Distinguishing cause and effect from bivariate observational data is a foundational problem in many disciplines, but challenging without additional assumptions. Additive noise models (ANMs) are widely used to enable sample-efficient bivariate causal discovery. However, conventional ANM-based methods fail when unobserved mediators corrupt the causal relationship between variables. This paper makes three key contributions: first, we rigorously characterize why standard ANM approaches break down in the presence of unmeasured mediators. Second, we demonstrate that prior solutions for hidden mediation are brittle in finite sample settings, limiting their practical utility. To address these gaps, we propose Bivariate Denoising Diffusion (BiDD) for causal discovery, a method designed to handle latent noise introduced by unmeasured mediators. Unlike prior methods that infer directionality through mean squared error loss comparisons, our approach introduces a novel independence test statistic: during the noising and denoising processes for each variable, we condition on the other variable as input and evaluate the independence of the predicted noise relative to this input. We prove asymptotic consistency of BiDD under the ANM, and conjecture that it performs well under hidden mediation. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate consistent performance, outperforming existing methods in mediator-corrupted settings while maintaining strong performance in mediator-free settings.

Modeling and forecasting nonlinear dynamics under distribution shifts is essential for robust decision-making in real-world systems. In this work, we propose MetaKoopman, a Bayesian meta-learning framework for modeling nonlinear dynamics through linear latent representations. MetaKoopman learns a Matrix Normal-Inverse Wishart (MNIW) prior over the Koopman operator, enabling closed-form Bayesian updates conditioned on recent trajectory segments. Moreover, it provides a closed-form posterior predictive distribution over future state trajectories, capturing both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty in the learned dynamics. We evaluate MetaKoopman on a full-scale autonomous truck and trailer system across a wide range of adverse winter scenarios--including snow, ice, and mixed-friction conditions--as well as in simulated control tasks with diverse distribution shifts. MetaKoopman consistently outperforms prior approaches in multi-step prediction accuracy, uncertainty calibration and robustness to distributional shifts. Field experiments further demonstrate its effectiveness in dynamically feasible motion planning, particularly during evasive maneuvers and operation at the limits of traction.

The Poisson Generalized Linear Model (GLM) is a foundational tool for analyzing neural spike train data. However, standard implementations rely on discretizing spike times into binned count data, limiting temporal resolution and scalability. Here, we develop Monte Carlo (MC) methods and polynomial approximations (PA) to the continuous-time analog of these models, and show them to be advantageous over their discrete-time counterparts. Further, we propose using a set of exponentially scaled Laguerre polynomials as an orthogonal temporal basis, which improves filter identification and yields closed-form integral solutions under the polynomial approximation. Applied to both synthetic and real spike-time data from rodent hippocampus, our methods demonstrate superior accuracy and scalability compared to traditional binned GLMs, enabling functional connectivity inference in large-scale neural recordings that are temporally precise on the order of synaptic dynamical timescales and in agreement with known anatomical properties of hippocampal subregions. We provide open-source implementations of both MC and PA estimators, optimized for GPU acceleration, to facilitate adoption in the neuroscience community1.

In standard autoregressive generation, an LLM predicts the next-token distribution, samples a discrete token, and then discards the distribution, passing only the sampled token as new input. To preserve this distribution's rich information, we propose Mixture of Inputs (MOI), a training-free method for autoregressive generation. After generating a token following the standard paradigm, we construct a new input that blends the generated discrete token with the previously discarded token distribution. Specifically, we employ a Bayesian estimation method that treats the token distribution as the prior, the sampled token as the observation, and replaces the conventional one-hot vector with the continuous posterior expectation as the new model input. MOI allows the model to maintain a richer internal representation throughout the generation process, resulting in improved text quality and reasoning capabilities. On mathematical reasoning, code generation, and PhDlevel QA tasks, MOI consistently improves performance across multiple models including QwQ-32B, Nemotron-Super-49B, Gemma-3-27B, and DAPO-Qwen32B, with no additional training and negligible computational overhead.

In off-policy policy evaluation (OPE) tasks within reinforcement learning, Temporal Difference Learning(TD) and Fitted Q-Iteration (FQI) have traditionally been viewed as differing in the number of updates toward the target value function: TD makes one update, FQI makes an infinite number, and Partial Fitted Q-Iteration (PFQI) performs a finite number. We show that this view is not accurate, and provide a new mathematical perspective under linear value function approximation that unifies these methods as a single iterative method solving the same linear system, but using different matrix splitting schemes and preconditioners. We show that increasing the number of updates under the same target value function, i.e., the target network technique, is a transition from using a constant preconditioner to using a data-feature adaptive preconditioner. This elucidates, for the first time, why TD convergence does not necessarily imply FQI convergence, and establishes tight convergence connections among TD, PFQI, and FQI. Our framework enables sharper theoretical results than previous work and characterization of the convergence conditions for each algorithm, without relying on assumptions about the features (e.g., linear independence). We also provide an encoder-decoder perspective to better understand the convergence conditions of TD, and prove, for the first time, that when a large learning rate doesn't work, trying a smaller one may help. Our framework also leads to the discovery of new crucial conditions on features for convergence, and shows how common assumptions about features influence convergence, e.g., the assumption of linearly independent features can be dropped without compromising the convergence guarantees of stochastic TD in the on-policy setting. This paper is also the first to introduce matrix splitting into the convergence analysis of these algorithms.

