We present a discriminative nonparametric latent feature relational model (LFRM) for link prediction to automatically infer the dimensionality of latent features. Under the generic RegBayes (regularized Bayesian inference) framework, we handily incorporate the prediction loss with probabilistic inference of a Bayesian model; set distinct regularization parameters for different types of links to handle the imbalance issue in real networks; and unify the analysis of both the smooth logistic log-loss and the piecewise linear hinge loss. For the nonconjugate posterior inference, we present a simple Gibbs sampler via data augmentation, without making restricting assumptions as done in variational methods. We further develop an approximate sampler using stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics to handle large networks with hundreds of thousands of entities and millions of links, orders of magnitude larger than what existing LFRM models can process. Extensive studies on various real networks show promising performance.

Our goal is to deploy a high-accuracy system starting with zero training examples. We consider an "on-the-job" setting, where as inputs arrive, we use real-time crowdsourcing to resolve uncertainty where needed and output our prediction when confident. As the model improves over time, the reliance on crowdsourcing queries decreases. We cast our setting as a stochastic game based on Bayesian decision theory, which allows us to balance latency, cost, and accuracy objectives in a principled way. Computing the optimal policy is intractable, so we develop an approximation based on Monte Carlo Tree Search. We tested our approach on three datasets---named-entity recognition, sentiment classification, and image classification. On the NER task we obtained more than an order of magnitude reduction in cost compared to full human annotation, while boosting performance relative to the expert provided labels. We also achieve a 8% F1 improvement over having a single human label the whole set, and a 28% F1 improvement over online learning.

Understanding a user's motivations provides valuable information beyond the ability to recommend items. Quite often this can be accomplished by perusing both ratings and review texts, since it is the latter where the reasoning for specific preferences is explicitly expressed. Unfortunately matrix factorization approaches to recommendation result in large, complex models that are difficult to interpret and give recommendations that are hard to clearly explain to users. In contrast, in this paper, we attack this problem through succinct additive co-clustering. We devise a novel Bayesian technique for summing co-clusterings of Poisson distributions. With this novel technique we propose a new Bayesian model for joint collaborative filtering of ratings and text reviews through a sum of simple co-clusterings. The simple structure of our model yields easily interpretable recommendations. Even with a simple, succinct structure, our model outperforms competitors in terms of predicting ratings with reviews.

There is renewed interest in formulating integration as a statistical inference problem, motivated by obtaining a full distribution over numerical error that can be propagated through subsequent computation. Current methods, such as Bayesian Quadrature, demonstrate impressive empirical performance but lack theoretical analysis. An important challenge is therefore to reconcile these probabilistic integrators with rigorous convergence guarantees. In this paper, we present the first probabilistic integrator that admits such theoretical treatment, called Frank-Wolfe Bayesian Quadrature (FWBQ). Under FWBQ, convergence to the true value of the integral is shown to be up to exponential and posterior contraction rates are proven to be up to super-exponential. In simulations, FWBQ is competitive with state-of-the-art methods and outperforms alternatives based on Frank-Wolfe optimisation. Our approach is applied to successfully quantify numerical error in the solution to a challenging Bayesian model choice problem in cellular biology.

Approximate inference in high-dimensional, discrete probabilistic models is a central problem in computational statistics and machine learning. This paper describes discrete particle variational inference (DPVI), a new approach that combines key strengths of Monte Carlo, variational and search-based techniques. DPVI is based on a novel family of particle-based variational approximations that can be fit using simple, fast, deterministic search techniques. Like Monte Carlo, DPVI can handle multiple modes, and yields exact results in a well-defined limit. Like unstructured mean-field, DPVI is based on optimizing a lower bound on the partition function; when this quantity is not of intrinsic interest, it facilitates convergence assessment and debugging. Like both Monte Carlo and combinatorial search, DPVI can take advantage of factorization, sequential structure, and custom search operators. This paper defines DPVI particle-based approximation family and partition function lower bounds, along with the sequential DPVI and local DPVI algorithm templates for optimizing them. DPVI is illustrated and evaluated via experiments on lattice Markov Random Fields, nonparametric Bayesian mixtures and block-models, and parametric as well as non-parametric hidden Markov models. Results include applications to real-world spike-sorting and relational modeling problems, and show that DPVI can offer appealing time/accuracy trade-offs as compared to multiple alternatives.

