Standard sparse pseudo-input approximations to the Gaussian process (GP) cannot handle complex functions well. Sparse spectrum alternatives attempt to answer this but are known to over-fit. We suggest the use of variational inference for the sparse spectrum approximation to avoid both issues. We model the covariance function with a finite Fourier series approximation and treat it as a random variable. The random covariance function has a posterior, on which a variational distribution is placed. The variational distribution transforms the random covariance function to fit the data. We study the properties of our approximate inference, compare it to alternative ones, and extend it to the distributed and stochastic domains. Our approximation captures complex functions better than standard approaches and avoids over-fitting.

Estimation of response functions is an important task in dynamic medical imaging. This task arises for example in dynamic renal scintigraphy, where impulse response or retention functions are estimated, or in functional magnetic resonance imaging where hemodynamic response functions are required. These functions can not be observed directly and their estimation is complicated because the recorded images are subject to superposition of underlying signals. Therefore, the response functions are estimated via blind source separation and deconvolution. Performance of this algorithm heavily depends on the used models of the response functions. Response functions in real image sequences are rather complicated and finding a suitable parametric form is problematic. In this paper, we study estimation of the response functions using non-parametric Bayesian priors. These priors were designed to favor desirable properties of the functions, such as sparsity or smoothness. These assumptions are used within hierarchical priors of the blind source separation and deconvolution algorithm. Comparison of the resulting algorithms with these priors is performed on synthetic dataset as well as on real datasets from dynamic renal scintigraphy. It is shown that flexible non-parametric priors improve estimation of response functions in both cases. MATLAB implementation of the resulting algorithms is freely available for download.

We propose a sequential learning policy for noisy discrete global optimization and ranking and selection (R\&S) problems with high dimensional sparse belief functions, where there are hundreds or even thousands of features, but only a small portion of these features contain explanatory power. We aim to identify the sparsity pattern and select the best alternative before the finite budget is exhausted. We derive a knowledge gradient policy for sparse linear models (KGSpLin) with group Lasso penalty. This policy is a unique and novel hybrid of Bayesian R\&S with frequentist learning. Particularly, our method naturally combines B-spline basis expansion and generalizes to the nonparametric additive model (KGSpAM) and functional ANOVA model. Theoretically, we provide the estimation error bounds of the posterior mean estimate and the functional estimate. Controlled experiments show that the algorithm efficiently learns the correct set of nonzero parameters even when the model is imbedded with hundreds of dummy parameters. Also it outperforms the knowledge gradient for a linear model.

Recently, there has been focus on penalized log-likelihood covariance estimation for sparse inverse covariance (precision) matrices. The penalty is responsible for inducing sparsity, and a very common choice is the convex $l_1$ norm. However, the best estimator performance is not always achieved with this penalty. The most natural sparsity promoting "norm" is the non-convex $l_0$ penalty but its lack of convexity has deterred its use in sparse maximum likelihood estimation. In this paper we consider non-convex $l_0$ penalized log-likelihood inverse covariance estimation and present a novel cyclic descent algorithm for its optimization. Convergence to a local minimizer is proved, which is highly non-trivial, and we demonstrate via simulations the reduced bias and superior quality of the $l_0$ penalty as compared to the $l_1$ penalty.

In relational databases, relations between objects, represented by binary matrices or tensors, may be arbitrarily complex. In practice however, there are recurring relational patterns such as transitive, permutation and sequential relationships, that seem to have a regular structure not captured by the classical notion of matrix rank or tensor rank. In this paper, we show that factorizing the relational tensor using a logistic or hinge loss instead of the more standard squared loss is more appropriate because it can accurately model many common relations with a fixed-size embedding that depends sub-linearly on the number of entities in the knowledge base. We illustrate this fact empirically by being able to efficiently predict missing links in several synthetic and real-world experiments. Further, we provide theoretical justification for logistic loss by studying its connection to a complexity measure from the field of information complexity called the sign rank. Sign rank is a more appropriate complexity measure as it has a low value for transitive, permutation, or sequential relationships, while being large for uniformly sampled binary matrices/tensors with a high probability.

