We propose a family of multivariate Gaussian process models for correlated outputs, based on assuming that the likelihood function takes the generic form of the multivariate exponential family distribution (EFD). We denote this model as a multivariate generalized Gaussian process model, and derive Taylor and Laplace algorithms for approximate inference on the generic model. By instantiating the EFD with specific parameter functions, we obtain two novel GP models (and corresponding inference algorithms) for correlated outputs: 1) a Von-Mises GP for angle regression; and 2) a Dirichlet GP for regressing on the multinomial simplex.

A family of parsimonious shifted asymmetric Laplace mixture models is introduced. We extend the mixture of factor analyzers model to the shifted asymmetric Laplace distribution. Imposing constraints on the constitute parts of the resulting decomposed component scale matrices leads to a family of parsimonious models. An explicit two-stage parameter estimation procedure is described, and the Bayesian information criterion and the integrated completed likelihood are compared for model selection. This novel family of models is applied to real data, where it is compared to its Gaussian analogue within clustering and classification paradigms.

This paper studies iteration convergence of Kronecker graphical lasso (KGLasso) algorithms for estimating the covariance of an i.i.d. Gaussian random sample under a sparse Kronecker-product covariance model and MSE convergence rates. The KGlasso model, originally called the transposable regularized covariance model by Allen ["Transposable regularized covariance models with an application to missing data imputation," Ann. Appl. Statist., vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 764-790, 2010], implements a pair of $\ell_1$ penalties on each Kronecker factor to enforce sparsity in the covariance estimator. The KGlasso algorithm generalizes Glasso, introduced by Yuan and Lin ["Model selection and estimation in the Gaussian graphical model," Biometrika, vol. 94, pp. 19-35, 2007] and Banerjee ["Model selection through sparse maximum likelihood estimation for multivariate Gaussian or binary data," J. Mach. Learn. Res., vol. 9, pp. 485-516, Mar. 2008], to estimate covariances having Kronecker product form. It also generalizes the unpenalized ML flip-flop (FF) algorithm of Dutilleul ["The MLE algorithm for the matrix normal distribution," J. Statist. Comput. Simul., vol. 64, pp. 105-123, 1999] and Werner ["On estimation of covariance matrices with Kronecker product structure," IEEE Trans. Signal Process., vol. 56, no. 2, pp. 478-491, Feb. 2008] to estimation of sparse Kronecker factors. We establish that the KGlasso iterates converge pointwise to a local maximum of the penalized likelihood function. We derive high dimensional rates of convergence to the true covariance as both the number of samples and the number of variables go to infinity. Our results establish that KGlasso has significantly faster asymptotic convergence than Glasso and FF. Simulations are presented that validate the results of our analysis.

The fundamental aim of clustering algorithms is to partition data points. We consider tasks where the discovered partition is allowed to vary with some covariate such as space or time. One approach would be to use fragmentation-coagulation processes, but these, being Markov processes, are restricted to linear or tree structured covariate spaces. We define a partition-valued process on an arbitrary covariate space using Gaussian processes. We use the process to construct a multitask clustering model which partitions datapoints in a similar way across multiple data sources, and a time series model of network data which allows cluster assignments to vary over time. We describe sampling algorithms for inference and apply our method to defining cancer subtypes based on different types of cellular characteristics, finding regulatory modules from gene expression data from multiple human populations, and discovering time varying community structure in a social network.

We propose a general formalism of iterated random functions with semigroup property, under which exact and approximate Bayesian posterior updates can be viewed as specific instances. A convergence theory for iterated random functions is presented. As an application of the general theory we analyze convergence behaviors of exact and approximate message-passing algorithms that arise in a sequential change point detection problem formulated via a latent variable directed graphical model. The sequential inference algorithm and its supporting theory are illustrated by simulated examples.

