Gaussian process (GP) models form a core part of probabilistic machine learning. Considerable research effort has been made into attacking three issues with GP models: how to compute efficiently when the number of data is large; how to approximate the posterior when the likelihood is not Gaussian and how to estimate covariance function parameter posteriors. This paper simultaneously addresses these, using a variational approximation to the posterior which is sparse in support of the function but otherwise free-form. The result is a Hybrid Monte-Carlo sampling scheme which allows for a non-Gaussian approximation over the function values and covariance parameters simultaneously, with efficient computations based on inducing-point sparse GPs. Code to replicate each experiment in this paper will be available shortly.

Learning of low dimensional structure in multidimensional data is a canonical problem in machine learning. One common approach is to suppose that the observed data are close to a lower-dimensional smooth manifold. There are a rich variety of manifold learning methods available, which allow mapping of data points to the manifold. However, there is a clear lack of probabilistic methods that allow learning of the manifold along with the generative distribution of the observed data. The best attempt is the Gaussian process latent variable model (GP-LVM), but identifiability issues lead to poor performance. We solve these issues by proposing a novel Coulomb repulsive process (Corp) for locations of points on the manifold, inspired by physical models of electrostatic interactions among particles. Combining this process with a GP prior for the mapping function yields a novel electrostatic GP (electroGP) process. Focusing on the simple case of a one-dimensional manifold, we develop efficient inference algorithms, and illustrate substantially improved performance in a variety of experiments including filling in missing frames in video.

We present a Bayesian tensor factorization model for inferring latent group structures from dynamic pairwise interaction patterns. For decades, political scientists have collected and analyzed records of the form "country $i$ took action $a$ toward country $j$ at time $t$"---known as dyadic events---in order to form and test theories of international relations. We represent these event data as a tensor of counts and develop Bayesian Poisson tensor factorization to infer a low-dimensional, interpretable representation of their salient patterns. We demonstrate that our model's predictive performance is better than that of standard non-negative tensor factorization methods. We also provide a comparison of our variational updates to their maximum likelihood counterparts. In doing so, we identify a better way to form point estimates of the latent factors than that typically used in Bayesian Poisson matrix factorization. Finally, we showcase our model as an exploratory analysis tool for political scientists. We show that the inferred latent factor matrices capture interpretable multilateral relations that both conform to and inform our knowledge of international affairs.

Corrupting the input and hidden layers of deep neural networks (DNNs) with multiplicative noise, often drawn from the Bernoulli distribution (or 'dropout'), provides regularization that has significantly contributed to deep learning's success. However, understanding how multiplicative corruptions prevent overfitting has been difficult due to the complexity of a DNN's functional form. In this paper, we show that when a Gaussian prior is placed on a DNN's weights, applying multiplicative noise induces a Gaussian scale mixture, which can be reparameterized to circumvent the problematic likelihood function. Analysis can then proceed by using a type-II maximum likelihood procedure to derive a closed-form expression revealing how regularization evolves as a function of the network's weights. Results show that multiplicative noise forces weights to become either sparse or invariant to rescaling. We find our analysis has implications for model compression as it naturally reveals a weight pruning rule that starkly contrasts with the commonly used signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). While the SNR prunes weights with large variances, seeing them as noisy, our approach recognizes their robustness and retains them. We empirically demonstrate our approach has a strong advantage over the SNR heuristic and is competitive to retraining with soft targets produced from a teacher model.

We consider the problem of modelling noisy but highly symmetric shapes that can be viewed as hierarchies of whole-part relationships in which higher level objects are composed of transformed collections of lower level objects. To this end, we propose the stochastic wreath process, a fully generative probabilistic model of drawings. Following Leyton's "Generative Theory of Shape", we represent shapes as sequences of transformation groups composed through a wreath product. This representation emphasizes the maximization of transfer --- the idea that the most compact and meaningful representation of a given shape is achieved by maximizing the re-use of existing building blocks or parts. The proposed stochastic wreath process extends Leyton's theory by defining a probability distribution over geometric shapes in terms of noise processes that are aligned with the generative group structure of the shape. We propose an inference scheme for recovering the generative history of given images in terms of the wreath process using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and Approximate Bayesian Computation. In the context of sketching we demonstrate the feasibility and limitations of this approach on model-generated and real data.

