We investigate a local reparameterizaton technique for greatly reducing the variance of stochastic gradients for variational Bayesian inference (SGVB) of a posterior over model parameters, while retaining parallelizability. This local reparameterization translates uncertainty about global parameters into local noise that is independent across datapoints in the minibatch. Such parameterizations can be trivially parallelized and have variance that is inversely proportional to the minibatch size, generally leading to much faster convergence. Additionally, we explore a connection with dropout: Gaussian dropout objectives correspond to SGVB with local reparameterization, a scale-invariant prior and proportionally fixed posterior variance. Our method allows inference of more flexibly parameterized posteriors; specifically, we propose variational dropout, a generalization of Gaussian dropout where the dropout rates are learned, often leading to better models. The method is demonstrated through several experiments.

Online social networks (OSN) contain extensive amount of information about the underlying society that is yet to be explored. One of the most feasible technique to fetch information from OSN, crawling through Application Programming Interface (API) requests, poses serious concerns over the the guarantees of the estimates. In this work, we focus on making reliable statistical inference with limited API crawls. Based on regenerative properties of the random walks, we propose an unbiased estimator for the aggregated sum of functions over edges and proved the connection between variance of the estimator and spectral gap. In order to facilitate Bayesian inference on the true value of the estimator, we derive the approximate posterior distribution of the estimate. Later the proposed ideas are validated with numerical experiments on inference problems in real-world networks.

Sparse representations have proven their efficiency in solving a wide class of inverse problems encountered in signal and image processing. Conversely, enforcing the information to be spread uniformly over representation coefficients exhibits relevant properties in various applications such as digital communications. Anti-sparse regularization can be naturally expressed through an $\ell_{\infty}$-norm penalty. This paper derives a probabilistic formulation of such representations. A new probability distribution, referred to as the democratic prior, is first introduced. Its main properties as well as three random variate generators for this distribution are derived. Then this probability distribution is used as a prior to promote anti-sparsity in a Gaussian linear inverse problem, yielding a fully Bayesian formulation of anti-sparse coding. Two Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are proposed to generate samples according to the posterior distribution. The first one is a standard Gibbs sampler. The second one uses Metropolis-Hastings moves that exploit the proximity mapping of the log-posterior distribution. These samples are used to approximate maximum a posteriori and minimum mean square error estimators of both parameters and hyperparameters. Simulations on synthetic data illustrate the performances of the two proposed samplers, for both complete and over-complete dictionaries. All results are compared to the recent deterministic variational FITRA algorithm.

We propose Macau, a powerful and flexible Bayesian factorization method for heterogeneous data. Our model can factorize any set of entities and relations that can be represented by a relational model, including tensors and also multiple relations for each entity. Macau can also incorporate side information, specifically entity and relation features, which are crucial for predicting sparsely observed relations. Macau scales to millions of entity instances, hundred millions of observations, and sparse entity features with millions of dimensions. To achieve the scale up, we specially designed sampling procedure for entity and relation features that relies primarily on noise injection in linear regressions. We show performance and advanced features of Macau in a set of experiments, including challenging drug-protein activity prediction task.

Given a set of pairwise comparisons, the classical ranking problem computes a single ranking that best represents the preferences of all users. In this paper, we study the problem of inferring individual preferences, arising in the context of making personalized recommendations. In particular, we assume that there are $n$ users of $r$ types; users of the same type provide similar pairwise comparisons for $m$ items according to the Bradley-Terry model. We propose an efficient algorithm that accurately estimates the individual preferences for almost all users, if there are $r \max \{m, n\}\log m \log^2 n$ pairwise comparisons per type, which is near optimal in sample complexity when $r$ only grows logarithmically with $m$ or $n$. Our algorithm has three steps: first, for each user, compute the \emph{net-win} vector which is a projection of its $\binom{m}{2}$-dimensional vector of pairwise comparisons onto an $m$-dimensional linear subspace; second, cluster the users based on the net-win vectors; third, estimate a single preference for each cluster separately. The net-win vectors are much less noisy than the high dimensional vectors of pairwise comparisons and clustering is more accurate after the projection as confirmed by numerical experiments. Moreover, we show that, when a cluster is only approximately correct, the maximum likelihood estimation for the Bradley-Terry model is still close to the true preference.

