Various representations and inference methods have been proposed for lifted probabilistic inference in relational models. Many of these methods choose an order to eliminate (or branch on) the parameterized random variables. Similar to such methods for non-relational probabilistic inference, the order of elimination has a significant role in the performance of the algorithms. Since finding the best order is NP-complete even for non-relational models, heuristics have been proposed to find good orderings in the non-relational models. In this paper, we show that these heuristics are inefficient for relational models, because they fail to consider the population sizes associated with logical variables. We extend existing heuristics for non-relational models and propose new heuristics for relational models. We evaluate the existing and new heuristics on a range of generated relational graphs.

The frequency and intensity of natural disasters has significantly increased over the past decades and this trend is predicted to continue. Facing these possible and unexpected disasters, urban emergency management has become the especially important issue for the whole governments around the world. In this paper, we present a novel intelligent system for urban emergency management during the large-scale disasters. The proposed system stores and manages the global positioning system (GPS) records from mobile devices used by approximately 1.6 million people throughout Japan over one year. By mining and analyzing population movements after the Great East Japan Earthquake, our system can automatically learn a probabilistic model to better understand and simulate human mobility during the emergency situations. Based on the learning model, population mobility in various urban areas impacted by the earthquake throughout Japan can be automatically simulated or predicted. On the basis of such kind of system, it is easy for us to find some new features or population mobility patterns after the recent and unprecedented composite disasters, which are likely to provide valuable experience and play a vital role for future disaster management worldwide. Figure 1: What kinds of experiences or model can we learn from the unprecedented composite disaster of Japan in 2011?

In disease mapping, the spatial scan statistic is used to detect spatial regions where population is exposed to a significantly higher disease risk than expected. In this important application, the current residence is typically used to define the location of individuals from the population. Considering the mobility of humans at various temporal and spatial scales, using only information about the current residence may be an insufficiently informative proxy because it ignores a multitude of exposures that may occur away from home, or which had occurred at previous residences. In this paper, we propose a spatial scan statistic that is appropriate for disease mapping on mobile populations. We formulate a computationally efficient algorithm that uses the proposed statistic to find significant high-risk regions from mobile population's disease status data. The algorithm is applicable on large populations and over dense spatial grids. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is computationally efficient and outperforms the traditional disease clustering approaches at discovering high-risk regions in mobile populations.

In this paper we computationally examine how subjective experience may help or harm the decision maker's learning under uncertain outcomes, frames and their interactions. To model subjective experience, we propose the "experienced-utility function" based on a prospect theory (PT)-based parameterized subjective value function. Our analysis and simulations of two-armed bandit tasks present that the task domain (underlying outcome distributions) and framing (reference point selection) influence experienced utilities and in turn, the "subjective discriminability" of choices under uncertainty. Experiments demonstrate that subjective discriminability improves on objective discriminability by the use of the experienced-utility function with appropriate framing for a given task domain, and that bigger subjective discriminability leads to more optimal decisions in learning under uncertainty.

Temporal online content becomes the zeitgeist to reflect our interests and changes. Active users are essential participants and promoters behind it. Temporal dynamics becomes a viable way to investigate users. However, most current work only use global temporal trend and fail to distinguish such fine-grained patterns across groups. Different users have diverse interest and exhibit distinct behaviors, and temporal dynamics tend to be different. This paper proposes GrosToT (Group Specific Topics-over-Time), a unified probabilistic model to infer latent user groups and temporal topics at the same time. It models group-specific temporal topic variation from social content. By leveraging the comprehensive group-specific temporal patterns, GrosToT significantly outperforms state-of-the-art dynamics modeling methods. Our proposed approach shows advantage not only in temporal dynamics but also group content modeling. The dynamics over different groups vary, reflecting the groups' intention. GrosToT uncovers the interplay between group interest and temporal dynamics. Specifically, groups' attention to their medium-interested topics are event-driven, showing rich bursts; while its engagement in group's dominating topics are interest-driven, remaining stable over time.

Online social networking sites have become popular platforms on which users can link with each other and share information, not only basic rating information but also information such as contexts, social relationships, and item contents. However, as far as we know, no existing works systematically combine diverse types of information to build more accurate recommender systems. In this paper, we propose a novel context-aware hierarchical Bayesian method. First, we propose the use of spectral clustering for user-item subgrouping, so that users and items in similar contexts are grouped. We then propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian model that can make predictions for each user-item subgroup, our model incorporate not only topic modeling to mine item content but also social matrix factorization to handle ratings and social relationships. Experiments on an Epinions dataset show that our method significantly improves recommendation performance compared with six categories of state-of-the-art recommendation methods in terms of both prediction accuracy and recall. We have also conducted experiments to study the extent to which ratings, contexts, social relationships, and item contents contribute to recommendation performance in terms of prediction accuracy and recall.

Regularized linear regression under the $\ell_1$ penalty, such as the Lasso, has been shown to be effective in variable selection and sparse modeling. The sampling distribution of an $\ell_1$-penalized estimator $\hat{\beta}$ is hard to determine as the estimator is defined by an optimization problem that in general can only be solved numerically and many of its components may be exactly zero. Let $S$ be the subgradient of the $\ell_1$ norm of the coefficient vector $\beta$ evaluated at $\hat{\beta}$. We find that the joint sampling distribution of $\hat{\beta}$ and $S$, together called an augmented estimator, is much more tractable and has a closed-form density under a normal error distribution in both low-dimensional ($p\leq n$) and high-dimensional ($p>n$) settings. Given $\beta$ and the error variance $\sigma^2$, one may employ standard Monte Carlo methods, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling, to draw samples from the distribution of the augmented estimator and calculate expectations with respect to the sampling distribution of $\hat{\beta}$. We develop a few concrete Monte Carlo algorithms and demonstrate with numerical examples that our approach may offer huge advantages and great flexibility in studying sampling distributions in $\ell_1$-penalized linear regression. We also establish nonasymptotic bounds on the difference between the true sampling distribution of $\hat{\beta}$ and its estimator obtained by plugging in estimated parameters, which justifies the validity of Monte Carlo simulation from an estimated sampling distribution even when $p\gg n\to \infty$.

Learning Markov blanket (MB) structures has proven useful in performing feature selection, learning Bayesian networks (BNs), and discovering causal relationships. We present a formula for efficiently determining the number of MB structures given a target variable and a set of other variables. As expected, the number of MB structures grows exponentially. However, we show quantitatively that there are many fewer MB structures that contain the target variable than there are BN structures that contain it. In particular, the ratio of BN structures to MB structures appears to increase exponentially in the number of variables.

We introduce a new sequential Monte Carlo algorithm we call the particle cascade . The particle cascade is an asynchronous, anytime alternative to traditional particle filtering algorithms. It uses no barrier synchronizations which leads to improved particle throughput and memory efficiency. It is an anytime algorithm in the sense that it can be run forever to emit an unbounded number of particles while keeping within a fixed memory budget. We prove that the particle cascade is an unbiased marginal likelihood estimator which means that it can be straightforwardly plugged into existing pseudomarginal methods.

Forward inference techniques such as sequential Monte Carlo and particle Markov chain Monte Carlo for probabilistic programming can be implemented in any programming language by creative use of standardized operating system functionality including processes, forking, mutexes, and shared memory. Exploiting this we have defined, developed, and tested a probabilistic programming language intermediate representation language we call probabilistic C, which itself can be compiled to machine code by standard compilers and linked to operating system libraries yielding an efficient, scalable, portable probabilistic programming compilation target. This opens up a new hardware and systems research path for optimizing probabilistic programming systems.