Mixture modelling involves explaining some observed evidence using a combination of probability distributions. The crux of the problem is the inference of an optimal number of mixture components and their corresponding parameters. This paper discusses unsupervised learning of mixture models using the Bayesian Minimum Message Length (MML) criterion. To demonstrate the effectiveness of search and inference of mixture parameters using the proposed approach, we select two key probability distributions, each handling fundamentally different types of data: the multivariate Gaussian distribution to address mixture modelling of data distributed in Euclidean space, and the multivariate von Mises-Fisher (vMF) distribution to address mixture modelling of directional data distributed on a unit hypersphere. The key contributions of this paper, in addition to the general search and inference methodology, include the derivation of MML expressions for encoding the data using multivariate Gaussian and von Mises-Fisher distributions, and the analytical derivation of the MML estimates of the parameters of the two distributions. Our approach is tested on simulated and real world data sets. For instance, we infer vMF mixtures that concisely explain experimentally determined three-dimensional protein conformations, providing an effective null model description of protein structures that is central to many inference problems in structural bioinformatics. The experimental results demonstrate that the performance of our proposed search and inference method along with the encoding schemes improve on the state of the art mixture modelling techniques.

We consider the problem of noisy 1-bit matrix completion under an exact rank constraint on the true underlying matrix $M^*$. Instead of observing a subset of the noisy continuous-valued entries of a matrix $M^*$, we observe a subset of noisy 1-bit (or binary) measurements generated according to a probabilistic model. We consider constrained maximum likelihood estimation of $M^*$, under a constraint on the entry-wise infinity-norm of $M^*$ and an exact rank constraint. This is in contrast to previous work which has used convex relaxations for the rank. We provide an upper bound on the matrix estimation error under this model. Compared to the existing results, our bound has faster convergence rate with matrix dimensions when the fraction of revealed 1-bit observations is fixed, independent of the matrix dimensions. We also propose an iterative algorithm for solving our nonconvex optimization with a certificate of global optimality of the limiting point. This algorithm is based on low rank factorization of $M^*$. We validate the method on synthetic and real data with improved performance over existing methods.

We consider the problem of approximate Bayesian inference in log-supermodular models. These models encompass regular pairwise MRFs with binary variables, but allow to capture high-order interactions, which are intractable for existing approximate inference techniques such as belief propagation, mean field, and variants. We show that a recently proposed variational approach to inference in log-supermodular models -L-FIELD- reduces to the widely-studied minimum norm problem for submodular minimization. This insight allows to leverage powerful existing tools, and hence to solve the variational problem orders of magnitude more efficiently than previously possible. We then provide another natural interpretation of L-FIELD, demonstrating that it exactly minimizes a specific type of R\'enyi divergence measure. This insight sheds light on the nature of the variational approximations produced by L-FIELD. Furthermore, we show how to perform parallel inference as message passing in a suitable factor graph at a linear convergence rate, without having to sum up over all the configurations of the factor. Finally, we apply our approach to a challenging image segmentation task. Our experiments confirm scalability of our approach, high quality of the marginals, and the benefit of incorporating higher-order potentials.

This paper deals with the binary classification task when the target class has the lower probability of occurrence. In such situation, it is not possible to build a powerful classifier by using standard methods such as logistic regression, classification tree, discriminant analysis, etc. To overcome this short-coming of these methods which yield classifiers with low sensibility, we tackled the classification problem here through an approach based on the association rules learning. This approach has the advantage of allowing the identification of the patterns that are well correlated with the target class. Association rules learning is a well known method in the area of data-mining. It is used when dealing with large database for unsupervised discovery of local patterns that expresses hidden relationships between input variables. In considering association rules from a supervised learning point of view, a relevant set of weak classifiers is obtained from which one derives a classifier that performs well.

Dempster-Shafer evidence theory is an efficient mathematical tool to deal with uncertain information. In that theory, basic probability assignment (BPA) is the basic element for the expression and inference of uncertainty. Decision-making based on BPA is still an open issue in Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. In this paper, a novel approach of transforming basic probability assignments to probabilities is proposed based on Deng entropy which is a new measure for the uncertainty of BPA. The principle of the proposed method is to minimize the difference of uncertainties involving in the given BPA and obtained probability distribution. Numerical examples are given to show the proposed approach.

