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 Uncertainty


Analyzing Hogwild Parallel Gaussian Gibbs Sampling

Neural Information Processing Systems

Sampling inference methods are computationally difficult to scale for many models in part because global dependencies can reduce opportunities for parallel computation. Without strict conditional independence structure among variables, standard Gibbs sampling theory requires sample updates to be performed sequentially, even if dependence between most variables is not strong. Empirical work has shown that some models can be sampled effectively by going Hogwild'' and simply running Gibbs updates in parallel with only periodic global communication, but the successes and limitations of such a strategy are not well understood. As a step towards such an understanding, we study the Hogwild Gibbs sampling strategy in the context of Gaussian distributions. We develop a framework which provides convergence conditions and error bounds along with simple proofs and connections to methods in numerical linear algebra. In particular, we show that if the Gaussian precision matrix is generalized diagonally dominant, then any Hogwild Gibbs sampler, with any update schedule or allocation of variables to processors, yields a stable sampling process with the correct sample mean. "


Bayesian inference for low rank spatiotemporal neural receptive fields

Neural Information Processing Systems

The receptive field (RF) of a sensory neuron describes how the neuron integrates sensory stimuli over time and space. In typical experiments with naturalistic or flickering spatiotemporal stimuli, RFs are very high-dimensional, due to the large number of coefficients needed to specify an integration profile across time and space. Estimating these coefficients from small amounts of data poses a variety of challenging statistical and computational problems. Here we address these challenges by developing Bayesian reduced rank regression methods for RF estimation. This corresponds to modeling the RF as a sum of several space-time separable (i.e., rank-1) filters, which proves accurate even for neurons with strongly oriented space-time RFs. This approach substantially reduces the number of parameters needed to specify the RF, from 1K-100K down to mere 100s in the examples we consider, and confers substantial benefits in statistical power and computational efficiency. In particular, we introduce a novel prior over low-rank RFs using the restriction of a matrix normal prior to the manifold of low-rank matrices. We then use a localized'' prior over row and column covariances to obtain sparse, smooth, localized estimates of the spatial and temporal RF components. We develop two methods for inference in the resulting hierarchical model: (1) a fully Bayesian method using blocked-Gibbs sampling; and (2) a fast, approximate method that employs alternating coordinate ascent of the conditional marginal likelihood. We develop these methods under Gaussian and Poisson noise models, and show that low-rank estimates substantially outperform full rank estimates in accuracy and speed using neural data from retina and V1."


Policy Shaping: Integrating Human Feedback with Reinforcement Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

A long term goal of Interactive Reinforcement Learning is to incorporate non-expert human feedback to solve complex tasks. State-of-the-art methods have approached this problem by mapping human information to reward and value signals to indicate preferences and then iterating over them to compute the necessary control policy. In this paper we argue for an alternate, more effective characterization of human feedback: Policy Shaping. We introduce Advise, a Bayesian approach that attempts to maximize the information gained from human feedback by utilizing it as direct labels on the policy. We compare Advise to state-of-the-art approaches and highlight scenarios where it outperforms them and importantly is robust to infrequent and inconsistent human feedback.


Probabilistic Movement Primitives

Neural Information Processing Systems

Movement Primitives (MP) are a well-established approach for representing modular and re-usable robot movement generators. Many state-of-the-art robot learning successes are based MPs, due to their compact representation of the inherently continuous and high dimensional robot movements. A major goal in robot learning is to combine multiple MPs as building blocks in a modular control architecture to solve complex tasks. To this effect, a MP representation has to allow for blending between motions, adapting to altered task variables, and co-activating multiple MPs in parallel. We present a probabilistic formulation of the MP concept that maintains a distribution over trajectories. Our probabilistic approach allows for the derivation of new operations which are essential for implementing all aforementioned properties in one framework. In order to use such a trajectory distribution for robot movement control, we analytically derive a stochastic feedback controller which reproduces the given trajectory distribution. We evaluate and compare our approach to existing methods on several simulated as well as real robot scenarios.


Restricting exchangeable nonparametric distributions

Neural Information Processing Systems

Distributions over matrices with exchangeable rows and infinitely many columns are useful in constructing nonparametric latent variable models. However, the distribution impliedby such models over the number of features exhibited by each data point may be poorly-suited for many modeling tasks. In this paper, we propose aclass of exchangeable nonparametric priors obtained by restricting the domain ofexisting models. Such models allow us to specify the distribution over the number of features per data point, and can achieve better performance on data sets where the number of features is not well-modeled by the original distribution.


