We present a distributed (non-Bayesian) learning algorithm for the problem of parameter estimation with Gaussian noise. The algorithm is expressed as explicit updates on the parameters of the Gaussian beliefs (i.e. means and precision). We show a convergence rate of $O(1/k)$ with the constant term depending on the number of agents and the topology of the network. Moreover, we show almost sure convergence to the optimal solution of the estimation problem for the general case of time-varying directed graphs.

This revision has corrected derivations, new R/JAGS code, and new diagrams.] Overview "Captain, the prior probability of this character dying and leaving the show is infinitesimal." A primary example of Bayes' rule is for disease diagnosis (or illicit drug screening). The example is invoked routinely to explain the importance of prior probabilities. Here's one version of it: Suppose a diagnostic test has a 97% detection rate and a 5% false alarm rate.

We are interested in learning customers' video preferences from their historic viewing patterns and geographical location. We consider a Bayesian latent factor modeling approach for this task. In order to tune the complexity of the model to best represent the data, we make use of Bayesian nonparameteric techniques. We describe an inference technique that can scale to large real-world data sets. Finally we show results obtained by applying the model to a large internal Netflix data set, that illustrates that the model was able to capture interesting relationships between viewing patterns and geographical location.

In an independence model, the triplets that represent conditional independences between singletons are called elementary. It is known that the elementary triplets represent the independence model unambiguously under some conditions. In this paper, we show how this representation helps performing some operations with independence models, such as finding the dominant triplets or a minimal independence map of an independence model, or computing the union or intersection of a pair of independence models, or performing causal reasoning. For the latter, we rephrase in terms of conditional independences some of Pearl's results for computing causal effects.

In the last few months, I have had several people contact me about their enthusiasm for venturing into the world of data science and using Machine Learning (ML) techniques to probe statistical regularities and build impeccable data-driven products. However, I've observed that some actually lack the necessary mathematical intuition and framework to get useful results. This is the main reason I decided to write this blog post. Recently, there has been an upsurge in the availability of many easy-to-use machine and deep learning packages such as scikit-learn, Weka, Tensorflow etc. Machine Learning theory is a field that intersects statistical, probabilistic, computer science and algorithmic aspects arising from learning iteratively from data and finding hidden insights which can be used to build intelligent applications. Despite the immense possibilities of Machine and Deep Learning, a thorough mathematical understanding of many of these techniques is necessary for a good grasp of the inner workings of the algorithms and getting good results.

In this paper, we attempt to extend Multi Attributive Border Approximation area Comparison (MABAC) approach for multi-attribute decision making (MADM) problems based on type-2 fuzzy sets (IT2FSs). As a special case of IT2FSs interval type-2 trapezoidal fuzzy numbers (IT2TrFNs) are adopted here to deal with uncertainties present in many practical evaluation and selection problems. A systematic description of MABAC based on IT2TrFNs is presented in the current study. The validity and feasibility of the proposed method are illustrated by a practical example of selecting the most suitable candidate for a software company which is heading to hire a system analysis engineer based on few attributes. Finally, a comparison with two other existing MADM methods is described.

This paper presents the development of a hybrid learning system based on Support Vector Machines (SVM), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and domain knowledge to solve prediction problem. The proposed two-stage Domain Knowledge based Fuzzy Information System (DKFIS) improves the prediction accuracy attained by ANFIS alone. The proposed framework has been implemented on a noisy and incomplete dataset acquired from a hydrocarbon field located at western part of India. Here, oil saturation has been predicted from four different well logs i.e. gamma ray, resistivity, density, and clay volume. In the first stage, depending on zero or near zero and non-zero oil saturation levels the input vector is classified into two classes (Class 0 and Class 1) using SVM. The classification results have been further fine-tuned applying expert knowledge based on the relationship among predictor variables i.e. well logs and target variable - oil saturation. Second, an ANFIS is designed to predict non-zero (Class 1) oil saturation values from predictor logs. The predicted output has been further refined based on expert knowledge. It is apparent from the experimental results that the expert intervention with qualitative judgment at each stage has rendered the prediction into the feasible and realistic ranges. The performance analysis of the prediction in terms of four performance metrics such as correlation coefficient (CC), root mean square error (RMSE), and absolute error mean (AEM), scatter index (SI) has established DKFIS as a useful tool for reservoir characterization.

This was the subject of a question asked on Quora: What are the top 10 data mining or machine learning algorithms? Some modern algorithms such as collaborative filtering, recommendation engine, segmentation, or attribution modeling, are missing from the lists below. Algorithms from graph theory (to find the shortest path in a graph, or to detect connected components), from operations research (the simplex, to optimize the supply chain), or from time series, are not listed either. And I could not find MCM (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) and related algorithms used to process hierarchical, spatio-temporal and other Bayesian models. For the last one I'd let you pick one of the following: For the last one I'd let you pick one of the following: My point of view is of course biased, but I would like to also add some algorithms developed or re-developed at the Data Science Central's research lab: These algorithms are described in the article What you wont learn in statistics classes.

This paper describes a computational model, called the Dirichlet process Gaussian mixture model with latent joints (DPGMM-LJ), that can find latent tree structure embedded in data distribution in an unsupervised manner. By combining DPGMM-LJ and a pre-existing body map formation method, we propose a method that enables an agent having multi-link body structure to discover its kinematic structure, i.e., body schema, from tactile information alone. The DPGMM-LJ is a probabilistic model based on Bayesian nonparametrics and an extension of Dirichlet process Gaussian mixture model (DPGMM). In a simulation experiment, we used a simple fetus model that had five body parts and performed structured random movements in a womb-like environment. It was shown that the method could estimate the number of body parts and kinematic structures without any pre-existing knowledge in many cases. Another experiment showed that the degree of motor coordination in random movements affects the result of body schema formation strongly. It is confirmed that the accuracy rate for body schema estimation had the highest value 84.6% when the ratio of motor coordination was 0.9 in our setting. These results suggest that kinematic structure can be estimated from tactile information obtained by a fetus moving randomly in a womb without any visual information even though its accuracy was not so high. They also suggest that a certain degree of motor coordination in random movements and the sufficient dimension of state space that represents the body map are important to estimate body schema correctly.

Bayesian inference is a way to get sharper predictions from your data. It's particularly useful when you don't have as much data as you would like and want to juice every last bit of predictive strength from it. Although it is sometimes described with reverence, Bayesian inference isn't magic or mystical. And even though the math under the hood can get dense, the concepts behind it are completely accessible. In brief, Bayesian inference lets you draw stronger conclusions from your data by folding in what you already know about the answer.