We consider reinforcement learning in parameterized Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), where the parameterization may induce correlation across transition probabilities or rewards. Consequently, observing a particular state transition might yield useful information about other, unobserved, parts of the MDP. We present a version of Thompson sampling for parameterized reinforcement learning problems, and derive a frequentist regret bound for priors over general parameter spaces. The result shows that the number of instants where suboptimal actions are chosen scales logarithmically with time, with high probability. It holds for prior distributions that put significant probability near the true model, without any additional, specific closed-form structure such as conjugate or product-form priors. The constant factor in the logarithmic scaling encodes the information complexity of learning the MDP in terms of the Kullback-Leibler geometry of the parameter space.

Traditional Relational Topic Models provide a way to discover the hidden topics from a document network. Many theoretical and practical tasks, such as dimensional reduction, document clustering, link prediction, benefit from this revealed knowledge. However, existing relational topic models are based on an assumption that the number of hidden topics is known in advance, and this is impractical in many real-world applications. Therefore, in order to relax this assumption, we propose a nonparametric relational topic model in this paper. Instead of using fixed-dimensional probability distributions in its generative model, we use stochastic processes. Specifically, a gamma process is assigned to each document, which represents the topic interest of this document. Although this method provides an elegant solution, it brings additional challenges when mathematically modeling the inherent network structure of typical document network, i.e., two spatially closer documents tend to have more similar topics. Furthermore, we require that the topics are shared by all the documents. In order to resolve these challenges, we use a subsampling strategy to assign each document a different gamma process from the global gamma process, and the subsampling probabilities of documents are assigned with a Markov Random Field constraint that inherits the document network structure. Through the designed posterior inference algorithm, we can discover the hidden topics and its number simultaneously. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world network datasets demonstrate the capabilities of learning the hidden topics and, more importantly, the number of topics.

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) are likelihood-free Monte Carlo methods. ABC methods use a comparison between simulated data, using different parameters drew from a prior distribution, and observed data. This comparison process is based on computing a distance between the summary statistics from the simulated data and the observed data. For complex models, it is usually difficult to define a methodology for choosing or constructing the summary statistics. Recently, a nonparametric ABC has been proposed, that uses a dissimilarity measure between discrete distributions based on empirical kernel embeddings as an alternative for summary statistics. The nonparametric ABC outperforms other methods including ABC, kernel ABC or synthetic likelihood ABC. However, it assumes that the probability distributions are discrete, and it is not robust when dealing with few observations. In this paper, we propose to apply kernel embeddings using an smoother density estimator or Parzen estimator for comparing the empirical data distributions, and computing the ABC posterior. Synthetic data and real data were used to test the Bayesian inference of our method. We compare our method with respect to state-of-the-art methods, and demonstrate that our method is a robust estimator of the posterior distribution in terms of the number of observations.

Incorporating the side information of text corpus, i.e., authors, time stamps, and emotional tags, into the traditional text mining models has gained significant interests in the area of information retrieval, statistical natural language processing, and machine learning. One branch of these works is the so-called Author Topic Model (ATM), which incorporates the authors's interests as side information into the classical topic model. However, the existing ATM needs to predefine the number of topics, which is difficult and inappropriate in many real-world settings. In this paper, we propose an Infinite Author Topic (IAT) model to resolve this issue. Instead of assigning a discrete probability on fixed number of topics, we use a stochastic process to determine the number of topics from the data itself. To be specific, we extend a gamma-negative binomial process to three levels in order to capture the author-document-keyword hierarchical structure. Furthermore, each document is assigned a mixed gamma process that accounts for the multi-author's contribution towards this document. An efficient Gibbs sampling inference algorithm with each conditional distribution being closed-form is developed for the IAT model. Experiments on several real-world datasets show the capabilities of our IAT model to learn the hidden topics, authors' interests on these topics and the number of topics simultaneously.

We consider large-scale studies in which it is of interest to test a very large number of hypotheses, and then to estimate the effect sizes corresponding to the rejected hypotheses. For instance, this setting arises in the analysis of gene expression or DNA sequencing data. However, naive estimates of the effect sizes suffer from selection bias, i.e., some of the largest naive estimates are large due to chance alone. Many authors have proposed methods to reduce the effects of selection bias under the assumption that the naive estimates of the effect sizes are independent. Unfortunately, when the effect size estimates are dependent, these existing techniques can have very poor performance, and in practice there will often be dependence. We propose an estimator that adjusts for selection bias under a recently-proposed frequentist framework, without the independence assumption. We study some properties of the proposed estimator, and illustrate that it outperforms past proposals in a simulation study and on two gene expression data sets.