Action languages have emerged as an important field of Knowledge Representation for reasoning about change and causality in dynamic domains. This article presents Cerbere, a production system designed to perform online causal, temporal and epistemic reasoning based on the Event Calculus. The framework implements the declarative semantics of the underlying logic theories in a forward-chaining rule-based reasoning system, coupling the high expressiveness of its formalisms with the efficiency of rule-based systems. To illustrate its applicability, we present both the modeling of benchmark problems in the field, as well as its utilization in the challenging domain of smart spaces. A hybrid framework that combines logic-based with probabilistic reasoning has been developed, that aims to accommodate activity recognition and monitoring tasks in smart spaces. Under consideration in Theory and Practice of Logic Programming (TPLP)

In this work, a novel solution to the speaker identification problem is proposed through minimization of statistical divergences between the probability distribution (g). of feature vectors from the test utterance and the probability distributions of the feature vector corresponding to the speaker classes. This approach is made more robust to the presence of outliers, through the use of suitably modified versions of the standard divergence measures. The relevant solutions to the minimum distance methods are referred to as the minimum rescaled modified distance estimators (MRMDEs). Three measures were considered - the likelihood disparity, the Hellinger distance and Pearson's chi-square distance. The proposed approach is motivated by the observation that, in the case of the likelihood disparity, when the empirical distribution function is used to estimate g, it becomes equivalent to maximum likelihood classification with Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) for speaker classes, a highly effective approach used, for example, by Reynolds [22] based on Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCCs) as features. Significant improvement in classification accuracy is observed under this approach on the benchmark speech corpus NTIMIT and a new bilingual speech corpus NISIS, with MFCC features, both in isolation and in combination with delta MFCC features. Moreover, the ubiquitous principal component transformation, by itself and in conjunction with the principle of classifier combination, is found to further enhance the performance.

A long-lived autonomous agent should be able to respond online to novel instances of tasks from a familiar domain. Acting online requires 'fast' responses, in terms of rapid convergence, especially when the task instance has a short duration, such as in applications involving interactions with humans. These requirements can be problematic for many established methods for learning to act. In domains where the agent knows that the task instance is drawn from a family of related tasks, albeit without access to the label of any given instance, it can choose to act through a process of policy reuse from a library, rather than policy learning from scratch. In policy reuse, the agent has prior knowledge of the class of tasks in the form of a library of policies that were learnt from sample task instances during an offline training phase. We formalise the problem of policy reuse, and present an algorithm for efficiently responding to a novel task instance by reusing a policy from the library of existing policies, where the choice is based on observed 'signals' which correlate to policy performance. We achieve this by posing the problem as a Bayesian choice problem with a corresponding notion of an optimal response, but the computation of that response is in many cases intractable. Therefore, to reduce the computation cost of the posterior, we follow a Bayesian optimisation approach and define a set of policy selection functions, which balance exploration in the policy library against exploitation of previously tried policies, together with a model of expected performance of the policy library on their corresponding task instances. We validate our method in several simulated domains of interactive, short-duration episodic tasks, showing rapid convergence in unknown task variations.

Topic models are popular for modeling discrete data (e.g., texts, images, videos, links), and provide an efficient way to discover hidden structures/semantics in massive data. One of the core problems in this field is the posterior inference for individual data instances. This problem is particularly important in streaming environments, but is often intractable. In this paper, we investigate the use of the Frank-Wolfe algorithm (FW) for recovering sparse solutions to posterior inference. From detailed elucidation of both theoretical and practical aspects, FW exhibits many interesting properties which are beneficial to topic modeling. We then employ FW to design fast methods, including ML-FW, for learning latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) at large scales. Extensive experiments show that to reach the same predictiveness level, ML-FW can perform tens to thousand times faster than existing state-of-the-art methods for learning LDA from massive/streaming data.

A large number of statistical models are "doubly-intractable": the likelihood normalising term, which is a function of the model parameters, is intractable, as well as the marginal likelihood (model evidence). This means that standard inference techniques to sample from the posterior, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), cannot be used. Examples include, but are not confined to, massive Gaussian Markov random fields, autologistic models and Exponential random graph models. A number of approximate schemes based on MCMC techniques, Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) or analytic approximations to the posterior have been suggested, and these are reviewed here. Exact MCMC schemes, which can be applied to a subset of doubly-intractable distributions, have also been developed and are described in this paper. As yet, no general method exists which can be applied to all classes of models with doubly-intractable posteriors. In addition, taking inspiration from the Physics literature, we study an alternative method based on representing the intractable likelihood as an infinite series. Unbiased estimates of the likelihood can then be obtained by finite time stochastic truncation of the series via Russian Roulette sampling, although the estimates are not necessarily positive. Results from the Quantum Chromodynamics literature are exploited to allow the use of possibly negative estimates in a pseudo-marginal MCMC scheme such that expectations with respect to the posterior distribution are preserved. The methodology is reviewed on well-known examples such as the parameters in Ising models, the posterior for Fisher-Bingham distributions on the $d$-Sphere and a large-scale Gaussian Markov Random Field model describing the Ozone Column data. This leads to a critical assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the methodology with pointers to ongoing research.