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 Uncertainty


Using The Matrix Ridge Approximation to Speedup Determinantal Point Processes Sampling Algorithms

AAAI Conferences

Determinantal point process (DPP) is an important probabilistic model that has extensive applications in artificial intelligence. The exact sampling algorithm of DPP requires the full eigenvalue decomposition of the kernel matrix which has high time and space complexities. This prohibits the applications of DPP from large-scale datasets. Previous work has applied the Nystrom method to speedup the sampling algorithm of DPP, and error bounds have been established for the approximation. In this paper we employ the matrix ridge approximation (MRA) to speedup the sampling algorithm of DPP, showing that our approach MRA-DPP has stronger error bound than the Nystrom-DPP. In certain circumstances our MRA-DPP is provably exact, whereas the Nystrom-DPP is far from the ground truth. Finally, experiments on several real-world datasets show that our MRA-DPP is more accurate than the other approximation approaches.


Wormhole Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

AAAI Conferences

In machine learning and statistics, probabilistic inference involving multimodal distributions is quite difficult. This is especially true in high dimensional problems, where most existing algorithms cannot easily move from one mode to another. To address this issue, we propose a novel Bayesian inference approach based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Our method can effectively sample from multimodal distributions, especially when the dimension is high and the modes are isolated. To this end, it exploits and modifies the Riemannian geometric properties of the target distribution to create \emph{wormholes} connecting modes in order to facilitate moving between them. Further, our proposed method uses the regeneration technique in order to adapt the algorithm by identifying new modes and updating the network of wormholes without affecting the stationary distribution. To find new modes, as opposed to rediscovering those previously identified, we employ a novel mode searching algorithm that explores a \emph{residual energy} function obtained by subtracting an approximate Gaussian mixture density (based on previously discovered modes) from the target density function.


Monte Carlo Filtering Using Kernel Embedding of Distributions

AAAI Conferences

Recent advances of kernel methods have yielded a framework for representing probabilities using a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, called kernel embedding of distributions. In this paper, we propose a Monte Carlo filtering algorithm based on kernel embeddings. The proposed method is applied to state-space models where sampling from the transition model is possible, while the observation model is to be learned from training samples without assuming a parametric model. As a theoretical basis of the proposed method, we prove consistency of the Monte Carlo method combined with kernel embeddings. Experimental results on synthetic models and real vision-based robot localization confirm the effectiveness of the proposed approach.


Kernelized Bayesian Transfer Learning

AAAI Conferences

Transfer learning considers related but distinct tasks defined on heterogenous domains and tries to transfer knowledge between these tasks to improve generalization performance. It is particularly useful when we do not have sufficient amount of labeled training data in some tasks, which may be very costly, laborious, or even infeasible to obtain. Instead, learning the tasks jointly enables us to effectively increase the amount of labeled training data. In this paper, we formulate a kernelized Bayesian transfer learning framework that is a principled combination of kernel-based dimensionality reduction models with task-specific projection matrices to find a shared subspace and a coupled classification model for all of the tasks in this subspace. Our two main contributions are: (i) two novel probabilistic models for binary and multiclass classification, and (ii) very efficient variational approximation procedures for these models. We illustrate the generalization performance of our algorithms on two different applications. In computer vision experiments, our method outperforms the state-of-the-art algorithms on nine out of 12 benchmark supervised domain adaptation experiments defined on two object recognition data sets. In cancer biology experiments, we use our algorithm to predict mutation status of important cancer genes from gene expression profiles using two distinct cancer populations, namely, patient-derived primary tumor data and in-vitro-derived cancer cell line data. We show that we can increase our generalization performance on primary tumors using cell lines as an auxiliary data source.


Learning the Structure of Probabilistic Graphical Models with an Extended Cascading Indian Buffet Process

AAAI Conferences

This paper presents an extension of the cascading Indian buffet process (CIBP) intended to learning arbitrary directed acyclic graph structures as opposed to the CIBP, which is limited to purely layered structures. The extended cascading Indian buffet process (eCIBP) essentially consists in adding an extra sampling step to the CIBP to generate connections between non-consecutive layers. In the context of graphical model structure learning, the proposed approach allows learning structures having an unbounded number of hidden random variables and automatically selecting the model complexity. We evaluated the extended process on multivariate density estimation and structure identification tasks by measuring the structure complexity and predictive performance. The results suggest the extension leads to extracting simpler graphs without scarifying predictive precision.


