The ability to represent complex high dimensional probability distributions in a compact form is one of the key insights in the field of graphical models. Factored representations are ubiquitous in machine learning and lead to major computational advantages. We explore a different type of compact representation based on discrete Fourier representations, complementing the classical approach based on conditional independencies. We show that a large class of probabilistic graphical models have a compact Fourier representation. This theoretical result opens up an entirely new way of approximating a probability distribution. We demonstrate the significance of this approach by applying it to the variable elimination algorithm. Compared with the traditional bucket representation and other approximate inference algorithms, we obtain significant improvements.

We present a framework that couples the syntax and semantics of natural language sentences in a generative model, in order to develop a semantic parser that jointly infers the syntactic, morphological, and semantic representations of a given sentence under the guidance of background knowledge. To generate a sentence in our framework, a semantic statement is first sampled from a prior, such as from a set of beliefs in a knowledge base. Given this semantic statement, a grammar probabilistically generates the output sentence. A joint semantic-syntactic parser is derived that returns the $k$-best semantic and syntactic parses for a given sentence. The semantic prior is flexible, and can be used to incorporate background knowledge during parsing, in ways unlike previous semantic parsing approaches. For example, semantic statements corresponding to beliefs in a knowledge base can be given higher prior probability, type-correct statements can be given somewhat lower probability, and beliefs outside the knowledge base can be given lower probability. The construction of our grammar invokes a novel application of hierarchical Dirichlet processes (HDPs), which in turn, requires a novel and efficient inference approach. We present experimental results showing, for a simple grammar, that our parser outperforms a state-of-the-art CCG semantic parser and scales to knowledge bases with millions of beliefs.

In this work, we empirically explore the question: how can we assess the quality of samples from some target distribution? We assume that the samples are provided by some valid Monte Carlo procedure, so we are guaranteed that the collection of samples will asymptotically approximate the true distribution. Most current evaluation approaches focus on two questions: (1) Has the chain mixed, that is, is it sampling from the distribution? and (2) How independent are the samples (as MCMC procedures produce correlated samples)? Focusing on the case of Bayesian nonnegative matrix factorization, we empirically evaluate standard metrics of sampler quality as well as propose new metrics to capture aspects that these measures fail to expose. The aspect of sampling that is of particular interest to us is the ability (or inability) of sampling methods to move between multiple optima in NMF problems. As a proxy, we propose and study a number of metrics that might quantify the diversity of a set of NMF factorizations obtained by a sampler through quantifying the coverage of the posterior distribution. We compare the performance of a number of standard sampling methods for NMF in terms of these new metrics.

This paper presents a novel kernel-based generative classifier which is defined in a distortion subspace using polynomial series expansion, named Kernel-Distortion (KD) classifier. An iterative kernel selection algorithm is developed to steadily improve classification performance by repeatedly removing and adding kernels. The experimental results on character recognition application not only show that the proposed generative classifier performs better than many existing classifiers, but also illustrate that it has different recognition capability compared to the state-of-the-art discriminative classifier - deep belief network. The recognition diversity indicates that a hybrid combination of the proposed generative classifier and the discriminative classifier could further improve the classification performance. Two hybrid combination methods, cascading and stacking, have been implemented to verify the diversity and the improvement of the proposed classifier. Keywords: Distortion feature space, kernel-based generative classifier, hybrid classification, deep belief nets, character recognition 1. Introduction Learning and inference are two important aspects for any machine learning application.

In this paper, we present a new wrapper feature selection approach based on Jensen-Shannon (JS) divergence, termed feature selection with maximum JS-divergence (FSMJ), for text categorization. Unlike most existing feature selection approaches, the proposed FSMJ approach is based on real-valued features which provide more information for discrimination than binary-valued features used in conventional approaches. We show that the FSMJ is a greedy approach and the JS-divergence monotonically increases when more features are selected. We conduct several experiments on real-life data sets, compared with the state-of-the-art feature selection approaches for text categorization. The superior performance of the proposed FSMJ approach demonstrates its effectiveness and further indicates its wide potential applications on data mining.

Web browsers might soon use fuzzy logic to spot redirection spam and save users from being scammed, phished or opening malicious sites unwittingly, according to researchers in India writing in the International Journal of Electronic Security and Digital Forensics. Redirection spam occurs when a user opens a link in an email that leads to an unexpected and often malicious page, or when they open a page that has been hacked or injected with malware, which then redirects to a malicious page. Often the redirection occurs instantaneously and transparently without the user being aware until it is too late and login details or credit card number have been divulged to the criminal third party. Frequently, there will be a malware payload that infects the user's computer at the same time. According to Kanchan Hans of Amity University, in Noida, India, and colleagues, legitimate web page redirections are a ubiquitous part of the web used for server load balancing, link logging and URL rewriting and shortening.

It is commonplace to encounter nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process may change over time or across domains. The nonstationarity presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper we propose a principled framework to handle nonstationarity, and develop some methods to address three important questions. First, we propose an enhanced constraint-based method to detect variables whose local mechanisms are nonstationary and recover the skeleton of the causal structure over observed variables. Second, we present a way to determine some causal directions by taking advantage of information carried by changing distributions. Third, we develop a method for visualizing the nonstationarity of causal modules. Experimental results on various synthetic and real-world data sets are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of our methods.

Predicting ambulance demand accurately at a fine resolution in time and space (e.g., every hour and 1 km$^2$) is critical for staff / fleet management and dynamic deployment. There are several challenges: though the dataset is typically large-scale, demand per time period and locality is almost always zero. The demand arises from complex urban geography and exhibits complex spatio-temporal patterns, both of which need to captured and exploited. To address these challenges, we propose three methods based on Gaussian mixture models, kernel density estimation, and kernel warping. These methods provide spatio-temporal predictions for Toronto and Melbourne that are significantly more accurate than the current industry practice.

We show how to estimate a model's test error from unlabeled data, on distributions very different from the training distribution, while assuming only that certain conditional independencies are preserved between train and test. We do not need to assume that the optimal predictor is the same between train and test, or that the true distribution lies in any parametric family. We can also efficiently differentiate the error estimate to perform unsupervised discriminative learning. Our technical tool is the method of moments, which allows us to exploit conditional independencies in the absence of a fully-specified model. Our framework encompasses a large family of losses including the log and exponential loss, and extends to structured output settings such as hidden Markov models.

The task of dialog management is commonly decomposed into two sequential subtasks: dialog state tracking and dialog policy learning. In an end-to-end dialog system, the aim of dialog state tracking is to accurately estimate the true dialog state from noisy observations produced by the speech recognition and the natural language understanding modules. The state tracking task is primarily meant to support a dialog policy. From a probabilistic perspective, this is achieved by maintaining a posterior distribution over hidden dialog states composed of a set of context dependent variables. Once a dialog policy is learned, it strives to select an optimal dialog act given the estimated dialog state and a defined reward function. This paper introduces a novel method of dialog state tracking based on a bilinear algebric decomposition model that provides an efficient inference schema through collective matrix factorization. We evaluate the proposed approach on the second Dialog State Tracking Challenge (DSTC-2) dataset and we show that the proposed tracker gives encouraging results compared to the state-of-the-art trackers that participated in this standard benchmark. Finally, we show that the prediction schema is computationally efficient in comparison to the previous approaches.