Multi-output inference tasks, such as multi-label classification, have become increasingly important in recent years. A popular method for multi-label classification is classifier chains, in which the predictions of individual classifiers are cascaded along a chain, thus taking into account inter-label dependencies and improving the overall performance. Several varieties of classifier chain methods have been introduced, and many of them perform very competitively across a wide range of benchmark datasets. However, scalability limitations become apparent on larger datasets when modeling a fully-cascaded chain. In particular, the methods' strategies for discovering and modeling a good chain structure constitutes a mayor computational bottleneck. In this paper, we present the classifier trellis (CT) method for scalable multi-label classification. We compare CT with several recently proposed classifier chain methods to show that it occupies an important niche: it is highly competitive on standard multi-label problems, yet it can also scale up to thousands or even tens of thousands of labels.

We study the Bayesian model averaging approach to learning Bayesian network structures (DAGs) from data. We develop new algorithms including the first algorithm that is able to efficiently sample DAGs according to the exact structure posterior. The DAG samples can then be used to construct estimators for the posterior of any feature. We theoretically prove good properties of our estimators and empirically show that our estimators considerably outperform the estimators from the previous state-of-the-art methods.

While computer and communication technologies have provided effective means to scale up many aspects of education, the submission and grading of assessments such as homework assignments and tests remains a weak link. In this paper, we study the problem of automatically grading the kinds of open response mathematical questions that figure prominently in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) courses. Our data-driven framework for mathematical language processing (MLP) leverages solution data from a large number of learners to evaluate the correctness of their solutions, assign partial-credit scores, and provide feedback to each learner on the likely locations of any errors. MLP takes inspiration from the success of natural language processing for text data and comprises three main steps. First, we convert each solution to an open response mathematical question into a series of numerical features. Second, we cluster the features from several solutions to uncover the structures of correct, partially correct, and incorrect solutions. We develop two different clustering approaches, one that leverages generic clustering algorithms and one based on Bayesian nonparametrics. Third, we automatically grade the remaining (potentially large number of) solutions based on their assigned cluster and one instructor-provided grade per cluster. As a bonus, we can track the cluster assignment of each step of a multistep solution and determine when it departs from a cluster of correct solutions, which enables us to indicate the likely locations of errors to learners. We test and validate MLP on real-world MOOC data to demonstrate how it can substantially reduce the human effort required in large-scale educational platforms.

Identifying and understanding modular organizations is centrally important in the study of complex systems. Several approaches to this problem have been advanced, many framed in information-theoretic terms. Our treatment starts from the complementary point of view of statistical modeling and prediction of dynamical systems. It is known that for finite amounts of training data, simpler models can have greater predictive power than more complex ones. We use the trade-off between model simplicity and predictive accuracy to generate optimal multiscale decompositions of dynamical networks into weakly-coupled, simple modules. State-dependent and causal versions of our method are also proposed.

The parsimonious Gaussian mixture models, which exploit an eigenvalue decomposition of the group covariance matrices of the Gaussian mixture, have shown their success in particular in cluster analysis. Their estimation is in general performed by maximum likelihood estimation and has also been considered from a parametric Bayesian prospective. We propose new Dirichlet Process Parsimonious mixtures (DPPM) which represent a Bayesian nonparametric formulation of these parsimonious Gaussian mixture models. The proposed DPPM models are Bayesian nonparametric parsimonious mixture models that allow to simultaneously infer the model parameters, the optimal number of mixture components and the optimal parsimonious mixture structure from the data. We develop a Gibbs sampling technique for maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation of the developed DPMM models and provide a Bayesian model selection framework by using Bayes factors. We apply them to cluster simulated data and real data sets, and compare them to the standard parsimonious mixture models. The obtained results highlight the effectiveness of the proposed nonparametric parsimonious mixture models as a good nonparametric alternative for the parametric parsimonious models.

Using a Bayesian approach, we consider the problem of recovering sparse signals under additive sparse and dense noise. Typically, sparse noise models outliers, impulse bursts or data loss. To handle sparse noise, existing methods simultaneously estimate the sparse signal of interest and the sparse noise of no interest. For estimating the sparse signal, without the need of estimating the sparse noise, we construct a robust Relevance Vector Machine (RVM). In the RVM, sparse noise and ever present dense noise are treated through a combined noise model. The precision of combined noise is modeled by a diagonal matrix. We show that the new RVM update equations correspond to a non-symmetric sparsity inducing cost function. Further, the combined modeling is found to be computationally more efficient. We also extend the method to block-sparse signals and noise with known and unknown block structures. Through simulations, we show the performance and computation efficiency of the new RVM in several applications: recovery of sparse and block sparse signals, housing price prediction and image denoising.