Practitioners of Bayesian statistics have long depended on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to obtain samples from intractable posterior distributions. Unfortunately, MCMC algorithms are typically serial, and do not scale to the large datasets typical of modern machine learning. The recently proposed consensus Monte Carlo algorithm removes this limitation by partitioning the data and drawing samples conditional on each partition in parallel (Scott et al, 2013). A fixed aggregation function then combines these samples, yielding approximate posterior samples. We introduce variational consensus Monte Carlo (VCMC), a variational Bayes algorithm that optimizes over aggregation functions to obtain samples from a distribution that better approximates the target. The resulting objective contains an intractable entropy term; we therefore derive a relaxation of the objective and show that the relaxed problem is blockwise concave under mild conditions. We illustrate the advantages of our algorithm on three inference tasks from the literature, demonstrating both the superior quality of the posterior approximation and the moderate overhead of the optimization step. Our algorithm achieves a relative error reduction (measured against serial MCMC) of up to 39% compared to consensus Monte Carlo on the task of estimating 300-dimensional probit regression parameter expectations; similarly, it achieves an error reduction of 92% on the task of estimating cluster comembership probabilities in a Gaussian mixture model with 8 components in 8 dimensions. Furthermore, these gains come at moderate cost compared to the runtime of serial MCMC, achieving near-ideal speedup in some instances.

Bayesian predictive inference analyzes a dataset to make predictions about new observations. When a model does not match the data, predictive accuracy suffers. We develop population empirical Bayes (POP-EB), a hierarchical framework that explicitly models the empirical population distribution as part of Bayesian analysis. We introduce a new concept, the latent dataset, as a hierarchical variable and set the empirical population as its prior. This leads to a new predictive density that mitigates model mismatch. We efficiently apply this method to complex models by proposing a stochastic variational inference algorithm, called bumping variational inference (BUMP-VI). We demonstrate improved predictive accuracy over classical Bayesian inference in three models: a linear regression model of health data, a Bayesian mixture model of natural images, and a latent Dirichlet allocation topic model of scientific documents.

An active learner is given a class of models, a large set of unlabeled examples, and the ability to interactively query labels of a subset of these examples; the goal of the learner is to learn a model in the class that fits the data well. Previous theoretical work has rigorously characterized label complexity of active learning, but most of this work has focused on the PAC or the agnostic PAC model. In this paper, we shift our attention to a more general setting -- maximum likelihood estimation. Provided certain conditions hold on the model class, we provide a two-stage active learning algorithm for this problem. The conditions we require are fairly general, and cover the widely popular class of Generalized Linear Models, which in turn, include models for binary and multi-class classification, regression, and conditional random fields. We provide an upper bound on the label requirement of our algorithm, and a lower bound that matches it up to lower order terms. Our analysis shows that unlike binary classification in the realizable case, just a single extra round of interaction is sufficient to achieve near-optimal performance in maximum likelihood estimation. On the empirical side, the recent work in ~\cite{Zhang12} and~\cite{Zhang14} (on active linear and logistic regression) shows the promise of this approach.

We investigate the systematic mechanism for designing fast mixing Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms to sample from discrete point processes under the Dobrushin uniqueness condition for Gibbs measures. Discrete point processes are defined as probability distributions $\mu(S)\propto \exp(\beta f(S))$ over all subsets $S\in 2^V$ of a finite set $V$ through a bounded set function $f:2^V\rightarrow \mathbb{R}$ and a parameter $\beta>0$. A subclass of discrete point processes characterized by submodular functions (which include log-submodular distributions, submodular point processes, and determinantal point processes) has recently gained a lot of interest in machine learning and shown to be effective for modeling diversity and coverage. We show that if the set function (not necessarily submodular) displays a natural notion of decay of correlation, then, for $\beta$ small enough, it is possible to design fast mixing Markov chain Monte Carlo methods that yield error bounds on marginal approximations that do not depend on the size of the set $V$. The sufficient conditions that we derive involve a control on the (discrete) Hessian of set functions, a quantity that has not been previously considered in the literature. We specialize our results for submodular functions, and we discuss canonical examples where the Hessian can be easily controlled.

BayesPy is an open-source Python software package for performing variational Bayesian inference. It is based on the variational message passing framework and supports conjugate exponential family models. By removing the tedious task of implementing the variational Bayesian update equations, the user can construct models faster and in a less error-prone way. Simple syntax, flexible model construction and efficient inference make BayesPy suitable for both average and expert Bayesian users. It also supports some advanced methods such as stochastic and collapsed variational inference.