The olfactory system faces a difficult inference problem: it has to determine what odors are present based on the distributed activation of its receptor neurons. Here we derive neural implementations of two approximate inference algorithms that could be used by the brain. One is a variational algorithm (which builds on the work of Beck. et al., 2012), the other is based on sampling. Importantly, we use a more realistic prior distribution over odors than has been used in the past: we use a spike and slab'' prior, for which most odors have zero concentration. After mapping the two algorithms onto neural dynamics, we find that both can infer correct odors in less than 100 ms, although it takes ~500 ms to eliminate false positives. Thus, at the behavioral level, the two algorithms make very similar predictions. However, they make different assumptions about connectivity and neural computations, and make different predictions about neural activity. Thus, they should be distinguishable experimentally. If so, that would provide insight into the mechanisms employed by the olfactory system, and, because the two algorithms use very different coding strategies, that would also provide insight into how networks represent probabilities."

We model a one-shot learning" situation, where very few (scalar) observations $y_1,...,y_n$ are available. Associated with each observation $y_i$ is a very high-dimensional vector $x_i$, which provides context for $y_i$ and enables us to predict subsequent observations, given their own context. One of the salient features of our analysis is that the problems studied here are easier when the dimension of $x_i$ is large; in other words, prediction becomes easier when more context is provided. The proposed methodology is a variant of principal component regression (PCR). Our rigorous analysis sheds new light on PCR. For instance, we show that classical PCR estimators may be inconsistent in the specified setting, unless they are multiplied by a scalar $c > 1$; that is, unless the classical estimator is expanded. This expansion phenomenon appears to be somewhat novel and contrasts with shrinkage methods ($c < 1$), which are far more common in big data analyses. "

Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are extremely useful for modeling and solving sequential decision making problems. Graph-based MDPs provide a compact representation for MDPs with large numbers of random variables. However, the complexity of exactly solving a graph-based MDP usually grows exponentially in the number of variables, which limits their application. We present a new varia-tional framework to describe and solve the planning problem of MDPs, and derive both exact and approximate planning algorithms. In particular, by exploiting the graph structure of graph-based MDPs, we propose a factored variational value iteration algorithm in which the value function is first approximated by the multiplication of local-scope value functions, then solved by minimizing a Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. The KL divergence is optimized using the belief propagation algorithm, with complexity exponential in only the cluster size of the graph. Experimental comparison on different models shows that our algorithm outperforms existing approximation algorithms at finding good policies.

Unstructured social group activity recognition in web videos is a challenging task due to 1) the semantic gap between class labels and low-level visual features and 2) the lack of labeled training data. To tackle this problem, we propose a "relevance topic model" for jointly learning meaningful mid-level representations upon bag-of-words (BoW) video representations and a classifier with sparse weights. In our approach, sparse Bayesian learning is incorporated into an undirected topic model (i.e., Replicated Softmax) to discover topics which are relevant to video classes and suitable for prediction. Rectified linear units are utilized to increase the expressive power of topics so as to explain better video data containing complex contents and make variational inference tractable for the proposed model. An efficient variational EM algorithm is presented for model parameter estimation and inference. Experimental results on the Unstructured Social Activity Attribute dataset show that our model achieves state of the art performance and outperforms other supervised topic model in terms of classification accuracy, particularly in the case of a very small number of labeled training videos.

Recent work on molecular programming has explored new possibilities for computational abstractions with biomolecules, including logic gates, neural networks, and linear systems. In the future such abstractions might enable nanoscale devices that can sense and control the world at a molecular scale. Just as in macroscale robotics, it is critical that such devices can learn about their environment and reason under uncertainty. At this small scale, systems are typically modeled as chemical reaction networks. In this work, we develop a procedure that can take arbitrary probabilistic graphical models, represented as factor graphs over discrete random variables, and compile them into chemical reaction networks that implement inference. In particular, we show that marginalization based on sum-product message passing can be implemented in terms of reactions between chemical species whose concentrations represent probabilities. We show algebraically that the steady state concentration of these species correspond to the marginal distributions of the random variables in the graph and validate the results in simulations. As with standard sum-product inference, this procedure yields exact results for tree-structured graphs, and approximate solutions for loopy graphs.