The one-class classification problem is a well-known research endeavor in pattern recognition. The problem is also known under different names, such as outlier and novelty/anomaly detection. The core of the problem consists in modeling and recognizing patterns belonging only to a so-called target class. All other patterns are termed non-target, and therefore they should be recognized as such. In this paper, we propose a novel one-class classification system that is based on an interplay of different techniques. Primarily, we follow a dissimilarity representation based approach; we embed the input data into the dissimilarity space by means of an appropriate parametric dissimilarity measure. This step allows us to process virtually any type of data. The dissimilarity vectors are then represented through a weighted Euclidean graphs, which we use to (i) determine the entropy of the data distribution in the dissimilarity space, and at the same time (ii) derive effective decision regions that are modeled as clusters of vertices. Since the dissimilarity measure for the input data is parametric, we optimize its parameters by means of a global optimization scheme, which considers both mesoscopic and structural characteristics of the data represented through the graphs. The proposed one-class classifier is designed to provide both hard (Boolean) and soft decisions about the recognition of test patterns, allowing an accurate description of the classification process. We evaluate the performance of the system on different benchmarking datasets, containing either feature-based or structured patterns. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed technique.

This paper studies identifiability and convergence behaviors for parameters of multiple types in finite mixtures, and the effects of model fitting with extra mixing components. First, we present a general theory for strong identifiability, which extends from the previous work of Nguyen [2013] and Chen [1995] to address a broad range of mixture models and to handle matrix-variate parameters. These models are shown to share the same Wasserstein distance based optimal rates of convergence for the space of mixing distributions --- $n^{-1/2}$ under $W_1$ for the exact-fitted and $n^{-1/4}$ under $W_2$ for the over-fitted setting, where $n$ is the sample size. This theory, however, is not applicable to several important model classes, including location-scale multivariate Gaussian mixtures, shape-scale Gamma mixtures and location-scale-shape skew-normal mixtures. The second part of this work is devoted to demonstrating that for these "weakly identifiable" classes, algebraic structures of the density family play a fundamental role in determining convergence rates of the model parameters, which display a very rich spectrum of behaviors. For instance, the optimal rate of parameter estimation in an over-fitted location-covariance Gaussian mixture is precisely determined by the order of a solvable system of polynomial equations --- these rates deteriorate rapidly as more extra components are added to the model. The established rates for a variety of settings are illustrated by a simulation study.

The spectral energy distribution (SED) is a relatively easy way for astronomers to distinguish between different astronomical objects such as galaxies, black holes, and stellar objects. By comparing the observations from a source at different frequencies with template models, astronomers are able to infer the type of this observed object. In this paper, we take a Bayesian model averaging perspective to learn astronomical objects, employing a Bayesian nonparametric approach to accommodate the deviation from convex combinations of known log-SEDs. To effectively use telescope time for observations, we then study Bayesian nonparametric sequential experimental design without conjugacy, in which we use sequential Monte Carlo as an efficient tool to maximize the volume of information stored in the posterior distribution of the parameters of interest. A new technique for performing inferences in log-Gaussian Cox processes called the Poisson log-normal approximation is also proposed. Simulations show the speed, accuracy, and usefulness of our method. While the strategy we propose in this paper is brand new in the astronomy literature, the inferential techniques developed apply to more general nonparametric sequential experimental design problems.

Coherent reasoning under uncertainty can be represented in a very general manner by coherent sets of desirable gambles. In a context that does not allow for indecision, this leads to an approach that is mathematically equivalent to working with coherent conditional probabilities. If we do allow for indecision, this leads to a more general foundation for coherent (imprecise-)probabilistic inference. In this framework, and for a given finite category set, coherent predictive inference under exchangeability can be represented using Bernstein coherent cones of multivariate polynomials on the simplex generated by this category set. This is a powerful generalisation of de Finetti's Representation Theorem allowing for both imprecision and indecision. We define an inference system as a map that associates a Bernstein coherent cone of polynomials with every finite category set. Many inference principles encountered in the literature can then be interpreted, and represented mathematically, as restrictions on such maps. We discuss, as particular examples, two important inference principles: representation insensitivitya strengthened version of Walley's representation invarianceand specificity. We show that there is an infinity of inference systems that satisfy these two principles, amongst which we discuss in particular the skeptically cautious inference system, the inference systems corresponding to (a modified version of) Walley and Bernard's Imprecise Dirichlet Multinomial Models (IDMM), the skeptical IDMM inference systems, and the Haldane inference system. We also prove that the latter produces the same posterior inferences as would be obtained using Haldane's improper prior, implying that there is an infinity of proper priors that produce the same coherent posterior inferences as Haldane's improper one. Finally, we impose an additional inference principle that allows us to characterise uniquely the immediate predictions for the IDMM inference systems.