paper, we study the collective classification problem taht is defined among the same type of objects in heterogenous networks. Moreover, by considering different linkage paths in the network, one can capture the subtlety of different types of dependencies among objects. We introduce the concept of meta-path based dependencies among objects, where a meta path is a path consisting a certain sequence of linke types. We show that the quality of collective classification results strongly depends upon the meta paths used. To accommodate the large network size, a novel solution, called HCC (meta-path based Heterogenous Collective Classification), is developed to effectively assign labels to a group of instances that are interconnected through different meta-paths. The proposed HCC model can capture different types of dependencies among objects with respect to different meta paths. Empirical studies on real-world networks demonstrate that effectiveness of the proposed meta path-based collective classification approach.