We address the challenge of training diffusion models to sample from unnormalized energy distributions in the absence of data, the so-called diffusion samplers. Although these approaches have shown promise, they struggle to scale in more demanding scenarios where energy evaluations are expensive and the sampling space is high-dimensional. To address this limitation, we propose a scalable and sample-efficient framework that properly harmonizes the powerful classical sampling method and the diffusion sampler. Specifically, we utilize Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) samplers with a novelty-based auxiliary energy as a Searcher to collect off-policy samples, using an auxiliary energy function to compensate for exploring modes the diffusion sampler rarely visits. These off-policy samples are then combined with on-policy data to train the diffusion sampler, thereby expanding its coverage of the energy landscape. Furthermore, we identify primacy bias, i.e., the preference of samplers for early experience during training, as the main cause of mode collapse during training, and introduce a periodic re-initialization trick to resolve this issue. Our method significantly improves sample efficiency on standard benchmarks for diffusion samplers and also excels at higher-dimensional problems and real-world molecular conformer generation.

Planning under opponent uncertainty is a fundamental challenge in multi-agent environments, where an agent must act while inferring the hidden policies of its opponents. Existing type-based methods rely on manually defined behavior classes and struggle to scale, while model-free approaches are sample-inefficient and lack a principled way to incorporate uncertainty into planning. We propose Quantized Opponent Models (QOM), which learn a compact catalog of opponent types via a quantized autoencoder and maintain a Bayesian belief over these types online. This posterior supports both a belief-weighted meta-policy and a Monte-Carlo planning algorithm that directly integrates uncertainty, enabling real-time belief updates and focused exploration. Experiments show that QOM achieves superior performance with lower search cost, offering a tractable and effective solution for belief-aware planning.

We study deployment-efficient reward-free exploration with linear function approximation, where the goal is to explore a linear Markov Decision Process (MDP) without revealing the reward function, while minimizing the number of distinct policies implemented during learning. By "deployment efficient", we mean algorithms that require few policies deployed during exploration - crucial in real-world applications where such deployments are costly or disruptive. We design a novel reinforcement learning algorithm that achieves near-optimal deployment efficiency for linear MDPs in the reward-free setting, using at most H exploration policies during execution (where H is the horizon length), while maintaining sample complexity polynomial in feature dimension and horizon length. Unlike previous approaches with similar deployment efficiency guarantees, our algorithm's sample complexity is independent of the reachability or explorability coefficients of the underlying MDP, which can be arbitrarily small and lead to unbounded sample complexity in certain cases - directly addressing an open problem from prior work. Our technical contributions include a data-dependent method for truncating stateaction pairs in linear MDPs, efficient offline policy evaluation and optimization algorithms for these truncated MDPs, and a careful integration of these components to implement reward-free exploration with linear function approximation without sacrificing deployment efficiency.

Safe Reinforcement Learning (RL) is crucial for achieving high performance while ensuring safety in real-world applications. However, the complex interplay of multiple uncertainty sources in real environments poses significant challenges for interpretable risk assessment and robust decision-making. To address these challenges, we propose Fuz-RL, a fuzzy measure-guided robust framework for safe RL. Specifically, our framework develops a novel fuzzy Bellman operator for estimating robust value functions using Choquet integrals. Theoretically, we prove that solving the Fuz-RL problem (in Constrained Markov Decision Process (CMDP) form) is equivalent to solving distributionally robust safe RL problems (in robust CMDP form), effectively reformulating the min-max optimization problem into a tractable CMDP with Choquet-integrated value functions. Empirical analyses on safe-control-gym and safety-gymnasium scenarios demonstrate that Fuz-RL effectively integrates with existing safe RL baselines in a model-free manner, significantly improving both safety and control performance under various types of uncertainties in observation, action, and dynamics. The code is available in https://github.com/waunx/FuzRL.

Understanding representational similarity between neural recordings and computational models is essential for neuroscience, yet remains challenging to measure reliably due to the constraints on the number of neurons that can be recorded simultaneously. In this work, we apply tools from Random Matrix Theory to investigate how such limitations affect similarity measures, focusing on Centered Kernel Alignment (CKA) and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). We propose an analytical framework for representational similarity analysis that relates measured similarities to the spectral properties of the underlying representations. We demonstrate that neural similarities are systematically underestimated under finite neuron sampling, mainly due to eigenvector delocalization. Moreover, for power-law population spectra, we show that the number of localized eigenvectors scales as the square root of the number of recorded neurons, providing a simple rule of thumb for practitioners. To overcome sampling bias, we introduce a denoising method to infer population-level similarity, enabling accurate analysis even with small neuron samples. Theoretical predictions are validated on synthetic and real datasets, offering practical strategies for interpreting neural data under finite sampling constraints.