In recent years, mixture cure models have gained increasing popularity in survival analysis as an alternative to the Cox proportional hazards model, particularly in settings where a subset of patients is considered cured. The proportional hazards mixture cure model is especially advantageous when the presence of a cured fraction can be reasonably assumed, providing a more accurate representation of long-term survival dynamics. In this study, we propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian framework for the semiparametric mixture cure model, which accommodates both the inclusion and exclusion of a frailty component, allowing for greater flexibility in capturing unobserved heterogeneity among patients. Samples from the posterior distribution are obtained using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, leveraging a hierarchical structure inspired by Bayesian Lasso. Comprehensive simulation studies are conducted across diverse scenarios to evaluate the performance and robustness of the proposed models. Bayesian model comparison and assessment are performed using various criteria. Finally, the proposed approaches are applied to two well-known datasets in the cure model literature: the E1690 melanoma trial and a colon cancer clinical trial.

This paper proposes a novel diffusion-based posterior sampling method within a plug-and-play (PnP) framework. Our approach constructs a probability transport from an easy-to-sample terminal distribution to the target posterior, using a warm-start strategy to initialize the particles. To approximate the posterior score, we develop a Monte Carlo estimator in which particles are generated using Langevin dynamics, avoiding the heuristic approximations commonly used in prior work. The score governing the Langevin dynamics is learned from data, enabling the model to capture rich structural features of the underlying prior distribution. On the theoretical side, we provide non-asymptotic error bounds, showing that the method converges even for complex, multi-modal target posterior distributions. These bounds explicitly quantify the errors arising from posterior score estimation, the warm-start initialization, and the posterior sampling procedure. Our analysis further clarifies how the prior score-matching error and the condition number of the Bayesian inverse problem influence overall performance. Finally, we present numerical experiments demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed method across a range of inverse problems.

Two pressing topics in the theory of deep learning are the interpretation of feature learning mechanisms and the determination of implicit bias of networks in the rich regime. Current theories of rich feature learning, often appear in the form of high-dimensional non-linear equations, which require computationally intensive numerical solutions. Given the many details that go into defining a deep learning problem, this complexity is a significant and often unavoidable challenge. Here, we propose a powerful heuristic route for predicting the data and width scales at which various patterns of feature learning emerge. This form of scale analysis is considerably simpler than exact theories and reproduces the scaling exponents of various known results. In addition, we make novel predictions on complex toy architectures, such as three-layer non-linear networks and attention heads, thus extending the scope of first-principle theories of deep learning.

Understanding how humans respond to uncertainty is critical for designing safe and effective physical human-robot interaction (pHRI), as physically working with robots introduces multiple sources of uncertainty, including trust, comfort, and perceived safety. Conventional pHRI control frameworks typically build on optimal control theory, which assumes that human actions minimize a cost function; however, human behavior under uncertainty often departs from such optimal patterns. To address this gap, additional understanding of human behavior under uncertainty is needed. This pilot study implemented a physically coupled target-reaching task in which the robot delivered assistance or disturbances with systematically varied probabilities (10\% to 90\%). Analysis of participants' force inputs and decision-making strategies revealed two distinct behavioral clusters: a "trade-off" group that modulated their physical responses according to disturbance likelihood, and an "always-compensate" group characterized by strong risk aversion irrespective of probability. These findings provide empirical evidence that human decision-making in pHRI is highly individualized and that the perception of probability can differ to its true value. Accordingly, the study highlights the need for more interpretable behavioral models, such as cumulative prospect theory (CPT), to more accurately capture these behaviors and inform the design of future adaptive robot controllers.

Humans interpret safety not as a binary signal but as a continuous, context- and spatially-dependent notion of risk. While risk is subjective, humans form rational mental models that guide action selection in dynamic environments. This work proposes a framework for extracting implicit human risk models by introducing a novel, semantically-conditioned and spatially-varying parametrization of risk, supervised directly from safe human demonstration videos and VLM common sense. Notably, we define risk through a Bayesian formulation. The prior is furnished by a pretrained vision-language model. In order to encourage the risk estimate to be more human aligned, a likelihood function modulates the prior to produce a relative metric of risk. Specifically, the likelihood is a learned ViT that maps pretrained features, to pixel-aligned risk values. Our pipeline ingests RGB images and a query object string, producing pixel-dense risk images. These images that can then be used as value-predictors in robot planning tasks or be projected into 3D for use in conventional trajectory optimization to produce human-like motion. This learned mapping enables generalization to novel objects and contexts, and has the potential to scale to much larger training datasets. In particular, the Bayesian framework that is introduced enables fast adaptation of our model to additional observations or common sense rules. We demonstrate that our proposed framework produces contextual risk that aligns with human preferences. Additionally, we illustrate several downstream applications of the model; as a value learner for visuomotor planners or in conjunction with a classical trajectory optimization algorithm. Our results suggest that our framework is a significant step toward enabling autonomous systems to internalize human-like risk. Code and results can be found at https://riskbayesian.github.io/bayesian_risk/.