A generative Bayesian model is developed for deep (multi-layer) convolutional dictionary learning. A novel probabilistic pooling operation is integrated into the deep model, yielding efficient bottom-up and top-down probabilistic learning. After learning the deep convolutional dictionary, testing is implemented via deconvolutional inference. To speed up this inference, a new statistical approach is proposed to project the top-layer dictionary elements to the data level. Following this, only one layer of deconvolution is required during testing. Experimental results demonstrate powerful capabilities of the model to learn multi-layer features from images. Excellent classification results are obtained on both the MNIST and Caltech 101 datasets.

In reinforcement learning, the goal is to seek rewards and avoid punishments. A simple scalar captures the value of a state or of taking an action, where expected future rewards increase and punishments decrease this quantity. Naturally an agent should learn to predict this quantity to take beneficial actions, and many value function approximators exist for this purpose. In the present work, however, we show how value function approximators can cause confusion between predictors of an outcome of one valence (e.g., a signal of reward) and the inhibitor of the opposite valence (e.g., a signal canceling expectation of punishment). We show this to be a problem for both linear and non-linear value function approximators, especially when the amount of data (or experience) is limited. We propose and evaluate a simple resolution: to instead predict reward and punishment values separately, and rectify and add them to get the value needed for decision making. We evaluate several function approximators in this slightly different value function approximation architecture and show that this approach is able to circumvent the confusion and thereby achieve lower value-prediction errors.

In this letter, we address sparse signal recovery using spike and slab priors. In particular, we focus on a Bayesian framework where sparsity is enforced on reconstruction coefficients via probabilistic priors. The optimization resulting from spike and slab prior maximization is known to be a hard non-convex problem, and existing solutions involve simplifying assumptions and/or relaxations. We propose an approach called Iterative Convex Refinement (ICR) that aims to solve the aforementioned optimization problem directly allowing for greater generality in the sparse structure. Essentially, ICR solves a sequence of convex optimization problems such that sequence of solutions converges to a sub-optimal solution of the original hard optimization problem. We propose two versions of our algorithm: a.) an unconstrained version, and b.) with a non-negativity constraint on sparse coefficients, which may be required in some real-world problems. Experimental validation is performed on both synthetic data and for a real-world image recovery problem, which illustrates merits of ICR over state of the art alternatives.

The natural habitat of most Bayesian methods is data represented by exchangeable sequences of observations, for which de Finetti's theorem provides the theoretical foundation. Dirichlet process clustering, Gaussian process regression, and many other parametric and nonparametric Bayesian models fall within the remit of this framework; many problems arising in modern data analysis do not. This article provides an introduction to Bayesian models of graphs, matrices, and other data that can be modeled by random structures. We describe results in probability theory that generalize de Finetti's theorem to such data and discuss their relevance to nonparametric Bayesian modeling. With the basic ideas in place, we survey example models available in the literature; applications of such models include collaborative filtering, link prediction, and graph and network analysis. We also highlight connections to recent developments in graph theory and probability, and sketch the more general mathematical foundation of Bayesian methods for other types of data beyond sequences and arrays.

In view of the paradigm shift that makes science ever more data-driven, in this thesis we propose a synthesis method for encoding and managing large-scale deterministic scientific hypotheses as uncertain and probabilistic data. In the form of mathematical equations, hypotheses symmetrically relate aspects of the studied phenomena. For computing predictions, however, deterministic hypotheses can be abstracted as functions. We build upon Simon's notion of structural equations in order to efficiently extract the (so-called) causal ordering between variables, implicit in a hypothesis structure (set of mathematical equations). We show how to process the hypothesis predictive structure effectively through original algorithms for encoding it into a set of functional dependencies (fd's) and then performing causal reasoning in terms of acyclic pseudo-transitive reasoning over fd's. Such reasoning reveals important causal dependencies implicit in the hypothesis predictive data and guide our synthesis of a probabilistic database. Like in the field of graphical models in AI, such a probabilistic database should be normalized so that the uncertainty arisen from competing hypotheses is decomposed into factors and propagated properly onto predictive data by recovering its joint probability distribution through a lossless join. That is motivated as a design-theoretic principle for data-driven hypothesis management and predictive analytics. The method is applicable to both quantitative and qualitative deterministic hypotheses and demonstrated in realistic use cases from computational science.