Uncertainty
Approximate Inference in Continuous Determinantal Processes
Affandi, Raja Hafiz, Fox, Emily, Taskar, Ben
Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are random point processes well-suited for modeling repulsion. In machine learning, the focus of DPP-based models has been on diverse subset selection from a discrete and finite base set. This discrete setting admits an efficient sampling algorithm based on the eigendecomposition of the defining kernel matrix. Recently, there has been growing interest in using DPPs defined on continuous spaces. While the discrete-DPP sampler extends formally to the continuous case, computationally, the steps required are not tractable in general. In this paper, we present two efficient DPP sampling schemes that apply to a wide range of kernel functions: one based on low rank approximations via Nystrรถm and random Fourier feature techniques and another based on Gibbs sampling. We demonstrate the utility of continuous DPPs in repulsive mixture modeling and synthesizing human poses spanning activity spaces.
Real-Time Inference for a Gamma Process Model of Neural Spiking
Carlson, David E., Rao, Vinayak, Vogelstein, Joshua T., Carin, Lawrence
With simultaneous measurements from ever increasing populations of neurons, there is a growing need for sophisticated tools to recover signals from individual neurons. In electrophysiology experiments, this classically proceeds in a two-step process: (i) threshold the waveforms to detect putative spikes and (ii) cluster the waveforms into single units (neurons). We extend previous Bayesian nonparamet- ric models of neural spiking to jointly detect and cluster neurons using a Gamma process model. Importantly, we develop an online approximate inference scheme enabling real-time analysis, with performance exceeding the previous state-of-the- art. Via exploratory data analysisโusing data with partial ground truth as well as two novel data setsโwe find several features of our model collectively contribute to our improved performance including: (i) accounting for colored noise, (ii) de- tecting overlapping spikes, (iii) tracking waveform dynamics, and (iv) using mul- tiple channels. We hope to enable novel experiments simultaneously measuring many thousands of neurons and possibly adapting stimuli dynamically to probe ever deeper into the mysteries of the brain.
Low-rank matrix reconstruction and clustering via approximate message passing
Matsushita, Ryosuke, Tanaka, Toshiyuki
We study the problem of reconstructing low-rank matrices from their noisy observations. We formulate the problem in the Bayesian framework, which allows us to exploit structural properties of matrices in addition to low-rankedness, such as sparsity. We propose an efficient approximate message passing algorithm, derived from the belief propagation algorithm, to perform the Bayesian inference for matrix reconstruction. We have also successfully applied the proposed algorithm to a clustering problem, by formulating the problem of clustering as a low-rank matrix reconstruction problem with an additional structural property. Numerical experiments show that the proposed algorithm outperforms Lloyd's K-means algorithm.
Binary to Bushy: Bayesian Hierarchical Clustering with the Beta Coalescent
Hu, Yuening, Ying, Jordan L., III, Hal Daume, Ying, Z. Irene
Discovering hierarchical regularities in data is a key problem in interacting with large datasets, modeling cognition, and encoding knowledge. A previous Bayesian solution---Kingman's coalescent---provides a convenient probabilistic model for data represented as a binary tree. Unfortunately, this is inappropriate for data better described by bushier trees. We generalize an existing belief propagation framework of Kingman's coalescent to the beta coalescent, which models a wider range of tree structures. Because of the complex combinatorial search over possible structures, we develop new sampling schemes using sequential Monte Carlo and Dirichlet process mixture models, which render inference efficient and tractable. We present results on both synthetic and real data that show the beta coalescent outperforms Kingman's coalescent on real datasets and is qualitatively better at capturing data in bushy hierarchies.
What do row and column marginals reveal about your dataset?
Golshan, Behzad, Byers, John, Terzi, Evimaria
Numerous datasets ranging from group memberships within social networks to purchase histories on e-commerce sites are represented by binary matrices. While this data is often either proprietary or sensitive, aggregated data, notably row and column marginals, is often viewed as much less sensitive, and may be furnished for analysis. Here, we investigate how these data can be exploited to make inferences about the underlying matrix H. Instead of assuming a generative model for H, we view the input marginals as constraints on the dataspace of possible realizations of H and compute the probability density function of particular entries H(i,j) of interest. We do this, for all the cells of H simultaneously, without generating realizations but rather via implicitly sampling the datasets that satisfy the input marginals. The end result is an efficient algorithm with running time equal to the time required by standard sampling techniques to generate a single dataset from the same dataspace. Our experimental evaluation demonstrates the efficiency and the efficacy of our framework in multiple settings.
