Variational methods that rely on a recognition network to approximate the posterior of directed graphical models offer better inference and learning than previous methods. Recent advances that exploit the capacity and flexibility in this approach have expanded what kinds of models can be trained. However, as a proposal for the posterior, the capacity of the recognition network is limited, which can constrain the representational power of the generative model and increase the variance of Monte Carlo estimates. To address these issues, we introduce an iterative refinement procedure for improving the approximate posterior of the recognition network and show that training with the refined posterior is competitive with state-of-the-art methods. The advantages of refinement are further evident in an increased effective sample size, which implies a lower variance of gradient estimates.

We present a scalable and robust Bayesian method for demand forecasting in the context of a large e-commerce platform, paying special attention to intermittent and bursty target statistics. Inference is approximated by the Newton-Raphson algorithm, reduced to linear-time Kalman smoothing, which allows us to operate on several orders of magnitude larger problems than previous related work. In a study on large real-world sales datasets, our method outperforms competing approaches on fast and medium moving items.

Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) is a very popular model for topic modeling as well as many other problems with latent groups. It is both simple and effective. When the number of topics (or latent groups) is unknown, the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process (HDP) provides an elegant non-parametric extension; however, it is a complex model and it is difficult to incorporate prior knowledge since the distribution over topics is implicit. We propose two new models that extend LDA in a simple and intuitive fashion by directly expressing a distribution over the number of topics. We also propose a new online Bayesian moment matching technique to learn the parameters and the number of topics of those models based on streaming data. The approach achieves higher log-likelihood than batch and online HDP with fixed hyperparameters on several corpora.

In this work we analyze the class prediction of parallel randomized ensembles by majority voting as an urn model. For a given test instance, the ensemble can be viewed as an urn of marbles of different colors. A marble represents an individual classifier. Its color represents the class label prediction of the corresponding classifier. The sequential querying of classifiers in the ensemble can be seen as draws without replacement from the urn. An analysis of this classical urn model based on the hypergeometric distribution makes it possible to estimate the confidence on the outcome of majority voting when only a fraction of the individual predictions is known. These estimates can be used to speed up the prediction by the ensemble. Specifically, the aggregation of votes can be halted when the confidence in the final prediction is sufficiently high. If one assumes a uniform prior for the distribution of possible votes the analysis is shown to be equivalent to a previous one based on Dirichlet distributions. The advantage of the current approach is that prior knowledge on the possible vote outcomes can be readily incorporated in a Bayesian framework. We show how incorporating this type of problem-specific knowledge into the statistical analysis of majority voting leads to faster classification by the ensemble and allows us to estimate the expected average speed-up beforehand.

Recent work on scaling up Gaussian process regression (GPR) to large datasets has primarily focused on sparse GPR, which leverages a small set of basis functions to approximate the full Gaussian process during inference. However, the majority of these approaches are batch methods that operate on the entire training dataset at once, precluding the use of datasets that are streaming or too large to fit into memory. Although previous work has considered incrementally solving variational sparse GPR, most algorithms fail to update the basis functions and therefore perform suboptimally. We propose a novel incremental learning algorithm for variational sparse GPR based on stochastic mirror ascent of probability densities in reproducing kernel Hilbert space. This new formulation allows our algorithm to update basis functions online in accordance with the manifold structure of probability densities for fast convergence. We conduct several experiments and show that our proposed approach achieves better empirical performance in terms of prediction error than the recent state-of-the-art incremental solutions to variational sparse GPR.

We investigate a subclass of exponential family graphical models of which the sufficient statistics are defined by arbitrary additive forms. We propose two $\ell_{2,1}$-norm regularized maximum likelihood estimators to learn the model parameters from i.i.d. samples. The first one is a joint MLE estimator which estimates all the parameters simultaneously. The second one is a node-wise conditional MLE estimator which estimates the parameters for each node individually. For both estimators, statistical analysis shows that under mild conditions the extra flexibility gained by the additive exponential family models comes at almost no cost of statistical efficiency. A Monte-Carlo approximation method is developed to efficiently optimize the proposed estimators. The advantages of our estimators over Gaussian graphical models and Nonparanormal estimators are demonstrated on synthetic and real data sets.

Statistical methods for network data often parameterize the edge-probability by attributing latent traits such as block structure to the vertices and assume exchangeability in the sense of the Aldous-Hoover representation theorem. These assumptions are however incompatible with traits found in real-world networks such as a power-law degree-distribution. Recently, Caron & Fox (2014) proposed the use of a different notion of exchangeability after Kallenberg (2005) and obtained a network model which permits edge-inhomogeneity, such as a power-law degree-distribution whilst retaining desirable statistical properties. However, this model does not capture latent vertex traits such as block-structure. In this work we re-introduce the use of block-structure for network models obeying Kallenberg’s notion of exchangeability and thereby obtain a collapsed model which both admits the inference of block-structure and edge inhomogeneity. We derive a simple expression for the likelihood and an efficient sampling method. The obtained model is not significantly more difficult to implement than existing approaches to block-modelling and performs well on real network datasets.

The multivariate normal density is a monotonic function of the distance to the mean, and its ellipsoidal shape is due to the underlying Euclidean metric. We suggest to replace this metric with a locally adaptive, smoothly changing (Riemannian) metric that favors regions of high local density. The resulting locally adaptive normal distribution (LAND) is a generalization of the normal distribution to the "manifold" setting, where data is assumed to lie near a potentially low-dimensional manifold embedded in R^D. The LAND is parametric, depending only on a mean and a covariance, and is the maximum entropy distribution under the given metric. The underlying metric is, however, non-parametric. We develop a maximum likelihood algorithm to infer the distribution parameters that relies on a combination of gradient descent and Monte Carlo integration. We further extend the LAND to mixture models, and provide the corresponding EM algorithm. We demonstrate the efficiency of the LAND to fit non-trivial probability distributions over both synthetic data, and EEG measurements of human sleep.

Given a task of predicting Y from X, a loss function L, and a set of probability distributions Gamma on (X,Y), what is the optimal decision rule minimizing the worst-case expected loss over Gamma? In this paper, we address this question by introducing a generalization of the maximum entropy principle. Applying this principle to sets of distributions with marginal on X constrained to be the empirical marginal, we provide a minimax interpretation of the maximum likelihood problem over generalized linear models as well as some popular regularization schemes. For quadratic and logarithmic loss functions we revisit well-known linear and logistic regression models. Moreover, for the 0-1 loss we derive a classifier which we call the minimax SVM. The minimax SVM minimizes the worst-case expected 0-1 loss over the proposed Gamma by solving a tractable optimization problem. We perform several numerical experiments to show the power of the minimax SVM in outperforming the SVM.

Bayesian optimization is a prominent method for optimizing expensive to evaluate black-box functions that is prominently applied to tuning the hyperparameters of machine learning algorithms. Despite its successes, the prototypical Bayesian optimization approach - using Gaussian process models - does not scale well to either many hyperparameters or many function evaluations. Attacking this lack of scalability and flexibility is thus one of the key challenges of the field. We present a general approach for using flexible parametric models (neural networks) for Bayesian optimization, staying as close to a truly Bayesian treatment as possible. We obtain scalability through stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, whose robustness we improve via a scale adaptation. Experiments including multi-task Bayesian optimization with 21 tasks, parallel optimization of deep neural networks and deep reinforcement learning show the power and flexibility of this approach.