Flexible sampling of discrete data correlations without the marginal distributions

Neural Information Processing Systems

Learning the joint dependence of discrete variables is a fundamental problem in machine learning, with many applications including prediction, clustering and dimensionality reduction. More recently, the framework of copula modeling has gained popularity due to its modular parametrization of joint distributions. Among other properties, copulas provide a recipe for combining flexible models for univariate marginal distributions with parametric families suitable for potentially high dimensional dependence structures. More radically, the extended rank likelihood approach of Hoff (2007) bypasses learning marginal models completely when such information is ancillary to the learning task at hand as in, e.g., standard dimensionality reduction problems or copula parameter estimation. The main idea is to represent data by their observable rank statistics, ignoring any other information from the marginals. Inference is typically done in a Bayesian framework with Gaussian copulas, and it is complicated by the fact this implies sampling within a space where the number of constraints increase quadratically with the number of data points. The result is slow mixing when using off-the-shelf Gibbs sampling. We present an efficient algorithm based on recent advances on constrained Hamiltonian Markov chain Monte Carlo that is simple to implement and does not require paying for a quadratic cost in sample size.


Symbolic Opportunistic Policy Iteration for Factored-Action MDPs

Neural Information Processing Systems

We address the scalability of symbolic planning under uncertainty with factored states and actions. Prior work has focused almost exclusively on factored states but not factored actions, and on value iteration (VI) compared to policy iteration (PI). Our ๏ฌrst contribution is a novel method for symbolic policy backups via the application of constraints, which is used to yield a new ef๏ฌcient symbolic imple- mentation of modi๏ฌed PI (MPI) for factored action spaces. While this approach improves scalability in some cases, naive handling of policy constraints comes with its own scalability issues. This leads to our second and main contribution, symbolic Opportunistic Policy Iteration (OPI), which is a novel convergent al- gorithm lying between VI and MPI. The core idea is a symbolic procedure that applies policy constraints only when they reduce the space and time complexity of the update, and otherwise performs full Bellman backups, thus automatically adjusting the backup per state. We also give a memory bounded version of this algorithm allowing a space-time tradeoff. Empirical results show signi๏ฌcantly improved scalability over the state-of-the-art.


Integrated Non-Factorized Variational Inference

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a non-factorized variational method for full posterior inference in Bayesian hierarchical models, with the goal of capturing the posterior variable dependencies via efficient and possibly parallel computation. Our approach unifies the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) under the variational framework. The proposed method is applicable in more challenging scenarios than typically assumed by INLA, such as Bayesian Lasso, which is characterized by the non-differentiability of the $\ell_{1}$ norm arising from independent Laplace priors. We derive an upper bound for the Kullback-Leibler divergence, which yields a fast closed-form solution via decoupled optimization. Our method is a reliable analytic alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and it results in a tighter evidence lower bound than that of mean-field variational Bayes (VB) method.


Universal models for binary spike patterns using centered Dirichlet processes

Neural Information Processing Systems

Probabilistic models for binary spike patterns provide a powerful tool for understanding the statistical dependencies in large-scale neural recordings. Maximum entropy (or maxent'') models, which seek to explain dependencies in terms of low-order interactions between neurons, have enjoyed remarkable success in modeling such patterns, particularly for small groups of neurons. However, these models are computationally intractable for large populations, and low-order maxent models have been shown to be inadequate for some datasets. To overcome these limitations, we propose a family of "universal'' models for binary spike patterns, where universality refers to the ability to model arbitrary distributions over all $2^m$ binary patterns. We construct universal models using a Dirichlet process centered on a well-behaved parametric base measure, which naturally combines the flexibility of a histogram and the parsimony of a parametric model. We derive computationally efficient inference methods using Bernoulli and cascade-logistic base measures, which scale tractably to large populations. We also establish a condition for equivalence between the cascade-logistic and the 2nd-order maxent or "Ising'' model, making cascade-logistic a reasonable choice for base measure in a universal model. We illustrate the performance of these models using neural data."


Scalable Inference for Logistic-Normal Topic Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

Logistic-normal topic models can effectively discover correlation structures among latent topics. However, their inference remains a challenge because of the non-conjugacy between the logistic-normal prior and multinomial topic mixing proportions. Existing algorithms either make restricting mean-field assumptions or are not scalable to large-scale applications. This paper presents a partially collapsed Gibbs sampling algorithm that approaches the provably correct distribution by exploring the ideas of data augmentation. To improve time efficiency, we further present a parallel implementation that can deal with large-scale applications and learn the correlation structures of thousands of topics from millions of documents. Extensive empirical results demonstrate the promise.