Uncertainty
Rare Disease Physician Targeting: A Factor Graph Approach
Cai, Yong, Wang, Yunlong, Dai, Dong
In rare disease physician targeting, a major challenge is how to identify physicians who are treating diagnosed or underdiagnosed rare diseases patients. Rare diseases have extremely low incidence rate. For a specified rare disease, only a small number of patients are affected and a fractional of physicians are involved. The existing targeting methodologies, such as segmentation and profiling, are developed under mass market assumption. They are not suitable for rare disease market where the target classes are extremely imbalanced. The authors propose a graphical model approach to predict targets by jointly modeling physician and patient features from different data spaces and utilizing the extra relational information. Through an empirical example with medical claim and prescription data, the proposed approach demonstrates better accuracy in finding target physicians. The graph representation also provides visual interpretability of relationship among physicians and patients. The model can be extended to incorporate more complex dependency structures. This article contributes to the literature of exploring the benefit of utilizing relational dependencies among entities in healthcare industry.
Poisson--Gamma Dynamical Systems
Schein, Aaron, Zhou, Mingyuan, Wallach, Hanna
We introduce a new dynamical system for sequentially observed multivariate count data. This model is based on the gamma--Poisson construction---a natural choice for count data---and relies on a novel Bayesian nonparametric prior that ties and shrinks the model parameters, thus avoiding overfitting. We present an efficient MCMC inference algorithm that advances recent work on augmentation schemes for inference in negative binomial models. Finally, we demonstrate the model's inductive bias using a variety of real-world data sets, showing that it exhibits superior predictive performance over other models and infers highly interpretable latent structure.
Professor in Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (132964) NTNU - Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet
The department's research in Machine Learning contributes to the state-of-the-art of individual methods and algorithms as well as combinations of methods targeting particular tasks, for example, combining data-intensive methods with knowledge-based methods to produce user explanations for decision support. Our strongest contributions to the international research front until now have been within Bayesian learning and probabilistic reasoning, evolutionary learning and neural networks, and instance-based learning and case-based reasoning. In addition, we have ongoing activities at a high international level within large-scale data and information management. Over the last years there has been an increased interest in combined methods, e.g.
An Introduction to Fuzzy Logic Applications in Intelligent Ronald R. Yager Springer
An Introduction to Fuzzy Logic Applications in Intelligent Systems consists of a collection of chapters written by leading experts in the field of fuzzy sets. Each chapter addresses an area where fuzzy sets have been applied to situations broadly related to intelligent systems. The volume provides an introduction to and an overview of recent applications of fuzzy sets to various areas of intelligent systems. Its purpose is to provide information and easy access for people new to the field. The book also serves as an excellent reference for researchers in the field and those working in the specifics of systems development.
Computational rationality: A converging paradigm for intelligence in brains, minds, and machines
After growing up together, and mostly growing apart in the second half of the 20th century, the fields of artificial intelligence (AI), cognitive science, and neuroscience are reconverging on a shared view of the computational foundations of intelligence that promotes valuable cross-disciplinary exchanges on questions, methods, and results. We chart advances over the past several decades that address challenges of perception and action under uncertainty through the lens of computation. Advances include the development of representations and inferential procedures for large-scale probabilistic inference and machinery for enabling reflection and decisions about tradeoffs in effort, precision, and timeliness of computations. These tools are deployed toward the goal of computational rationality: identifying decisions with highest expected utility, while taking into consideration the costs of computation in complex real-world problems in which most relevant calculations can only be approximated. We highlight key concepts with examples that show the potential for interchange between computer science, cognitive science, and neuroscience.
Judea Pearl, a Big Brain Behind Artificial Intelligence, Wins Turing Award
The Turing award, in existence since 1966, comes with a $250,000 prize funded by Google and Intel. Last year's award went to Leslie Valiant, a Harvard University computer scientist. One past winner, Internet pioneer Vinton Cerf, says Pearl's accomplishments have "redefined the term'thinking machine'" over the past 30 years. Pearl's efforts have had "a pervasive influence not only on machine learning but on natural language processing, computer vision, robotics, computational biology, econometrics, cognitive science and statistics," Cerf said in a statement. The UCLA computer science professor is widely credited with coining the term "Bayesian Network," which refers to a statistical model ACM describes as mimicking "the neural activities of the human brain, constantly exchanging messages without benefit of a supervisor."
PC AI - Fuzzy Logic
Overview: Fuzzy logic is a superset of conventional (Boolean) logic that has been extended to handle the uncertainty in data. It was introduced by Dr. Lotfi Zadeh of UC/Berkeley in the 1960's as a means to model the uncertainty of natural language. Fuzzy logic is useful to processes like manufacturing because of its ability to handle situations that the traditional true/false logic can't adequately deal with. It lets a process specialist describe, in everyday language, how to control actions or make decisions without having to describe the complex behavior. See "Fuzzy Logic and Neural Networks - Practical Tools for Process Management" (PC AI May/June 1994, p. 17) for a clear and concise explanation of Fuzzy Logic.
Software for Data Mining, Analytics,Data Science, and Knowledge Discovery
Classification software: building models to separate 2 or more discrete classes using Multiple methods Decision Tree Rules Neural Bayesian SVM Genetic, Rough Sets, Fuzzy Logic and other approaches Analysis of results, ROC Social Network Analysis, Link Analysis, and Visualization software Text Analysis, Text Mining, and Information Retrieval (IR) Web Analytics and Social Media Analytics software. BI (Business Intelligence), Database and OLAP software Data Transformation, Data Cleaning, Data Cleansing Libraries, Components and Developer Kits for creating embedded data mining applications Web Content Mining, web scraping, screen scraping.