Reconciling "priors" & "priors" without prejudice?
Gribonval, Remi, Machart, Pierre
There are two major routes to address linear inverse problems. Whereas regularization-based approaches build estimators as solutions of penalized regression optimization problems, Bayesian estimators rely on the posterior distribution of the unknown, given some assumed family of priors. While these may seem radically different approaches, recent results have shown that, in the context of additive white Gaussian denoising, the Bayesian conditional mean estimator is always the solution of a penalized regression problem. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we extend the additive white Gaussian denoising results to general linear inverse problems with colored Gaussian noise. Second, we characterize conditions under which the penalty function associated to the conditional mean estimator can satisfy certain popular properties such as convexity, separability, and smoothness. This sheds light on some tradeoff between computational efficiency and estimation accuracy in sparse regularization, and draws some connections between Bayesian estimation and proximal optimization.
Forgetful Bayes and myopic planning: Human learning and decision-making in a bandit setting
How humans achieve long-term goals in an uncertain environment, via repeated trials and noisy observations, is an important problem in cognitive science. We investigate this behavior in the context of a multi-armed bandit task. We compare human behavior to a variety of models that vary in their representational and computational complexity. Our result shows that subjects' choices, on a trial-to- trial basis, are best captured by a "forgetful" Bayesian iterative learning model [21] in combination with a partially myopic decision policy known as Knowledge Gradient [7]. This model accounts for subjects' trial-by-trial choice better than a number of other previously proposed models, including optimal Bayesian learning and risk minimization, ฮต-greedy and win-stay-lose-shift. It has the added benefit of being closest in performance to the optimal Bayesian model than all the other heuristic models that have the same computational complexity (all are significantly less complex than the optimal model). These results constitute an advancement in the theoretical understanding of how humans negotiate the tension between exploration and exploitation in a noisy, imperfectly known environment.
Learning to Pass Expectation Propagation Messages
Heess, Nicolas, Tarlow, Daniel, Winn, John
Expectation Propagation (EP) is a popular approximate posterior inference algorithm that often provides a fast and accurate alternative to sampling-based methods. However, while the EP framework in theory allows for complex non-Gaussian factors, there is still a significant practical barrier to using them within EP, because doing so requires the implementation of message update operators, which can be difficult and require hand-crafted approximations. In this work, we study the question of whether it is possible to automatically derive fast and accurate EP updates by learning a discriminative model e.g., a neural network or random forest) to map EP message inputs to EP message outputs. We address the practical concerns that arise in the process, and we provide empirical analysis on several challenging and diverse factors, indicating that there is a space of factors where this approach appears promising.
Multiscale Dictionary Learning for Estimating Conditional Distributions
Petralia, Francesca, Vogelstein, Joshua T., Dunson, David B.
Nonparametric estimation of the conditional distribution of a response given high-dimensional features is a challenging problem. It is important to allow not only the mean but also the variance and shape of the response density to change flexibly with features, which are massive-dimensional. We propose a multiscale dictionary learning model, which expresses the conditional response density as a convex combination of dictionary densities, with the densities used and their weights dependent on the path through a tree decomposition of the feature space. A fast graph partitioning algorithm is applied to obtain the tree decomposition, with Bayesian methods then used to adaptively prune and average over different sub-trees in a soft probabilistic manner. The algorithm scales efficiently to approximately one million features. State of the art predictive performance is demonstrated for toy examples and two neuroscience applications including up to a million features.
Scalable Inference for Logistic-Normal Topic Models
Chen, Jianfei, Zhu, Jun, Wang, Zi, Zheng, Xun, Zhang, Bo
Logistic-normal topic models can effectively discover correlation structures among latent topics. However, their inference remains a challenge because of the non-conjugacy between the logistic-normal prior and multinomial topic mixing proportions. Existing algorithms either make restricting mean-field assumptions or are not scalable to large-scale applications. This paper presents a partially collapsed Gibbs sampling algorithm that approaches the provably correct distribution by exploring the ideas of data augmentation. To improve time efficiency, we further present a parallel implementation that can deal with large-scale applications and learn the correlation structures of thousands of topics from millions of documents. Extensive empirical results demonstrate the promise.