Probabilistic graphical models, such as Bayesian networks, are intuitive and theoretically sound tools for modeling uncertainty. A major problem with applying Bayesian networks in practice is that it is hard to judge whether a model fits well a case that it is supposed to solve. One way of expressing a possible dissonance between a model and a case is the {\em surprise index}, proposed by Habbema, which expresses the degree of surprise by the evidence given the model. While this measure reflects the intuition that the probability of a case should be judged in the context of a model, it is computationally intractable. In this paper, we propose an efficient way of approximating the surprise index.

The updating is accomplished using Bayes'

How can robots fluently communicate with humans and have context-preserving conversation? It is the most momentous and crucial problem in robotics research, especially for service robots such as child-care robots. Here, we aim to develop a situated conversation system for child-care robots. The conversation system considers the current context between robots and children as well as the situation the child is in. The system consists of two parts. The first part tries to understand the context. This part uses the embedded sensors of robots to understand the context and wearable sensors of the child for getting information of the situation the child is in. The second part is to generate the situated conversation. In terms of the model, we designed a hierarchical Bayesian Network for the first part and a Hypernetwork model is used for the second part. We illustrate the application of communication with a child in a child-care service robots scenario. For this application, we collect wearable sensors’ data from the child and mother-child conversation data in daily life. Finally, we discuss our results and future works.

Procedural Content Generation (PCG) using machine learning is a fast growing area of research. Action Role Playing Game (ARPG) levels represent an interesting challenge for PCG due to their multi-tiered structure and nonlinearity. Previous work has used Bayes Nets (BN) to learn properties of the topological structure of levels from The Legend of Zelda. In this paper we describe a method for sampling these learned distributions to generate valid, playable level topologies. We carry this deeper and learn a sampleable representation of the individual rooms using Principal Component Analysis. We combine the two techniques and present a multi-scale machine learned technique for procedurally generating ARPG levels from a corpus of levels from The Legend of Zelda.

In this paper, we present the conceptual model of a realworld application of Markov Decision Processes to dam management. The idea is to demonstrate that it is possible to efficiently automate the construction of operation policies by modelling the problem as a sequential decision problem that can be easily solved using stochastic dynamic programming. We will explain the problem domain and provide an analysis of the resulting value and policy functions. We will also present a useful discussion about the issues that will appear when the conceptual model to be extended into a real-world application.

The growing need to analyze large collections of documents has led to great developments in topic modeling. Since documents are frequently associated with other related variables, such as labels or ratings, much interest has been placed on supervised topic models. However, the nature of most annotation tasks, prone to ambiguity and noise, often with high volumes of documents, deem learning under a single-annotator assumption unrealistic or unpractical for most real-world applications. In this paper, we propose a supervised topic model that accounts for the heterogeneity and biases among different annotators that are encountered in practice when learning from crowds. We develop an efficient stochastic variational inference algorithm that is able to scale to very large datasets, and we empirically demonstrate the advantages of the proposed model over state of the art approaches.

Smart decision making at the tactical level is important for Artificial Intelligence (AI) agents to perform well in the domain of real-time strategy (RTS) games. Winning battles is crucial in RTS games, and while humans can decide when and how to attack based on their experience, it is challenging for AI agents to estimate combat outcomes accurately. A few existing models address this problem in the game of StarCraft but present many restrictions, such as not modeling injured units, supporting only a small number of unit types, or being able to predict the winner of a fight but not the remaining army. Prediction using simulations is a popular method, but generally slow and requires extensive coding to model the game engine accurately. This paper introduces a model based on Lanchester's attrition laws which addresses the mentioned limitations while being faster than running simulations. Unit strength values are learned using maximum likelihood estimation from past recorded battles. We present experiments that use a StarCraft simulator for generating battles for both training and testing, and show that the model is capable of making accurate predictions. Furthermore, we implemented our method in a StarCraft bot that uses either this or traditional simulations to decide when to attack or to retreat. We present tournament results (against top bots from 2014 AIIDE competition) comparing the performances of the two versions, and show increased winning percentages for our method.

We consider a finite-pool data categorization scenario which requires exhaustively classifying a given set of examples with a limited budget. We adopt a hybrid human-machine approach which blends automatic machine learning with human labeling across a tiered workforce composed of domain experts and crowd workers. To effectively achieve high-accuracy labels over the instances in the pool at minimal cost, we develop a novel approach based on decision-theoretic active learning. On the important task of biomedical citation screening for systematic reviews, results on real data show that our method achieves consistent improvements over baseline strategies. To foster further research by others, we have made our data available online.

In this paper we address the following density estimation problem: given a number of relative similarity judgements over a set of items D, assign a density value p(x) to each item x in D. Our work is motivated by human computing applications where density can be interpreted e.g. as a measure of the rarity of an item. While humans are excellent at solving a range of different visual tasks, assessing absolute similarity (or distance) of two items (e.g. photographs) is difficult. Relative judgements of similarity, such as A is more similar to B than to C, on the other hand, are substantially easier to elicit from people. We provide two novel methods for density estimation that only use relative expressions of similarity. We give both theoretical justifications, as well as empirical evidence that the proposed methods produce good estimates.

Models for aggregating contributions by crowd workers have been shown to be challenged by the rise of task-specific biases or errors. Task-dependent errors in assessment may shift the majority opinion of even large numbers of workers to an incorrect answer. We introduce and evaluate probabilistic models that can detect and correct task-dependent bias automatically. First, we show how to build and use probabilistic graphical models for jointly modeling task features, workers' biases, worker contributions and ground truth answers of tasks so that task-dependent bias can be corrected. Second, we show how the approach can perform a type of transfer learning among workers to address the issue of annotation sparsity. We evaluate the models with varying complexity on a large data set collected from a citizen science project and show that the models are effective at correcting the task-dependent worker bias. Finally, we investigate the use of active learning to guide the acquisition of expert assessments to enable automatic detection and correction of worker bias.