A method for large scale Gaussian process classification has been recently proposed based on expectation propagation (EP). Such a method allows Gaussian process classifiers to be trained on very large datasets that were out of the reach of previous deployments of EP and has been shown to be competitive with related techniques based on stochastic variational inference. Nevertheless, the memory resources required scale linearly with the dataset size, unlike in variational methods. This is a severe limitation when the number of instances is very large. Here we show that this problem is avoided when stochastic EP is used to train the model.

Many statistical methods for network data parameterize the edge-probability by attributing latent traits to the vertices such as block structure and assume exchangeability in the sense of the Aldous-Hoover representation theorem. Empirical studies of networks indicate that many real-world networks have a power-law distribution of the vertices which in turn implies the number of edges scale slower than quadratically in the number of vertices. These assumptions are fundamentally irreconcilable as the Aldous-Hoover theorem implies quadratic scaling of the number of edges. Recently Caron and Fox (2014) proposed the use of a different notion of exchangeability due to Kallenberg (2009) and obtained a network model which admits power-law behaviour while retaining desirable statistical properties, however this model does not capture latent vertex traits such as block-structure. In this work we re-introduce the use of block-structure for network models obeying Kallenberg's notion of exchangeability and thereby obtain a model which admits the inference of block-structure and edge inhomogeneity. We derive a simple expression for the likelihood and an efficient sampling method. The obtained model is not significantly more difficult to implement than existing approaches to block-modelling and performs well on real network datasets.

There is a widespread need for statistical methods that can analyze high-dimensional datasets with- out imposing restrictive or opaque modeling assumptions. This paper describes a domain-general data analysis method called CrossCat. CrossCat infers multiple non-overlapping views of the data, each consisting of a subset of the variables, and uses a separate nonparametric mixture to model each view. CrossCat is based on approximately Bayesian inference in a hierarchical, nonparamet- ric model for data tables. This model consists of a Dirichlet process mixture over the columns of a data table in which each mixture component is itself an independent Dirichlet process mixture over the rows; the inner mixture components are simple parametric models whose form depends on the types of data in the table. CrossCat combines strengths of mixture modeling and Bayesian net- work structure learning. Like mixture modeling, CrossCat can model a broad class of distributions by positing latent variables, and produces representations that can be efficiently conditioned and sampled from for prediction. Like Bayesian networks, CrossCat represents the dependencies and independencies between variables, and thus remains accurate when there are multiple statistical signals. Inference is done via a scalable Gibbs sampling scheme; this paper shows that it works well in practice. This paper also includes empirical results on heterogeneous tabular data of up to 10 million cells, such as hospital cost and quality measures, voting records, unemployment rates, gene expression measurements, and images of handwritten digits. CrossCat infers structure that is consistent with accepted findings and common-sense knowledge in multiple domains and yields predictive accuracy competitive with generative, discriminative, and model-free alternatives.

Bayesian nonparametric models, such as Gaussian processes, provide a compelling framework for automatic statistical modelling: these models have a high degree of flexibility, and automatically calibrated complexity. However, automating human expertise remains elusive; for example, Gaussian processes with standard kernels struggle on function extrapolation problems that are trivial for human learners. In this paper, we create function extrapolation problems and acquire human responses, and then design a kernel learning framework to reverse engineer the inductive biases of human learners across a set of behavioral experiments. We use the learned kernels to gain psychological insights and to extrapolate in human-like ways that go beyond traditional stationary and polynomial kernels. Finally, we investigate Occam's razor in human and Gaussian process based function learning.

Krysta M. Svore Microsoft Research We introduce a method, rejection filtering, for approximating Bayesian inference using rejection sampling. We not only make the process efficient, but also dramatically reduce the memory required relative to conventional methods by combining rejection sampling with particle filtering to estimate the first two moments of the posterior distribution. We also provide an approximate form of rejection sampling that makes rejection filtering tractable in cases where exact rejection sampling is not efficient. Finally, we present several numerical examples of rejection filtering that show its ability to track time dependent parameters in online settings, and show its performance on MNIST classification problems.