Learning about the causal structure of the world is a fundamental problem for human cognition. Causal models and especially causal learning have proved to be difficult for large pretrained models using standard techniques of deep learning. In contrast, cognitive scientists have applied advances in our formal understanding of causation in computer science, particularly within the Causal Bayes Net formalism, to understand human causal learning. In the very different tradition of reinforcement learning, researchers have described an intrinsic reward signal called "empowerment" which maximizes mutual information between actions and their outcomes. "Empowerment" may be an important bridge between classical Bayesian causal learning and reinforcement learning and may help to characterize causal learning in humans and enable it in machines. If an agent learns an accurate causal world model, they will necessarily increase their empowerment, and increasing empowerment will lead to a more accurate causal world model. Empowerment may also explain distinctive features of childrens causal learning, as well as providing a more tractable computational account of how that learning is possible. In an empirical study, we systematically test how children and adults use cues to empowerment to infer causal relations, and design effective causal interventions.

In this paper, we examine the convergence landscape of multi-agent learning under uncertainty. Specifically, we analyze two stochastic models of regularized learning in continuous games -- one in continuous and one in discrete time with the aim of characterizing the long-run behavior of the induced sequence of play. In stark contrast to deterministic, full-information models of learning (or models with a vanishing learning rate), we show that the resulting dynamics do not converge in general. In lieu of this, we ask instead which actions are played more often in the long run, and by how much. We show that, in strongly monotone games, the dynamics of regularized learning may wander away from equilibrium infinitely often, but they always return to its vicinity in finite time (which we estimate), and their long-run distribution is sharply concentrated around a neighborhood thereof. We quantify the degree of this concentration, and we show that these favorable properties may all break down if the underlying game is not strongly monotone -- underscoring in this way the limits of regularized learning in the presence of persistent randomness and uncertainty.

Abstract: Reliable optimal control is challenging when the dynamics of a nonlinear system are unknown and only infrequent, noisy output measurements are available. This work addresses this setting of limited sensing by formulating a Bayesian prior over the continuous-time dynamics and latent state trajectory in state-space form and updating it through a targeted marginal Metropolis-Hastings sampler equipped with a numerical ODE integrator. The resulting posterior samples are used to formulate a scenario-based optimal control problem that accounts for both model and measurement uncertainty and is solved using standard nonlinear programming methods. The approach is validated in a numerical case study on glucose regulation using a Type 1 diabetes model. Keywords: Probabilistic and Bayesian methods for system identification, Nonlinear system identification, Time series modeling, Statistical inference, Learning methods for optimal control, Model predictive control, Data-driven control theory 1. INTRODUCTION Accurate dynamical models are fundamental for the predictive and optimal control of nonlinear systems. Although first-principles models may describe the general structure of many systems, important parameters or effects often remain unknown, limiting their direct use for control.

This report introduces a novel class of reasoning architectures, termed Quantum Circuit Reasoning Models (QCRM), which extend the concept of Variational Quantum Circuits (VQC) from energy minimization and classification tasks to structured logical inference and reasoning. We posit that fundamental quantum mechanical operations, superposition, entanglement, interference, and measurement, naturally map to essential reasoning primitives such as hypothesis branching, constraint propagation, consistency enforcement, and decision making. The resulting framework combines quantum-inspired computation with differentiable optimization, enabling reasoning to emerge as a process of amplitude evolution and interference-driven selection of self-consistent states. We develop the mathematical foundation of QCRM, define its parameterized circuit architecture, and show how logical rules can be encoded as unitary transformations over proposition-qubit states. We further formalize a training objective grounded in classical gradient descent over circuit parameters and discuss simulation-based implementations on classical hardware. Finally, we propose the Quantum Reasoning Layer (QRL) as a differentiable hybrid component for composable reasoning models applicable to scientific, biomedical, and chemical inference domains.

This paper develops a unified perspective on several stochastic optimal control formulations through the lens of Kullback-Leibler regularization. We propose a central problem that separates the KL penalties on policies and transitions, assigning them independent weights, thereby generalizing the standard trajectory-level KL-regularization commonly used in probabilistic and KL-regularized control. This generalized formulation acts as a generative structure allowing to recover various control problems. These include the classical Stochastic Optimal Control (SOC), Risk-Sensitive Optimal Control (RSOC), and their policy-based KL-regularized counterparts. The latter we refer to as soft-policy SOC and RSOC, facilitating alternative problems with tractable solutions. Beyond serving as regularized variants, we show that these soft-policy formulations majorize the original SOC and RSOC problem. This means that the regularized solution can be iterated to retrieve the original solution. Furthermore, we identify a structurally synchronized case of the risk-seeking soft-policy RSOC formulation, wherein the policy and transition KL-regularization weights coincide. Remarkably, this specific setting gives rise to several powerful properties such as a linear Bellman equation, path integral solution, and, compositionality, thereby extending these computationally favourable properties to a broad class of control problems.