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Breakthroughs in genetic fuzzy systems, most notably the development of the Genetic Fuzzy Tree methodology, have allowed fuzzy logic based Artificial Intelligences to be developed that can be applied to incredibly complex problems. The ability to have extreme performance and computational efficiency as well as to be robust to uncertainties and randomness, adaptable to changing scenarios, verified and validated to follow safety specifications and operating doctrines via formal methods, and easily designed and implemented are just some of the strengths that this type of control brings. Within this white paper, the authors introduce ALPHA, an Artificial Intelligence that controls flights of Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles in aerial combat missions within an extreme-fidelity simulation environment. To this day, this represents the most complex application of a fuzzy-logic based Artificial Intelligence to an Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle control problem. While development is on-going, the version of ALPHA presented withinwas assessed by Colonel (retired)Gene Lee who described ALPHA as "the most aggressive, responsive, dynamic and credible AI (he's) seen-to-date."

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the underlying graph associated with an Ising model given a number of independent and identically distributed samples. We adopt an \emph{approximate recovery} criterion that allows for a number of missed edges or incorrectly-included edges, in contrast with the widely-studied exact recovery problem. Our main results provide information-theoretic lower bounds on the sample complexity for graph classes imposing constraints on the number of edges, maximal degree, and other properties. We identify a broad range of scenarios where, either up to constant factors or logarithmic factors, our lower bounds match the best known lower bounds for the exact recovery criterion, several of which are known to be tight or near-tight. Hence, in these cases, approximate recovery has a similar difficulty to exact recovery in the minimax sense. Our bounds are obtained via a modification of Fano's inequality for handling the approximate recovery criterion, along with suitably-designed ensembles of graphs that can broadly be classed into two categories: (i) Those containing graphs that contain several isolated edges or cliques and are thus difficult to distinguish from the empty graph; (ii) Those containing graphs for which certain groups of nodes are highly correlated, thus making it difficult to determine precisely which edges connect them. We support our theoretical results on these ensembles with numerical experiments.

Bayesian inference in the presence of an intractable likelihood function is computationally challenging. When following a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to approximate the posterior distribution in this context, one typically either uses MCMC schemes which target the joint posterior of the parameters and some auxiliary latent variables or pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings (MH) schemes which mimic a MH algorithm targeting the marginal posterior of the parameters by approximating unbiasedly the intractable likelihood. In scenarios where the parameters and auxiliary variables are strongly correlated under the posterior and/or this posterior is multimodal, Gibbs sampling or Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) will perform poorly and the pseudo-marginal MH algorithm, as any other MH scheme, will be inefficient for high dimensional parameters. We propose here an original MCMC algorithm, termed pseudo-marginal HMC, which approximates the HMC algorithm targeting the marginal posterior of the parameters. We demonstrate through experiments that pseudo-marginal HMC can outperform significantly both standard HMC and pseudo-marginal MH schemes.

We present a general framework for classifying partially observed dynamical systems based on the idea of learning in the model space. In contrast to the existing approaches using model point estimates to represent individual data items, we employ posterior distributions over models, thus taking into account in a principled manner the uncertainty due to both the generative (observational and/or dynamic noise) and observation (sampling in time) processes. We evaluate the framework on two testbeds - a biological pathway model and a stochastic double-well system. Crucially, we show that the classifier performance is not impaired when the model class used for inferring posterior distributions is much more simple than the observation-generating model class, provided the reduced complexity inferential model class captures the essential characteristics needed for the given classification task.

Directed graphical models provide a useful framework for modeling causal or directional relationships for multivariate data. Prior work has largely focused on identifiability and search algorithms for directed acyclic graphical (DAG) models. In many applications, feedback naturally arises and directed graphical models that permit cycles occur. In this paper we address the issue of identifiability for general directed cyclic graphical (DCG) models satisfying the Markov assumption. In particular, in addition to the faithfulness assumption which has already been introduced for cyclic models, we introduce two new identifiability assumptions, one based on selecting the model with the fewest edges and the other based on selecting the DCG model that entails the maximum number of d-separation rules. We provide theoretical results comparing these assumptions which show that: (1) selecting models with the largest number of d-separation rules is strictly weaker than the faithfulness assumption; (2) unlike for DAG models, selecting models with the fewest edges does not necessarily result in a milder assumption than the faithfulness assumption. We also provide connections between our two new principles and minimality assumptions. We use our identifiability assumptions to develop search algorithms for small-scale DCG models. Our simulation study supports our theoretical results, showing that the algorithms based on our two new principles generally out-perform algorithms based on the faithfulness assumption in terms of selecting the true skeleton for DCG models.

Top Gun was released 30 years ago and it looks as if the Maverick of tomorrow will be made of microchips. Developed by a University of Cincinnati (US) doctoral candidate, an Artificial Intelligence (AI) called ALPHA has consistently beaten other AIs and a retired United States Air Force Colonel in a high-fidelity, air-combat simulator using what's known as a genetic-fuzzy system that relies on off-the-shelf PC processors to do what was thought to be the reserve of supercomputers. Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAVs) have made great strides in recent years, going from items of speculation to the decks of aircraft carriers. But however well they've done in taking off, landing, and carrying out assigned aerial missions, there's still been a big gap between what a human pilot can do and what a combat drone can hope to achieve. Until recently, experienced humans have found it easy to beat UCAVs in simulations after learning their tricks and weaknesses.

A treatment regime is a function that maps individual patient information to a recommended treatment, hence explicitly incorporating the heterogeneity in need for treatment across individuals. Patient responses are dichotomous and can be predicted through an unknown relationship that depends on the patient information and the selected treatment. The goal is to find the treatments that lead to the best patient responses on average. Each experiment is expensive, forcing us to learn the most from each experiment. We adopt a Bayesian approach both to incorporate possible prior information and to update our treatment regime continuously as information accrues, with the potential to allow smaller yet more informative trials and for patients to receive better treatment. By formulating the problem as contextual bandits, we introduce a knowledge gradient policy to guide the treatment assignment by maximizing the expected value of information, for which an approximation method is used to overcome computational challenges. We provide a detailed study on how to make sequential medical decisions under uncertainty to reduce health care costs on a real world knee replacement dataset. We use clustering and LASSO to deal with the intrinsic sparsity in health datasets. We show experimentally that even though the problem is sparse, through careful selection of physicians (versus picking them at random), we can significantly improve the success rates.

This post aims to introduce Gaussian Mixture Models (from now on referred to as GMMs) and explain what they can be used for. To do that I'll be creating some synthetic data and training a GMM on that using rusty-machine. This post is fairly heavy on theory but I promise there is some code. Before jumping into GMMs let's define a more general Mixture Model. A Mixture Model is a probabilistic model used to represent subclasses within a whole population.

Civil unrest events (protests, strikes, and “occupy” events) are common occurrences in both democracies and authoritarian regimes. The study of civil unrest is a key topic for political scientists as it helps capture an important mechanism by which citizenry express themselves. In countries where civil unrest is lawful, qualitative analysis has revealed that more than 75 percent of the protests are planned, organized, or announced in advance; therefore detecting references to future planned events in relevant news and social media is a direct way to develop a protest forecasting system. We report on a system for doing that in this article. It uses a combination of keyphrase learning to identify what to look for, probabilistic soft logic to reason about location occurrences in extracted results, and time normalization to resolve future time mentions. We illustrate the application of our system to 10 countries in Latin America: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Mexico, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Venezuela. Results demonstrate our successes in capturing significant societal unrest in these countries with an average lead time of 4.08 days. We also study the selective superiorities of news media versus social media (Twitter, Facebook) to identify relevant trade-offs.