High-level representations of uncertainty, such as probabilistic logics and programs, have been around for decades. Lifted inference was initially motivated by the need to make reasoning algorithms high-level as well. While the lifted inference community focused on machine learning applications, the high-level reasoning goal has received less attention recently. We revisit the idea and look at the capabilities of the latest techniques in lifted inference. This lets us conclude that lifted inference is strictly more powerful than propositional inference on high-level reasoning tasks.

Geotagged data can be used to describe regions in the world and discover local themes. However, not all data produced within a region is necessarily specifically descriptive of that area. To surface the content that is characteristic for a region, we present the geographical hierarchy model (GHM), a probabilistic model based on the assumption that data observed in a region is a random mixture of content that pertains to different levels of a hierarchy. We apply the GHM to a dataset of 8 million Flickr photos in order to discriminate between content (i.e., tags) that specifically characterizes a region (e.g., neighborhood) and content that characterizes surrounding areas or more general themes. Knowledge of the discriminative and non-discriminative terms used throughout the hierarchy enables us to quantify the uniqueness of a given region and to compare similar but distant regions. Our evaluation demonstrates that our model improves upon traditional Naive Bayes classification by 47% and hierarchical TF-IDF by 27%. We further highlight the differences and commonalities with human reasoning about what is locally characteristic for a neighborhood, distilled from ten interviews and a survey that covered themes such as time, events, and prior regional knowledge.

Distributed estimation, detection, and learning theory in networks have attracted much attention over the past decades [1], [2], [3], [4], with applications that range from sensor and robotic networks [5], [6], [7], [8], [9] to social and economic networks [10], [11], [12]. In these scenarios, agents in a network need to learn the value of a parameter that they may not be able to infer on their own, but the global spread of information in the network provides them with adequate data to learn the truth collectively. As a result, agents iteratively exchange information with their neighbors. For instance, in distributed sensor and robotic networks, agents use local diffusion to augment their imperfect observations with information from their neighbors and achieve consensus and coordination [13], [14]. Similarly, agents exchange beliefs in social networks to benefit from each other's observations and private information and learn the unknown state of the world [15], [16]. Existing literature on distributed learning focuses mostly on environments where individuals communicate at every round. Of particular relevance to our discussion are a host of algorithms that follow the non-Bayesian learning scheme in Jadbabaie et.

We provide an overview of the results we have attained in the last decade on the identification of quantum structures in cognition and, more specifically, in the formalization and representation of natural concepts. We firstly discuss the quantum foundational reasons that led us to investigate the mechanisms of formation and combination of concepts in human reasoning, starting from the empirically observed deviations from classical logical and probabilistic structures. We then develop our quantum-theoretic perspective in Fock space which allows successful modeling of various sets of cognitive experiments collected by different scientists, including ourselves. In addition, we formulate a unified explanatory hypothesis for the presence of quantum structures in cognitive processes, and discuss our recent discovery of further quantum aspects in concept combinations, namely, 'entanglement' and 'indistinguishability'. We finally illustrate perspectives for future research.

Probabilistic programming languages can simplify the development of machine learning techniques, but only if inference is sufficiently scalable. Unfortunately, Bayesian parameter estimation for highly coupled models such as regressions and state-space models still scales poorly; each MCMC transition takes linear time in the number of observations. This paper describes a sublinear-time algorithm for making Metropolis-Hastings (MH) updates to latent variables in probabilistic programs. The approach generalizes recently introduced approximate MH techniques: instead of subsampling data items assumed to be independent, it subsamples edges in a dynamically constructed graphical model. It thus applies to a broader class of problems and interoperates with other general-purpose inference techniques. Empirical results, including confirmation of sublinear per-transition scaling, are presented for Bayesian logistic regression, nonlinear classification via joint Dirichlet process mixtures, and parameter estimation for stochastic volatility models (with state estimation via particle MCMC). All three applications use the same implementation, and each requires under 20 lines of probabilistic code.