We present an automatic classification method for astronomical catalogs with missing data. We use Bayesian networks, a probabilistic graphical model, that allows us to perform inference to pre- dict missing values given observed data and dependency relationships between variables. To learn a Bayesian network from incomplete data, we use an iterative algorithm that utilises sampling methods and expectation maximization to estimate the distributions and probabilistic dependencies of variables from data with missing values. To test our model we use three catalogs with missing data (SAGE, 2MASS and UBVI) and one complete catalog (MACHO). We examine how classification accuracy changes when information from missing data catalogs is included, how our method compares to traditional missing data approaches and at what computational cost. Integrating these catalogs with missing data we find that classification of variable objects improves by few percent and by 15% for quasar detection while keeping the computational cost the same.

Perhaps surprisingly, it is possible to predict how long an algorithm will take to run on a previously unseen input, using machine learning techniques to build a model of the algorithm's runtime as a function of problem-specific instance features. Such models have important applications to algorithm analysis, portfolio-based algorithm selection, and the automatic configuration of parameterized algorithms. Over the past decade, a wide variety of techniques have been studied for building such models. Here, we describe extensions and improvements of existing models, new families of models, and -- perhaps most importantly -- a much more thorough treatment of algorithm parameters as model inputs. We also comprehensively describe new and existing features for predicting algorithm runtime for propositional satisfiability (SAT), travelling salesperson (TSP) and mixed integer programming (MIP) problems. We evaluate these innovations through the largest empirical analysis of its kind, comparing to a wide range of runtime modelling techniques from the literature. Our experiments consider 11 algorithms and 35 instance distributions; they also span a very wide range of SAT, MIP, and TSP instances, with the least structured having been generated uniformly at random and the most structured having emerged from real industrial applications. Overall, we demonstrate that our new models yield substantially better runtime predictions than previous approaches in terms of their generalization to new problem instances, to new algorithms from a parameterized space, and to both simultaneously.

Expectation Propagation (EP) provides a framework for approximate inference. When the model under consideration is over a latent Gaussian field, with the approximation being Gaussian, we show how these approximations can systematically be corrected. A perturbative expansion is made of the exact but intractable correction, and can be applied to the model's partition function and other moments of interest. The correction is expressed over the higher-order cumulants which are neglected by EP's local matching of moments. Through the expansion, we see that EP is correct to first order. By considering higher orders, corrections of increasing polynomial complexity can be applied to the approximation. The second order provides a correction in quadratic time, which we apply to an array of Gaussian process and Ising models. The corrections generalize to arbitrarily complex approximating families, which we illustrate on tree-structured Ising model approximations. Furthermore, they provide a polynomial-time assessment of the approximation error. We also provide both theoretical and practical insights on the exactness of the EP solution.

Community detection is the task of detecting hidden communities from observed interactions. Guaranteed community detection has so far been mostly limited to models with non-overlapping communities such as the stochastic block model. In this paper, we remove this restriction, and provide guaranteed community detection for a family of probabilistic network models with overlapping communities, termed as the mixed membership Dirichlet model, first introduced by Airoldi et al. This model allows for nodes to have fractional memberships in multiple communities and assumes that the community memberships are drawn from a Dirichlet distribution. Moreover, it contains the stochastic block model as a special case. We propose a unified approach to learning these models via a tensor spectral decomposition method. Our estimator is based on low-order moment tensor of the observed network, consisting of 3-star counts. Our learning method is fast and is based on simple linear algebraic operations, e.g. singular value decomposition and tensor power iterations. We provide guaranteed recovery of community memberships and model parameters and present a careful finite sample analysis of our learning method. As an important special case, our results match the best known scaling requirements for the (homogeneous) stochastic block model.

Significant success has been reported recently using deep neural networks for classification. Such large networks can be computationally intensive, even after training is over. Implementing these trained networks in hardware chips with a limited precision of synaptic weights may improve their speed and energy efficiency by several orders of magnitude, thus enabling their integration into small and low-power electronic devices. With this motivation, we develop a computationally efficient learning algorithm for multilayer neural networks with binary weights, assuming all the hidden neurons have a fan-out of one. This algorithm, derived within a Bayesian probabilistic online setting, is shown to work well for both synthetic and real-world problems, performing comparably to algorithms with real-valued weights, while retaining computational tractability.