Uncertainty
Inference of Cancer Progression Models with Biological Noise
Korsunsky, Ilya, Ramazzotti, Daniele, Caravagna, Giulio, Mishra, Bud
Many applications in translational medicine require the understanding of how diseases progress through the accumulation of persistent events. Specialized Bayesian networks called monotonic progression networks offer a statistical framework for modeling this sort of phenomenon. Current machine learning tools to reconstruct Bayesian networks from data are powerful but not suited to progression models. We combine the technological advances in machine learning with a rigorous philosophical theory of causation to produce Polaris, a scalable algorithm for learning progression networks that accounts for causal or biological noise as well as logical relations among genetic events, making the resulting models easy to interpret qualitatively. We tested Polaris on synthetically generated data and showed that it outperforms a widely used machine learning algorithm and approaches the performance of the competing special-purpose, albeit clairvoyant algorithm that is given a priori information about the model parameters. We also prove that under certain rather mild conditions, Polaris is guaranteed to converge for sufficiently large sample sizes. Finally, we applied Polaris to point mutation and copy number variation data in Prostate cancer from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and found that there are likely three distinct progressions, one major androgen driven progression, one major non-androgen driven progression, and one novel minor androgen driven progression.
Consensus and Consistency Level Optimization of Fuzzy Preference Relation: A Soft Computing Approach
In group decision making (GDM) problems fuzzy preference relations (FPR) are widely used for representing decision makers' opinions on the set of alternatives. In order to avoid misleading solutions, the study of consistency and consensus has become a very important aspect. This article presents a simulated annealing (SA) based soft computing approach to optimize the consistency/consensus level (CCL) of a complete fuzzy preference relation in order to solve a GDM problem. Consistency level indicates as expert's preference quality and consensus level measures the degree of agreement among experts' opinions. This study also suggests the set of experts for the necessary modifications in their prescribed preference structures without intervention of any moderator.