Cognitive modelling can discover the latent characteristics of examinees for predicting their performance (i.e. scores) on each problem. As cognitive modelling is important for numerous applications, e.g. personalized remedy recommendation, some solutions have been designed in the literature. However, the problem of extracting information from both objective and subjective problems to get more precise and interpretable cognitive analysis is still underexplored. To this end, we propose a fuzzy cognitive diagnosis framework (FuzzyCDF) for examinees' cognitive modelling with both objective and subjective problems. Specifically, to handle the partially correct responses on subjective problems, we first fuzzify the skill proficiency of examinees. Then, we combine fuzzy set theory and educational hypotheses to model the examinees' mastery on the problems. Further, we simulate the generation of examination scores by considering both slip and guess factors. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets prove that FuzzyCDF can predict examinee performance more effectively, and the output of FuzzyCDF is also interpretative.

We study the computational complexity of finding maximum a posteriori configurations in Bayesian networks whose probabilities are specified by logical formulas. This approach leads to a fine grained study in which local information such as context-sensitive independence and determinism can be considered. It also allows us to characterize more precisely the jump from tractability to NP-hardness and beyond, and to consider the complexity introduced by evidence alone.

We propose a new Bayesian model for reliable aggregatio of crowdsourced estimates of real-valued quantities in participatory sensing applications. Existing approaches focus on probabilistic modelling of user’s reliability as the key to accurate aggregation. However, these are either limited to estimating discrete quantities, or require a significant number of reports from each user to accurately model their reliability. To mitigate these issues, we adopt a community-based approach, which reduces the data required to reliably aggregate real-valued estimates, by leveraging correlations between the reporting behaviour of users belonging to different communities. As a result, our method is up to 16.6% more accurate than existing state-of-the-art methods and is up to 49% more effective under data sparsity when used to estimate Wi-Fi hotspot locations in a real-world crowdsourcing application.

Differentiation is an important inference method in Bayesian networks and intervention is a basic notion in causal Bayesian networks. In this paper, we reveal the connection between differentiation and intervention in Bayesian networks. We first encode an intervention as changing a conditional probabilistic table into a partial intervention table. We next introduce a jointree algorithm to compute the full atomic interventions of all nodes with respect to evidence in a Bayesian network. We further discover that an intervention has differential semantics if the intervention variables can reach the evidence in Bayesian networks and the output of the state-of-the-art algorithm is not the differentiation but the intervention of a Bayesian network if the differential nodes cannot reach any one of the evidence nodes. Finally, we present experimental results to demonstrate the efficiency of our algorithm to infer the causal effect in Bayesian networks.

The recent surge of interest in reasoning about probabilistic graphical models has led to the development of various techniques for probabilistic reasoning. Of these, techniques based on weighted model counting are particularly interesting since they can potentially leverage recent advances in unweighted model counting and in propositional satisfiability solving. In this paper, we present a new approach to weighted model counting via reduction to unweighted model counting. Our reduction, which is polynomial-time and preserves the normal form (CNF/DNF) of the input formula, allows us to exploit advances in unweighted model counting to solve weighted model counting instances. Experiments with weighted model counters built using our reduction indicate that these counters performs much better than a state-of-the-art weighted model counter

Distributed constraint optimization (DCOP) is an important framework for coordinated multiagent decision making. We address a practically useful variant of DCOP, called resource-constrained DCOP (RC-DCOP), which takes into account agents' consumption of shared limited resources. We present a promising new class of algorithm for RC-DCOPs by translating the underlying coordination problem to probabilistic inference. Using inference techniques such as expectation-maximization and convex optimization machinery, we develop a novel convergent message-passing algorithm for RC-DCOPs. Experiments on standard benchmarks show that our approach provides better quality than previous best DCOP algorithms and has much lower failure rate. Comparisons against an efficient centralized solver show that our approach provides near-optimal solutions, and is significantly faster on larger instances.

Exponential Random Graphs Models (ERGM) are common, simple statistical models for social network and other network structures. Unfortunately, inference and learning with them is hard even for small networks because their partition functions are intractable for precise computation. In this paper, we introduce a new quadratic time deterministic approximation to these partition functions. Our main insight enabling this advance is that subgraph statistics is sufficient to derive a lower bound for partition functions given that the model is not dominated by a few graphs. The proposed method differs from existing methods in its ways of exploiting asymptotic properties of subgraph statistics. Compared to the current Monte Carlo simulation based methods, the new method is scalable, stable, and precise enough for inference tasks.

Gaussian processes (GP) are powerful tools for probabilistic modeling purposes. They can be used to define prior distributions over latent functions in hierarchical Bayesian models. The prior over functions is defined implicitly by the mean and covariance function, which determine the smoothness and variability of the function. The inference can then be conducted directly in the function space by evaluating or approximating the posterior process. Despite their attractive theoretical properties GPs provide practical challenges in their implementation. GPstuff is a versatile collection of computational tools for GP models compatible with Linux and Windows MATLAB and Octave. It includes, among others, various inference methods, sparse approximations and tools for model assessment. In this work, we review these tools and demonstrate the use of GPstuff in several models.

Nicod's criterion states that observing a black raven is evidence for the hypothesis H that all ravens are black. We show that Solomonoff induction does not satisfy Nicod's criterion: there are time steps in which observing black ravens decreases the belief in H. Moreover, while observing any computable infinite string compatible with H, the belief in H decreases infinitely often when using the unnormalized Solomonoff prior, but only finitely often when using the normalized Solomonoff prior. We argue that the fault is not with Solomonoff induction; instead we should reject Nicod's criterion.

Bayesian optimization is an effective methodology for the global optimization of functions with expensive evaluations. It relies on querying a distribution over functions defined by a relatively cheap surrogate model. An accurate model for this distribution over functions is critical to the effectiveness of the approach, and is typically fit using Gaussian processes (GPs). However, since GPs scale cubically with the number of observations, it has been challenging to handle objectives whose optimization requires many evaluations, and as such, massively parallelizing the optimization. In this work, we explore the use of neural networks as an alternative to GPs to model distributions over functions. We show that performing adaptive basis function regression with a neural network as the parametric form performs competitively with state-of-the-art GP-based approaches, but scales linearly with the number of data rather than cubically. This allows us to achieve a previously intractable degree of parallelism, which we apply to large scale hyperparameter optimization, rapidly finding competitive models on benchmark object recognition tasks using convolutional networks, and image caption generation using neural language models.