Developing feature selection algorithms that move beyond a pure correlational to a more causal analysis of observational data is an important problem in the sciences. Several algorithms attempt to do so by discovering the Markov blanket of a target, but they all contain a forward selection step which variables must pass in order to be included in the conditioning set. As a result, these algorithms may not consider all possible conditional multivariate combinations. We improve on this limitation by proposing a backward elimination method that uses a kernel-based conditional dependence measure to identify the Markov blanket in a fully multivariate fashion. The algorithm is easy to implement and compares favorably to other methods on synthetic and real datasets.

This paper proposes an online tree-based Bayesian approach for reinforcement learning. For inference, we employ a generalised context tree model. This defines a distribution on multivariate Gaussian piecewise-linear models, which can be updated in closed form. The tree structure itself is constructed using the cover tree method, which remains efficient in high dimensional spaces. We combine the model with Thompson sampling and approximate dynamic programming to obtain effective exploration policies in unknown environments. The flexibility and computational simplicity of the model render it suitable for many reinforcement learning problems in continuous state spaces. We demonstrate this in an experimental comparison with a Gaussian process model, a linear model and simple least squares policy iteration.

We develop a nested hierarchical Dirichlet process (nHDP) for hierarchical topic modeling. The nHDP is a generalization of the nested Chinese restaurant process (nCRP) that allows each word to follow its own path to a topic node according to a document-specific distribution on a shared tree. This alleviates the rigid, single-path formulation of the nCRP, allowing a document to more easily express thematic borrowings as a random effect. We derive a stochastic variational inference algorithm for the model, in addition to a greedy subtree selection method for each document, which allows for efficient inference using massive collections of text documents. We demonstrate our algorithm on 1.8 million documents from The New York Times and 3.3 million documents from Wikipedia.

A sequence of random variables is exchangeable if its joint distribution is invariant under variable permutations. We introduce exchangeable variable models (EVMs) as a novel class of probabilistic models whose basic building blocks are partially exchangeable sequences, a generalization of exchangeable sequences. We prove that a family of tractable EVMs is optimal under zero-one loss for a large class of functions, including parity and threshold functions, and strictly subsumes existing tractable independence-based model families. Extensive experiments show that EVMs outperform state of the art classifiers such as SVMs and probabilistic models which are solely based on independence assumptions.

Given a collection of categorical data, we want to find the parameters of a Dirichlet distribution which maximizes the likelihood of that data. Newton's method is typically used for this purpose but current implementations require reading through the entire dataset on each iteration. In this paper, we propose a modification which requires only a single pass through the dataset and substantially decreases running time. Furthermore we analyze both theoretically and empirically the performance of the proposed algorithm, and provide an open source implementation.

How can we perform efficient inference and learning in directed probabilistic models, in the presence of continuous latent variables with intractable posterior distributions, and large datasets? We introduce a stochastic variational inference and learning algorithm that scales to large datasets and, under some mild differentiability conditions, even works in the intractable case. Our contributions is two-fold. First, we show that a reparameterization of the variational lower bound yields a lower bound estimator that can be straightforwardly optimized using standard stochastic gradient methods. Second, we show that for i.i.d. datasets with continuous latent variables per datapoint, posterior inference can be made especially efficient by fitting an approximate inference model (also called a recognition model) to the intractable posterior using the proposed lower bound estimator. Theoretical advantages are reflected in experimental results.

In recent years, the task of automatically linking pieces of text (anchors) mentioned in a document to Wikipedia articles that represent the meaning of these anchors has received extensive research attention. Typically, link-to-Wikipedia systems try to find a set of Wikipedia articles that are candidates to represent the meaning of the anchor and, later, rank these candidates to select the most appropriate one. In this ranking process the systems rely on context information obtained from the document where the anchor is mentioned and/or from Wikipedia. In this paper we center our attention in the use of Wikipedia links as context information. In particular, we offer a review of several candidate ranking approaches in the state-of-the-art that rely on Wikipedia link information. In addition, we provide a comparative empirical evaluation of the different approaches on five different corpora: the TAC 2010 corpus and four corpora built from actual Wikipedia articles and news items.

This paper introduces a novel mixture model-based approach for simultaneous clustering and optimal segmentation of functional data which are curves presenting regime changes. The proposed model consists in a finite mixture of piecewise polynomial regression models. Each piecewise polynomial regression model is associated with a cluster, and within each cluster, each piecewise polynomial component is associated with a regime (i.e., a segment). We derive two approaches for learning the model parameters. The former is an estimation approach and consists in maximizing the observed-data likelihood via a dedicated expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. A fuzzy partition of the curves in K clusters is then obtained at convergence by maximizing the posterior cluster probabilities. The latter however is a classification approach and optimizes a specific classification likelihood criterion through a dedicated classification expectation-maximization (CEM) algorithm. The optimal curve segmentation is performed by using dynamic programming. In the classification approach, both the curve clustering and the optimal segmentation are performed simultaneously as the CEM learning proceeds. We show that the classification approach is the probabilistic version that generalizes the deterministic K-means-like algorithm proposed in H\'ebrail et al. (2010). The proposed approach is evaluated using simulated curves and real-world curves. Comparisons with alternatives including regression mixture models and the K-means like algorithm for piecewise regression demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

The systematic biases seen in people's probability judgments are typically taken as evidence that people do not reason about probability using the rules of probability theory, but instead use heuristics which sometimes yield reasonable judgments and sometimes systematic biases. This view has had a major impact in economics, law, medicine, and other fields; indeed, the idea that people cannot reason with probabilities has become a widespread truism. We present a simple alternative to this view, where people reason about probability according to probability theory but are subject to random variation or noise in the reasoning process. In this account the effect of noise is cancelled for some probabilistic expressions: analysing data from two experiments we find that, for these expressions, people's probability judgments are strikingly close to those required by probability theory. For other expressions this account produces systematic deviations in probability estimates. These deviations explain four reliable biases in human probabilistic reasoning (conservatism, subadditivity, conjunction and disjunction fallacies). These results suggest that people's probability judgments embody the rules of probability theory, and that biases in those judgments are due to the effects of random noise.

Regression aims at estimating the conditional mean of output given input. However, regression is not informative enough if the conditional density is multimodal, heteroscedastic, and asymmetric. In such a case, estimating the conditional density itself is preferable, but conditional density estimation (CDE) is challenging in high-dimensional space. A naive approach to coping with high-dimensionality is to first perform dimensionality reduction (DR) and then execute CDE. However, such a two-step process does not perform well in practice because the error incurred in the first DR step can be magnified in the second CDE step. In this paper, we propose a novel single-shot procedure that performs CDE and DR simultaneously in an integrated way. Our key idea is to formulate DR as the problem of minimizing a squared-loss variant of conditional entropy, and this is solved via CDE. Thus, an additional CDE step is not needed after DR. We demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed method through extensive experiments on various datasets including humanoid robot transition and computer art.