The application of compressive sensing (CS) to structural health monitoring is an emerging research topic. The basic idea in CS is to use a specially-designed wireless sensor to sample signals that are sparse in some basis (e.g. wavelet basis) directly in a compressed form, and then to reconstruct (decompress) these signals accurately using some inversion algorithm after transmission to a central processing unit. However, most signals in structural health monitoring are only approximately sparse, i.e. only a relatively small number of the signal coefficients in some basis are significant, but the other coefficients are usually not exactly zero. In this case, perfect reconstruction from compressed measurements is not expected. A new Bayesian CS algorithm is proposed in which robust treatment of the uncertain parameters is explored, including integration over the prediction-error precision parameter to remove it as a "nuisance" parameter. The performance of the new CS algorithm is investigated using compressed data from accelerometers installed on a space-frame structure and on a cable-stayed bridge. Compared with other state-of-the-art CS methods including our previously-published Bayesian method which uses MAP (maximum a posteriori) estimation of the prediction-error precision parameter, the new algorithm shows superior performance in reconstruction robustness and posterior uncertainty quantification. Furthermore, our method can be utilized for recovery of lost data during wireless transmission, regardless of the level of sparseness in the signal.

We aim to reduce the burden of programming and deploying autonomous systems to work in concert with people in time-critical domains such as military field operations and disaster response. Deployment plans for these operations are frequently negotiated on-the-fly by teams of human planners. A human operator then translates the agreed-upon plan into machine instructions for the robots. We present an algorithm that reduces this translation burden by inferring the final plan from a processed form of the human team's planning conversation. Our hybrid approach combines probabilistic generative modeling with logical plan validation used to compute a highly structured prior over possible plans, enabling us to overcome the challenge of performing inference over a large solution space with only a small amount of noisy data from the team planning session. We validate the algorithm through human subject experimentations and show that it is able to infer a human team's final plan with 86% accuracy on average. We also describe a robot demonstration in which two people plan and execute a first-response collaborative task with a PR2 robot. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to integrate a logical planning technique within a generative model to perform plan inference.

Prior design is one of the most important problems in both statistics and machine learning. The cross validation (CV) and the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) are predictive measures of the Bayesian estimation, however, it has been difficult to apply them to find the optimal prior because their mathematical properties in prior evaluation have been unknown and the region of the hyperparameters is too wide to be examined. In this paper, we derive a new formula by which the theoretical relation among CV, WAIC, and the generalization loss is clarified and the optimal hyperparameter can be directly found. By the formula, three facts are clarified about predictive prior design. Firstly, CV and WAIC have the same second order asymptotic expansion, hence they are asymptotically equivalent to each other as the optimizer of the hyperparameter. Secondly, the hyperparameter which minimizes CV or WAIC makes the average generalization loss to be minimized asymptotically but does not the random generalization loss. And lastly, by using the mathematical relation between priors, the variances of the optimized hyperparameters by CV and WAIC are made smaller with small computational costs. Also we show that the optimized hyperparameter by DIC or the marginal likelihood does not minimize the average or random generalization loss in general.

This paper is concerned about sparse, continuous frequency estimation in line spectral estimation, and focused on developing gridless sparse methods which overcome grid mismatches and correspond to limiting scenarios of existing grid-based approaches, e.g., $\ell_1$ optimization and SPICE, with an infinitely dense grid. We generalize AST (atomic-norm soft thresholding) to the case of nonconsecutively sampled data (incomplete data) inspired by recent atomic norm based techniques. We present a gridless version of SPICE (gridless SPICE, or GLS), which is applicable to both complete and incomplete data without the knowledge of noise level. We further prove the equivalence between GLS and atomic norm-based techniques under different assumptions of noise. Moreover, we extend GLS to a systematic framework consisting of model order selection and robust frequency estimation, and present feasible algorithms for AST and GLS. Numerical simulations are provided to validate our theoretical analysis and demonstrate performance of our methods compared to existing ones.

We focus on an interpolation method referred to Bayesian reconstruction in this paper. Whereas in standard interpolation methods missing data are interpolated deterministically, in Bayesian reconstruction, missing data are interpolated probabilistically using a Bayesian treatment. In this paper, we address the framework of Bayesian reconstruction and its application to the traffic data reconstruction problem in the field of traffic engineering. In the latter part of this paper, we describe the evaluation of the statistical performance of our Bayesian traffic reconstruction model using a statistical mechanical approach and clarify its statistical behavior.