Psychophysical experiments have demonstrated that the brain integrates information from multiple sensory cues in a near Bayesian optimal manner. The present study proposes a novel mechanism to achieve this. We consider two reciprocally connected networks, mimicking the integration of heading direction information between the dorsal medial superior temporal (MSTd) and the ventral intraparietal (VIP) areas. Each network serves as a local estimator and receives an independent cue, either the visual or the vestibular, as direct input for the external stimulus. We find that positive reciprocal interactions can improve the decoding accuracy of each individual network as if it implements Bayesian inference from two cues. Our model successfully explains the experimental finding that both MSTd and VIP achieve Bayesian multisensory integration, though each of them only receives a single cue as direct external input. Our result suggests that the brain may implement optimal information integration distributively at each local estimator through the reciprocal connections between cortical regions.

When a probabilistic model and its prior are given, Bayesian learning offers inference with automatic parameter tuning. However, Bayesian learning is often obstructed by computational difficulty: the rigorous Bayesian learning is intractable in many models, and its variational Bayesian (VB) approximation is prone to suffer from local minima. In this paper, we overcome this difficulty for low-rank subspace clustering (LRSC) by providing an exact global solver and its efficient approximation. LRSC extracts a low-dimensional structure of data by embedding samples into the union of low-dimensional subspaces, and its variational Bayesian variant has shown good performance. We first prove a key property that the VB-LRSC model is highly redundant. Thanks to this property, the optimization problem of VB-LRSC can be separated into small subproblems, each of which has only a small number of unknown variables. Our exact global solver relies on another key property that the stationary condition of each subproblem is written as a set of polynomial equations, which is solvable with the homotopy method. For further computational efficiency, we also propose an efficient approximate variant, of which the stationary condition can be written as a polynomial equation with a single variable. Experimental results show the usefulness of our approach.

We develop an inference and optimal design procedure for recovering synaptic weights in neural microcircuits. We base our procedure on data from an experiment in which populations of putative presynaptic neurons can be stimulated while a subthreshold recording is made from a single postsynaptic neuron. We present a realistic statistical model which accounts for the main sources of variability in this experiment and allows for large amounts of information about the biological system to be incorporated if available. We then present a simpler model to facilitate online experimental design which entails the use of efficient Bayesian inference. The optimized approach results in equal quality posterior estimates of the synaptic weights in roughly half the number of experimental trials under experimentally realistic conditions, tested on synthetic data generated from the full model.

Measuring similarity is crucial to many learning tasks. It is also a richer and broader notion than what most metric learning algorithms can model. For example, similarity can arise from the process of aggregating the decisions of multiple latent components, where each latent component compares data in its own way by focusing on a different subset of features. In this paper, we propose Similarity Component Analysis (SCA), a probabilistic graphical model that discovers those latent components from data. In SCA, a latent component generates a local similarity value, computed with its own metric, independently of other components. The final similarity measure is then obtained by combining the local similarity values with a (noisy-)OR gate. We derive an EM-based algorithm for fitting the model parameters with similarity-annotated data from pairwise comparisons. We validate the SCA model on synthetic datasets where SCA discovers the ground-truth about the latent components. We also apply SCA to a multiway classification task and a link prediction task. For both tasks, SCA attains significantly better prediction accuracies than competing methods. Moreover, we show how SCA can be instrumental in exploratory analysis of data, where we gain insights about the data by examining patterns hidden in its latent components' local similarity values.

A probabilistic model based on the horseshoe prior is proposed for learning dependencies in the process of identifying relevant features for prediction. Exact inference is intractable in this model. However, expectation propagation offers an approximate alternative. Because the process of estimating feature selection dependencies may suffer from over-fitting in the model proposed, additional data from a multi-task learning scenario are considered for induction. The same model can be used in this setting with few modifications. Furthermore, the assumptions made are less restrictive than in other multi-task methods: The different tasks must share feature selection dependencies, but can have different relevant features and model coefficients. Experiments with real and synthetic data show that this model performs better than other multi-task alternatives from the literature. The experiments also show that the model is able to induce suitable feature selection dependencies for the problems considered, only from the training data.