Distribution-Aware Sampling and Weighted Model Counting for SAT

AAAI Conferences

Given a CNF formula and a weight for each assignment of values tovariables, two natural problems are weighted model counting anddistribution-aware sampling of satisfying assignments. Both problems have a wide variety of important applications. Due to the inherentcomplexity of the exact versions of the problems, interest has focusedon solving them approximately. Prior work in this area scaled only tosmall problems in practice, or failed to provide strong theoreticalguarantees, or employed a computationally-expensive most-probable-explanation ({\MPE}) queries that assumes prior knowledge of afactored representation of the weight distribution. We identify a novel parameter,\emph{tilt}, which is the ratio of the maximum weight of satisfying assignment to minimum weightof satisfying assignment and present anovel approach that works with a black-box oracle for weights ofassignments and requires only an {\NP}-oracle (in practice, a {\SAT}-solver) to solve both thecounting and sampling problems when the tilt is small. Our approach provides strong theoretical guarantees, and scales toproblems involving several thousand variables. We also show that theassumption of small tilt can be significantly relaxed while improving computational efficiency if a factored representation of the weights is known.


Robust Distance Metric Learning in the Presence of Label Noise

AAAI Conferences

Many distance learning algorithms have been developed in recent years. However, few of them consider the problem when the class labels of training data are noisy, and this may lead to serious performance deterioration. In this paper, we present a robust distance learning method in the presence of label noise, by extending a previous non-parametric discriminative distance learning algorithm, i.e., Neighbourhood Components Analysis (NCA). Particularly, we analyze the effect of label noise on the derivative of likelihood with respect to the transformation matrix, and propose to model the conditional probability of the true label of each point so as to reduce that effect. The model is then optimized within the EM framework, with additional regularization used to avoid overfitting. Our experiments on several UCI datasets and a real dataset with unknown noise patterns show that the proposed RNCA is more tolerant to class label noise compared to the original NCA method.


Discovering Better AAAI Keywords via Clustering with Community-Sourced Constraints

AAAI Conferences

Selecting good conference keywords is important because they often determine the composition of review committees and hence which papers are reviewed by whom. But presently conference keywords are generated in an ad-hoc manner by a small set of conference organizers. This approach is plainly not ideal. There is no guarantee, for example, that the generated keyword set aligns with what the community is actually working on and submitting to the conference in a given year. This is especially true in fast moving fields such as AI. The problem is exacerbated by the tendency of organizers to draw heavily on preceding years' keyword lists when generating a new set. Rather than a select few ordaining a keyword set that that represents AI at large, it would be preferable to generate these keywords more directly from the data, with input from research community members. To this end, we solicited feedback from seven AAAI PC members regarding a previously existing keyword set and used these 'community-sourced constraints' to inform a clustering over the abstracts of all submissions to AAAI 2013. We show that the keywords discovered via this data-driven, human-in-the-loop method are at least as preferred (by AAAI PC members) as 2013's manually generated set, and that they include categories previously overlooked by organizers. Many of the discovered terms were used for this year's conference.


Calibration-Free BCI Based Control

AAAI Conferences

Recent works have explored the use of brain signals to directly control virtual and robotic agents in sequential tasks. So far in such brain-computer interfaces (BCI), an explicit calibration phase was required to build a decoder that translates raw electroencephalography (EEG) signals from the brain of each user into meaningful instructions. This paper proposes a method that removes the calibration phase, and allows a user to control an agent to solve a sequential task. The proposed method assumes a distribution of possible tasks, and infers the interpretation of EEG signals and the task by selecting the hypothesis which best explains the history of interaction. We introduce a measure of uncertainty on the task and on the EEG signal interpretation to act as an exploratory bonus for a planning strategy. This speeds up learning by guiding the system to regions that better disambiguate among task hypotheses. We report experiments where four users use BCI to control an agent on a virtual world to reach a target without any previous calibration process.


A Knowledge Compilation Map for Ordered Real-Valued Decision Diagrams

AAAI Conferences

Valued decision diagrams (VDDs) are data structures that represent functions mapping variable-value assignments to non-negative real numbers. They prove useful to compile cost functions, utility functions, or probability distributions. While the complexity of some queries (notably optimization) and transformations (notably conditioning) on VDD languages has been known for some time, there remain many significant queries and transformations, such as the various kinds of cuts, marginalizations, and combinations, the complexity of which has not been identified so far. This paper contributes to filling this gap and completing previous results about the time and space efficiency of VDD languages, thus leading to a knowledge compilation map for real-valued functions. Our results show that many tasks that are hard on valued CSPs are actually tractable on VDDs.