Commonly used in many applications, robust PCA represents an algorithmic attempt to reduce the sensitivity of classical PCA to outliers. The basic idea is to learn a decomposition of some data matrix of interest into low rank and sparse components, the latter representing unwanted outliers. Although the resulting problem is typically NP-hard, convex relaxations provide a computationally-expedient alternative with theoretical support. However, in practical regimes performance guarantees break down and a variety of non-convex alternatives, including Bayesian-inspired models, have been proposed to boost estimation quality. Unfortunately though, without additional a priori knowledge none of these methods can significantly expand the critical operational range such that exact principal subspace recovery is possible. Into this mix we propose a novel pseudo-Bayesian algorithm that explicitly compensates for design weaknesses in many existing non-convex approaches leading to state-of-the-art performance with a sound analytical foundation.

We propose probabilistic latent variable models for multi-view anomaly detection, which is the task of finding instances that have inconsistent views given multi-view data. With the proposed model, all views of a non-anomalous instance are assumed to be generated from a single latent vector. On the other hand, an anomalous instance is assumed to have multiple latent vectors, and its different views are generated from different latent vectors. By inferring the number of latent vectors used for each instance with Dirichlet process priors, we obtain multi-view anomaly scores. The proposed model can be seen as a robust extension of probabilistic canonical correlation analysis for noisy multi-view data. We present Bayesian inference procedures for the proposed model based on a stochastic EM algorithm. The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated in terms of performance when detecting multi-view anomalies.

Arising from many applications at the intersection of decision-making and machine learning, Marginal Maximum A Posteriori (Marginal MAP) problems unify the two main classes of inference, namely maximization (optimization) and marginal inference (counting), and are believed to have higher complexity than both of them. We propose XOR_MMAP, a novel approach to solve the Marginal MAP problem, which represents the intractable counting subproblem with queries to NP oracles, subject to additional parity constraints. XOR_MMAP provides a constant factor approximation to the Marginal MAP problem, by encoding it as a single optimization in a polynomial size of the original problem. We evaluate our approach in several machine learning and decision-making applications, and show that our approach outperforms several state-of-the-art Marginal MAP solvers.

This paper presents Generalized Correspondence-LDA (GC-LDA), a generalization of the Correspondence-LDA model that allows for variable spatial representations to be associated with topics, and increased flexibility in terms of the strength of the correspondence between data types induced by the model. We present three variants of GC-LDA, each of which associates topics with a different spatial representation, and apply them to a corpus of neuroimaging data. In the context of this dataset, each topic corresponds to a functional brain region, where the region's spatial extent is captured by a probability distribution over neural activity, and the region's cognitive function is captured by a probability distribution over linguistic terms. We illustrate the qualitative improvements offered by GC-LDA in terms of the types of topics extracted with alternative spatial representations, as well as the model's ability to incorporate a-priori knowledge from the neuroimaging literature. We furthermore demonstrate that the novel features of GC-LDA improve predictions for missing data.

This paper introduces the variational Rényi bound (VR) that extends traditional variational inference to Rényi's alpha-divergences. This new family of variational methods unifies a number of existing approaches, and enables a smooth interpolation from the evidence lower-bound to the log (marginal) likelihood that is controlled by the value of alpha that parametrises the divergence. The reparameterization trick, Monte Carlo approximation and stochastic optimisation methods are deployed to obtain a tractable and unified framework for optimisation. We further consider negative alpha values and propose a novel variational inference method as a new special case in the proposed framework. Experiments on Bayesian neural networks and variational auto-encoders demonstrate the wide applicability of the VR bound.

In many scientific and engineering applications, we are tasked with the optimisation of an expensive to evaluate black box function f. Traditional methods for this problem assume just the availability of this single function. However, in many cases, cheap approximations to f may be obtainable. For example, the expensive real world behaviour of a robot can be approximated by a cheap computer simulation. We can use these approximations to eliminate low function value regions cheaply and use the expensive evaluations of f in a small but promising region and speedily identify the optimum. We formalise this task as a multi-fidelity bandit problem where the target function and its approximations are sampled from a Gaussian process. We develop MF-GP-UCB, a novel method based on upper confidence bound techniques. In our theoretical analysis we demonstrate that it exhibits precisely the above behaviour, and achieves better regret than strategies which ignore multi-fidelity information. MF-GP-UCB outperforms such naive strategies and other multi-fidelity methods on several synthetic and real experiments.

Variational inference is an umbrella term for algorithms which cast Bayesian inference as optimization. Classically, variational inference uses the Kullback-Leibler divergence to define the optimization. Though this divergence has been widely used, the resultant posterior approximation can suffer from undesirable statistical properties. To address this, we reexamine variational inference from its roots as an optimization problem. We use operators, or functions of functions, to design variational objectives. As one example, we design a variational objective with a Langevin-Stein operator. We develop a black box algorithm, operator variational inference (OPVI), for optimizing any operator objective. Importantly, operators enable us to make explicit the statistical and computational tradeoffs for variational inference. We can characterize different properties of variational objectives, such as objectives that admit data subsampling---allowing inference to scale to massive data---as well as objectives that admit variational programs---a rich class of posterior approximations that does not require a tractable density. We illustrate the benefits of OPVI on a mixture model and a generative model of images.

We present a unified approach for learning the parameters of Sum-Product networks (SPNs). We prove that any complete and decomposable SPN is equivalent to a mixture of trees where each tree corresponds to a product of univariate distributions. Based on the mixture model perspective, we characterize the objective function when learning SPNs based on the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) principle and show that the optimization problem can be formulated as a signomial program. We construct two parameter learning algorithms for SPNs by using sequential monomial approximations (SMA) and the concave-convex procedure (CCCP), respectively. The two proposed methods naturally admit multiplicative updates, hence effectively avoiding the projection operation. With the help of the unified framework, we also show that, in the case of SPNs, CCCP leads to the same algorithm as Expectation Maximization (EM) despite the fact that they are different in general.

Social media and social networking sites have become a global pinboard for exposition and discussion of news, topics, and ideas, where social media users often update their opinions about a particular topic by learning from the opinions shared by their friends. In this context, can we learn a data-driven model of opinion dynamics that is able to accurately forecast users' opinions? In this paper, we introduce SLANT, a probabilistic modeling framework of opinion dynamics, which represents users' opinions over time by means of marked jump diffusion stochastic differential equations, and allows for efficient model simulation and parameter estimation from historical fine grained event data. We then leverage our framework to derive a set of efficient predictive formulas for opinion forecasting and identify conditions under which opinions converge to a steady state. Experiments on data gathered from Twitter show that our model provides a good fit to the data and our formulas achieve more accurate forecasting than alternatives.

We present a new type of probabilistic model which we call DISsimilarity COefficient Networks (DISCO Nets). DISCO Nets allow us to efficiently sample from a posterior distribution parametrised by a neural network. During training, DISCO Nets are learned by minimising the dissimilarity coefficient between the true distribution and the estimated distribution. This allows us to tailor the training to the loss related to the task at hand. We empirically show that (i) by modeling uncertainty on the output value, DISCO Nets outperform equivalent non-probabilistic predictive networks and (ii) DISCO Nets accurately model the uncertainty of the output, outperforming existing probabilistic models based on deep neural networks.